Lustrous-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,699

lifetime

Volume

$1.11M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$652

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-10 15:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

75% 100% +$2

Politics

24% 100% +$10

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	200	$158.9K	82,468	83,527	-1,058	open	—	04-21 20:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	117	$70.6K	68,420	9,311	+59,109	open	—	04-30 21:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	23	$58.6K	23,915	35,865	-11,950	open	—	06-22 16:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	77	$57.0K	39,659	20,472	+19,187	open	—	05-31 21:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	41	$52.5K	25,898	27,419	-1,521	open	—	05-28 17:13
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	61	$45.5K	26,465	20,049	+6,416	open	—	07-31 21:07
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	40	$43.1K	40,585	5,118	+35,467	open	—	08-07 19:02
will germany strike iran by march 31	52	$42.8K	21,756	21,708	+48	open	—	03-24 06:57
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	84	$38.8K	40,709	1,638	+39,071	open	—	03-28 21:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	62	$38.5K	22,002	22,402	-400	open	—	03-17 22:00
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$37.4K	19,373	19,373	+0	open	—	03-19 19:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$35.9K	35,240	784	+34,456	open	—	04-08 15:37
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	16	$33.3K	34,248	0	+34,248	open	—	02-07 07:40
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	29	$28.2K	19,697	10,210	+9,487	open	—	04-15 21:08
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	23	$19.1K	18,707	506	+18,201	open	—	06-30 00:00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	65	$18.8K	11,111	11,111	+0	open	—	04-05 23:15
Netanyahu out by April 30?	62	$17.3K	9,054	9,054	+0	open	—	03-25 15:13
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	30	$16.9K	11,859	7,109	+4,750	open	—	07-28 07:17
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	14	$13.6K	14,193	0	+14,193	open	—	05-15 19:24
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	20	$13.2K	6,814	6,814	+0	open	—	04-22 14:09
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$12.3K	6,228	6,228	+0	open	—	03-10 14:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	16	$12.0K	12,313	0	+12,313	open	—	05-15 21:40
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	26	$10.6K	5,594	5,594	+0	open	—	04-06 08:46
Iran leadership change by March 13?	13	$10.6K	5,624	5,624	+0	open	—	03-12 18:13
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	14	$10.5K	5,646	5,646	+0	open	—	02-08 10:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$10.4K	10,481	0	+10,481	open	—	04-08 21:45
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	17	$8.8K	8,848	0	+8,848	open	—	05-13 22:06
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	29	$8.8K	5,328	4,805	+523	open	—	07-28 20:44
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	51	$8.1K	8,704	0	+8,704	open	—	07-08 23:44
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	4	$7.6K	4,264	4,264	+0	open	—	08-01 11:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 15:51:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	939	76¢	$710	0x363a98…
08-09 08:24:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x0b4ad1…
08-09 08:23:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0x9e7566…
08-09 08:23:01	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x12bc2b…
08-09 08:22:25	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xf5c351…
08-09 08:21:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x0d15ac…
08-09 08:21:27	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xa6c787…
08-09 08:21:22	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	42	81¢	$34	0x00f47d…
08-09 08:21:16	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	42	81¢	$34	0x9a7c7c…
08-09 08:21:07	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	42	81¢	$34	0x077640…
08-09 08:21:04	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	41	81¢	$33	0x3faf1d…
08-09 08:21:01	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	41	81¢	$33	0xabc7e2…
08-09 08:20:57	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	41	81¢	$33	0x5c8840…
08-09 08:20:54	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0x115df6…
08-09 08:20:46	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	29	81¢	$24	0xa58768…
08-09 08:20:43	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x1c218e…
08-09 08:20:40	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0xcca126…
08-09 08:20:37	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x0d35a7…
08-09 08:20:33	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0xfe4fc5…
08-09 08:20:28	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0xf6cd23…
08-09 08:20:25	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x55c660…
08-09 08:20:18	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x74c37e…
08-09 08:20:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x1fe2c8…
08-09 08:20:12	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x9748e1…
08-09 08:20:04	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0xe8a351…
08-09 08:20:03	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x25206b…
08-09 08:20:00	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x0486ba…
08-09 08:19:54	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x0fd4f7…
08-09 08:19:46	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x1c3e44…
08-09 08:19:36	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	14	81¢	$11	0xbcf639…
08-09 08:19:33	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x5da337…
08-09 08:19:25	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	61	81¢	$49	0x8416bf…
08-09 08:12:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	950	96¢	$912	0xe4267b…
08-09 08:07:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	1,900	96¢	$1,824	0x3e0a7a…
08-08 23:35:07	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	130	96¢	$125	0xe34367…
