Lustrous-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

+$989

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,339

lifetime

Volume

$879.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$657

Open exposure

$31.7K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-08 15:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

73% 100% +$2

Politics

26% 100% +$10

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	+23,915	$22,928	97¢	$23.2K	+$257	06-05 23:31
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+4,058	$3,379	90¢	$3.7K	+$294	06-07 00:10
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+1,966	$1,553	90¢	$1.8K	+$207	05-31 21:51
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	+1,523	$1,435	99¢	$1.5K	+$72	06-01 16:54
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+850	$621	88¢	$748	+$127	06-08 15:28
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+704	$604	90¢	$631	+$26	06-02 20:21
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	+211	$180	88¢	$186	+$6	06-04 12:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	200	$158.9K	82,468	83,527	-1,058	open	—	04-21 20:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	117	$70.6K	68,420	9,311	+59,109	open	—	04-30 21:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	77	$57.0K	39,659	20,472	+19,187	open	—	05-31 21:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	41	$52.5K	25,898	27,419	-1,521	open	—	05-28 17:13
will germany strike iran by march 31	52	$42.8K	21,756	21,708	+48	open	—	03-24 06:57
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	84	$38.8K	40,709	1,638	+39,071	open	—	03-28 21:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	62	$38.5K	22,002	22,402	-400	open	—	03-17 22:00
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$37.4K	19,373	19,373	+0	open	—	03-19 19:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$35.9K	35,240	784	+34,456	open	—	04-08 15:37
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	16	$33.3K	34,248	0	+34,248	open	—	02-07 07:40
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	29	$28.2K	19,697	10,210	+9,487	open	—	04-15 21:08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	20	$22.9K	23,915	0	+23,915	open	—	06-05 23:31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	65	$18.8K	11,111	11,111	+0	open	—	04-05 23:15
Netanyahu out by April 30?	62	$17.3K	9,054	9,054	+0	open	—	03-25 15:13
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	14	$13.6K	14,193	0	+14,193	open	—	05-15 19:24
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	20	$13.2K	6,814	6,814	+0	open	—	04-22 14:09
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$12.3K	6,228	6,228	+0	open	—	03-10 14:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	16	$12.0K	12,313	0	+12,313	open	—	05-15 21:40
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	26	$10.6K	5,594	5,594	+0	open	—	04-06 08:46
Iran leadership change by March 13?	13	$10.6K	5,624	5,624	+0	open	—	03-12 18:13
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	14	$10.5K	5,646	5,646	+0	open	—	02-08 10:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$10.4K	10,481	0	+10,481	open	—	04-08 21:45
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	17	$8.8K	8,848	0	+8,848	open	—	05-13 22:06
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	16	$7.5K	10,121	0	+10,121	open	—	06-07 15:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	112	$7.3K	3,750	3,750	-0	open	—	06-07 14:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$7.0K	7,070	0	+7,070	open	—	05-22 21:51
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	13	$6.7K	3,433	3,433	+0	open	—	04-22 19:12
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	9	$6.2K	5,597	1,539	+4,058	open	—	06-07 00:10
iran leadership change by march 31	7	$5.9K	3,479	3,479	+0	open	—	03-22 10:54
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	9	$5.6K	4,273	2,306	+1,966	open	—	05-31 21:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 15:28:21	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	166	91¢	$151	0xfe8280…
06-08 14:51:15	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	510	86¢	$438	0x613cf5…
06-08 14:49:34	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0x7655d2…
06-08 14:49:12	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	160	91¢	$146	0x1813d6…
06-08 14:48:13	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	557	89¢	$498	0xdbc151…
06-07 15:30:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	152	65¢	$99	0x10b124…
06-07 15:10:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	176	63¢	$111	0xe7c971…
06-07 15:09:39	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	424	63¢	$268	0x9af427…
06-07 14:53:09	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	2,948	64¢	$1,878	0x85a897…
06-07 14:42:03	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xda3f7c…
06-07 14:39:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2,366	98¢	$2,328	0xa0097a…
06-07 14:03:22	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0x1a3f50…
06-07 14:02:45	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	613	61¢	$374	0xc24a65…
06-07 14:02:06	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	899	61¢	$548	0xca8b5e…
06-07 13:54:15	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	178	61¢	$108	0xcaf301…
06-07 13:52:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	500	61¢	$305	0xcd3a1d…
06-07 13:45:37	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	254	61¢	$155	0xca6db2…
06-07 13:43:39	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	45	61¢	$28	0x41a5dc…
06-07 00:10:07	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	400	93¢	$372	0xcffa79…
06-07 00:09:58	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	1,139	93¢	$1,059	0xe6697e…
06-06 21:13:21	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	131	84¢	$110	0x6111aa…
06-06 17:10:54	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xd3801f…
06-06 15:54:18	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	207	93¢	$193	0x86c6a9…
06-05 23:31:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xf710a2…
06-05 23:31:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	600	96¢	$575	0xa82172…
06-05 23:26:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xf63cad…
06-05 23:24:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x8b6a34…
