Optimistic-Meal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$172

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-02 04:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

45% — —

Other

30% 0% $-1

Politics

18% 100% +$1

Tech

4% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	-5	$-4	46¢	$-3	+$1	05-28 05:13
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	-2	$-1	80¢	$-1	$-0	05-28 05:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$1	18¢	$1	$-0	05-28 05:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	2	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	02-05 20:37
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	1	$23	103	0	+103	open	—	02-05 20:37
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$16	31	0	+31	open	—	04-11 09:09
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	01-31 17:24
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-28 05:10
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	1	$4	0	5	-5	open	—	05-28 05:13
Nothing Ever Happens: March	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-19 18:50
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$3	6	6	+0	open	—	03-09 19:29
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$3	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 00:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$3	9	0	+9	open	—	03-05 18:41
us strike on somalia by march 7 324	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	03-09 19:32
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	03-09 15:55
Major US official out by April 30?	2	$2	21	0	+21	open	—	04-28 17:52
will bitcoin dip to 67000 on march 6	2	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	03-06 19:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-05 18:41
btc updown 5m 1772890200	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-07 13:30
will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	2	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	03-06 16:40
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	1	$1	0	2	-2	open	—	05-28 05:14
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	1	$1	0	2	-2	open	—	01-19 00:26
btc updown 5m 1772992500	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-08 17:57
will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-04 17:52
Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-29 02:21
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	04-01 18:46
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$1	50	0	+50	open	—	03-17 11:54
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-04 17:52
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	03-08 02:57
will epstein data set 9 be released before march 598	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	01-19 00:29
Kash Patel out by May 31?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-29 02:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	04-04 18:03
will bitcoin reach 72000 on march 6	1	$1	36	0	+36	open	—	03-06 19:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 04:15:18	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd1e0e0…
05-28 05:15:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x683bc2…
05-28 05:14:55	Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb98f14…
05-28 05:14:08	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x77a83c…
05-28 05:13:12	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$4	0xac6296…
05-28 05:10:24	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7140b2…
05-19 18:50:38	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xd80536…
04-30 01:33:42	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x56203c…
04-29 02:21:00	Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe7c040…
04-29 02:13:50	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x138bc3…
04-28 17:55:58	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2f7e1f…
04-28 17:54:28	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x727ea7…
04-28 17:53:54	Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4868a8…
04-28 17:52:46	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x22d208…
04-28 17:52:08	Major US official out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe058e4…
04-25 16:31:26	Major US official out by April 30?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x54466b…
04-16 02:38:08	Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1cf7d9…
04-16 00:55:08	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0xadd16a…
04-11 09:09:59	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xecf2cb…
04-05 10:37:53	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4a8fbb…
04-05 10:37:49	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbe7e5a…
04-04 18:04:15	btc updown 5m 1775325600	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc3bd20…
04-04 18:03:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xde62de…
04-04 18:03:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x49cabe…
04-01 18:46:59	will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8fcd90…
03-26 22:26:43	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x85a93c…
03-17 11:54:31	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x38e9dc…
03-17 11:54:23	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe7c9b0…
03-17 11:54:15	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xee155e…
03-17 11:54:09	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbf72be…
03-17 11:54:07	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x62e90a…
03-10 17:36:43	btc updown 5m 1773164100	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc0cfd9…
03-09 19:32:47	us strike on somalia by march 7 324	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x3c9a7f…
03-09 19:29:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x965f09…
03-09 19:27:47	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfd078b…
03-09 15:56:27	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x48375b…
03-09 15:56:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb4f29a…
03-09 15:55:59	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8a1645…
03-09 10:43:17	btc updown 5m 1773052800	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3ace0c…
03-08 17:57:47	btc updown 5m 1772992500	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa43ca9…
03-08 03:00:39	will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x574875…
03-08 02:59:43	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0f70c7…
03-08 02:57:53	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa27071…
03-08 02:55:33	will russia capture rodynske by march 31	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc4952a…
03-07 13:30:45	btc updown 5m 1772890200	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xeae452…
03-07 13:30:43	btc updown 5m 1772890200	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa6004d…
03-07 08:51:07	btc updown 5m 1772873400	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf659ac…
03-06 19:16:49	will bitcoin reach 72000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xc48449…
03-06 19:16:33	will bitcoin dip to 67000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xde861d…
03-06 19:16:07	will bitcoin dip to 65000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x9ee284…
03-06 19:14:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x162050…
03-06 19:14:43	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc5f1ce…
03-06 16:40:53	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb5915e…
03-06 16:40:41	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x2cf5d3…
03-06 16:39:49	will bitcoin dip to 67000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe3f175…
03-05 18:43:33	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x120f16…
03-05 18:42:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xdfc200…
03-05 18:41:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8446ed…
03-05 18:41:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x0ee271…
03-05 17:27:37	will new zealand win the 2026 icc mens t20 world cup	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x55d2fa…
03-05 14:38:51	will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q1 2026	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4257e7…
03-04 17:52:31	will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7ccd45…
03-04 17:52:19	will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x727580…
03-04 17:46:13	will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5cefcb…
03-04 17:44:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x29ea4c…
03-04 17:43:35	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x0fc6fe…
03-04 17:42:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x07e875…
03-04 17:26:21	us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf6ecb3…
03-04 17:26:07	chatgpt full outage by march 15	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb8a269…
03-04 17:23:39	ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 bog1	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x9d2791…
03-04 17:23:17	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xdba736…
03-04 17:22:35	epl bri ars 2026 03 04 bri	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x19e4ab…
03-04 17:22:07	btc updown 5m 1772644800	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x08aa3e…
03-04 16:57:23	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xae5bcc…
03-04 16:55:37	btc updown 5m 1772643300	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xbc1332…
03-04 14:22:53	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x71ad40…
03-04 14:22:43	will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x3d03ca…
03-04 14:21:31	btc updown 5m 1772634000	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x514c08…
03-04 14:19:51	will chatgpt be back in as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 15 744 344	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x371568…
03-04 14:10:39	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8b9860…
03-04 14:09:47	us strike on somalia by march 7 324	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8a8846…
03-04 14:03:53	will zionist or zionism be said at the oscars	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1bcb24…
03-04 14:03:35	will palestine be said at the oscars	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2542b2…
03-04 14:03:13	will president be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x43c511…
03-04 14:03:05	will epstein be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xfdbd83…
03-04 14:01:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x9a8244…
03-04 14:01:13	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x51a8e9…
02-05 20:37:57	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	Yes	BUY	103	23¢	$23	0xc3b5b0…
02-05 20:37:25	will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xa01c31…
02-02 06:55:06	will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xcd8203…
01-31 17:24:38	will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1e1084…
01-19 00:29:32	will epstein data set 9 be released before march 598	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf767a2…
01-19 00:26:52	Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	No	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x15dc23…
01-04 05:49:21	will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xd3e421…