08-08 23:34:09	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	307	96¢	$294	0x89780f…
08-08 16:38:55	will trump speak to maria corina machado in august 20260731154203520	No	BUY	168	95¢	$160	0xeb7fde…
08-07 20:50:12	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	384	95¢	$365	0x474755…
08-07 19:02:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	457	97¢	$445	0x5914b0…
08-07 18:42:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0xe5e391…
08-07 18:42:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xe0b909…
08-07 18:42:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	330	97¢	$321	0x57f092…
08-07 18:42:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x54fede…
08-06 21:07:29	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	819	97¢	$798	0x9e9fe0…
08-06 19:29:30	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	143	94¢	$134	0xff962c…
08-06 16:34:21	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	BUY	861	88¢	$758	0xcd5017…
08-04 20:40:30	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	97	94¢	$91	0x491752…
08-03 12:36:59	will trump speak to maria corina machado in august 20260731154203520	No	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0xd47a80…
08-02 17:36:42	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x0dae59…
08-01 11:43:21	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	2,006	92¢	$1,846	0x31c601…
08-01 11:28:18	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	4,264	91¢	$3,880	0x61cc29…
07-31 22:28:21	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	622	90¢	$560	0x597223…
07-31 21:08:11	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	42	89¢	$37	0xd5ac3a…
07-31 21:07:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0xbbd700…
07-30 19:35:24	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	907	94¢	$853	0x4ebfd1…
07-30 19:16:50	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	847	100¢	$844	0x00ef4c…
07-30 12:26:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,529	95¢	$2,400	0x0b5d91…
07-30 06:43:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	2,339	100¢	$2,334	0xddec0a…
07-29 22:05:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	3,221	94¢	$3,040	0x954c62…
07-29 22:04:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	3,118	100¢	$3,109	0x0aa85b…
07-29 22:02:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,789	94¢	$1,691	0xc58e73…
07-29 22:00:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1,701	100¢	$1,696	0xed4ee7…
07-28 21:45:40	will turkey rejoin the f 35 program by december 31 2026 20260708215836390	No	BUY	201	88¢	$177	0x1f9b63…
07-28 21:45:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	178	100¢	$177	0xa37b94…
07-28 20:44:19	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x7fc689…
07-28 20:43:53	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x47f481…
07-28 20:40:28	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	81	93¢	$76	0xcc8b79…
07-28 20:40:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0xa75c46…
07-28 20:36:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,576	95¢	$1,494	0x4a1919…
07-28 20:35:47	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1,500	100¢	$1,494	0xa628e8…
07-28 07:17:13	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	705	88¢	$620	0xc61c4f…
07-28 07:16:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	624	100¢	$621	0x1505b5…
07-27 20:18:09	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	179	91¢	$163	0x46a48c…
07-27 06:35:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	3,324	94¢	$3,141	0x39effc…
07-27 06:34:30	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	3,156	99¢	$3,134	0x32ab22…
07-26 11:45:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	169	99¢	$168	0x1af67f…
07-26 11:40:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	6,700	95¢	$6,365	0x37d560…
07-26 11:36:58	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	2,407	99¢	$2,390	0xf23953…
07-26 11:36:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	4,000	99¢	$3,972	0x13b2f7…
07-26 11:34:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,211	95¢	$1,150	0xbdba40…
07-26 09:17:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	No	SELL	1,820	62¢	$1,128	0xed6152…
07-26 09:15:21	will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	No	SELL	68	65¢	$44	0x69105b…
07-25 18:52:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,107	92¢	$1,022	0x1c534d…
07-25 18:49:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,266	92¢	$1,168	0x792310…
07-25 14:33:54	will turkey rejoin the f 35 program by december 31 2026 20260708215836390	No	BUY	117	88¢	$103	0xe354a3…
07-25 14:32:54	will turkey rejoin the f 35 program by june 30 2027 20260708215836391	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x3efdae…
07-25 14:31:03	will turkey rejoin the f 35 program by june 30 2027 20260708215836391	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xa6d581…
07-25 11:45:06	will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	No	SELL	181	63¢	$114	0x72aa64…
07-25 08:53:37	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	149	89¢	$132	0xe8f933…
07-25 08:53:10	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x780c9b…
07-25 08:53:06	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	220	88¢	$193	0x0552f7…
07-25 07:35:40	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	118	86¢	$101	0x33aa39…
07-25 07:35:00	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	SELL	108	94¢	$101	0x688ab1…
07-25 07:33:48	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	197	86¢	$168	0x56b30c…
07-25 07:32:21	will turkey join the abraham accords before 2027	No	SELL	111	91¢	$101	0x4321b0…
07-25 07:31:21	will qatar join the abraham accords before 2027	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x4f780e…
07-25 07:26:30	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0xa1a228…
07-25 07:22:52	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	604	89¢	$538	0x48200c…
07-25 07:21:00	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	598	90¢	$538	0xd32f46…
07-25 07:14:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xa5f665…