06-05 23:24:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x1f5ff7…
06-05 23:24:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x0ca7a0…
06-05 23:24:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xe357fe…
06-05 22:48:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	71	96¢	$68	0x19f080…
06-05 22:34:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x70b234…
06-05 22:33:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x4b41e2…
06-05 22:29:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	282	96¢	$270	0x109c3b…
06-05 22:23:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xd2257d…
06-05 22:22:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,384	98¢	$1,359	0xfa6298…
06-05 22:03:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	840	95¢	$798	0xc4f838…
06-05 21:57:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	8,257	96¢	$7,927	0x37ecc2…
06-05 21:09:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	3,800	96¢	$3,648	0xcdb956…
06-05 19:38:21	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	245	89¢	$219	0x29a2da…
06-04 20:03:22	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1,139	86¢	$980	0x33014b…
06-04 15:35:09	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	2,420	94¢	$2,266	0x6c98a8…
06-04 15:32:00	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xac2078…
06-04 15:20:06	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	781	94¢	$731	0xe5e29b…
06-04 15:09:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	698	94¢	$653	0x9d55a4…
06-04 12:48:55	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	BUY	87	85¢	$74	0x48169b…
06-04 03:54:13	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	1,263	100¢	$1,261	0x548581…
06-04 03:42:30	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May?	No	SELL	729	100¢	$728	0x5a07e1…
06-04 00:32:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	62	97¢	$60	0x78a2c3…
06-04 00:31:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0ad86f…
06-04 00:29:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x19ca5a…
06-04 00:29:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x5ce721…
06-04 00:29:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xbf9696…
06-04 00:28:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$9	0x376d01…
06-04 00:28:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3561ee…
06-04 00:27:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x735650…
06-04 00:25:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x0fc94a…
06-04 00:22:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xb7f273…
06-04 00:22:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$973	0x723f5d…
06-04 00:19:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x86ba61…
06-04 00:19:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0dfa10…
06-04 00:17:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x4087a0…
06-04 00:17:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x930a63…
06-04 00:12:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x815264…
06-04 00:12:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x2b4935…
06-04 00:10:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x468fd1…
06-04 00:09:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xab7eda…
06-04 00:04:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x242e8f…
06-04 00:04:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xec812a…
06-04 00:04:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0xede7a1…
06-03 23:58:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xca2b51…
06-03 23:57:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x70d86b…
06-03 23:55:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xee0fa8…
06-03 23:55:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x03f9a3…
06-03 23:53:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	96	97¢	$93	0xf257e5…
06-03 23:53:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	69	97¢	$67	0xdf9df9…
06-03 23:53:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x932b2f…
06-03 23:53:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x711df5…
06-03 23:53:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x0ae397…
06-03 23:53:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xc40342…
06-03 23:53:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xbc65ac…
06-03 23:53:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x883b1b…
06-03 23:53:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x70f5a2…
06-03 23:06:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	74	97¢	$72	0x5add89…
06-03 23:06:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x1f4e70…
06-03 23:05:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x5a8776…
06-03 23:03:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x2b6cb7…
06-03 23:02:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xf7b47d…
06-03 23:02:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0x62a577…
06-03 23:01:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6fa98a…
06-03 22:51:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1f2bb5…
06-03 22:51:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x6478da…
06-03 22:49:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x8c0c54…
06-03 22:49:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa98cf6…
06-03 22:48:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x52b4e5…
06-03 22:47:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xec226b…
06-03 22:47:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0x696b05…
06-03 22:47:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x2c1f3f…
06-03 22:47:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xb8de95…
06-03 22:47:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x9d4903…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	64	$19.7M	18,906	06-09 17:24
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	64	$705.4K	9,159	06-10 03:17
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	52	$181.6K	774	06-08 20:17
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	50	$162.4K	13,740	06-01 05:09
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	49	$6.14K	1,113	06-04 05:50
Tough-Mask 0xad52…11ac	47	$114.3K	1,258	06-09 19:31
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	47	$10.6K	1,003	06-08 23:02
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	46	$244.2K	16,134	06-10 00:44