Optimistic-Meal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

Trades

135

lifetime

Volume

$224

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-25 00:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

37% — —

Other

31% 0% $-1

Politics

19% 100% +$1

Sports

8% — —

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	2	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	02-05 20:37
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	1	$23	103	0	+103	open	—	02-05 20:37
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$16	31	0	+31	open	—	04-11 09:09
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	01-31 17:24
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	4	$6	8	6	+2	open	—	07-13 00:57
btc updown 5m 1782045300	1	$5	26	0	+26	open	—	06-21 12:36
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-28 05:10
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$4	0	180	-180	open	—	07-12 00:25
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	1	$4	0	5	-5	open	—	05-28 05:13
Nothing Ever Happens: March	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-19 18:50
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$3	6	6	+0	open	—	03-09 19:29
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$3	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 00:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$3	9	0	+9	open	—	03-05 18:41
us strike on somalia by march 7 324	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	03-09 19:32
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$3	4	4	+0	open	—	07-07 00:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	07-06 23:52
will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	07-12 16:52
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	07-10 11:19
vance announces he wont run for president in 2028 this year	2	$2	8	8	+0	open	—	07-06 23:49
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$2	6	6	+0	open	—	07-10 11:19
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	03-09 15:55
Major US official out by April 30?	2	$2	21	0	+21	open	—	04-28 17:52
will bitcoin dip to 67000 on march 6	2	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	03-06 19:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-05 18:41
btc updown 5m 1772890200	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-07 13:30
will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	2	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	03-06 16:40
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	1	$1	0	2	-2	open	—	05-28 05:14
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	1	$1	0	2	-2	open	—	01-19 00:26
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?	1	$1	0	1	-1	open	—	06-14 04:47
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026?	1	$1	0	1	-1	open	—	06-15 05:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 00:38:06	boxing anthony joshua vspt kristian prenga 20260724153052168	Joshua	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x297b40…
07-25 00:36:03	will trump dance during whca dinner on july 24 20260724171552591	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4d3066…
07-17 20:13:33	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xe52344…
07-17 11:38:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x33df34…
07-17 11:38:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x14aa0f…
07-16 19:31:59	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x68a1b4…
07-16 19:31:52	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xafd849…
07-13 01:06:46	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9e90e3…
07-13 01:03:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1a5a5e…
07-13 00:57:16	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x835041…
07-12 16:52:13	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x5785ea…
07-12 02:52:17	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0xe4f574…
07-12 00:25:44	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	2¢	$4	0x0fc873…
07-10 19:21:56	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa47f1d…
07-10 11:19:50	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xabd7d6…
07-10 11:19:35	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xc82544…
07-08 15:39:50	atp cobolli fery 2026 07 08	Arthur Fery	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9ee25a…
07-07 01:48:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xee7723…
07-07 00:41:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x0e0161…
07-06 23:58:04	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x298c20…
07-06 23:54:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x5a6b3b…
07-06 23:54:20	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc43679…
07-06 23:54:07	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x42c4b1…
07-06 23:52:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0x35a44f…
07-06 23:49:04	vance announces he wont run for president in 2028 this year	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xe2f8a3…
07-06 10:43:11	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc588aa…
07-06 10:43:02	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x586584…
07-02 23:32:05	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9c72d4…
06-28 05:03:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2fe4e1…
06-27 12:11:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x90dff8…
06-21 12:36:41	btc updown 5m 1782045300	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x269a58…
06-20 08:29:53	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa35f26…
06-20 01:24:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x78c2e6…
06-18 04:43:40	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb8e07a…
06-18 04:33:53	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x1c0c12…
06-18 04:33:44	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x11b603…
06-18 04:33:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x0cb5e9…
06-15 05:08:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xba889a…
06-15 05:07:22	Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x2ada18…
06-14 04:51:22	Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x48ca02…
06-14 04:47:45	Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0c6131…
06-02 04:15:18	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd1e0e0…
05-28 05:15:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x683bc2…
05-28 05:14:55	Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb98f14…
05-28 05:14:08	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x77a83c…
05-28 05:13:12	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$4	0xac6296…
05-28 05:10:24	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7140b2…
05-19 18:50:38	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xd80536…
04-30 01:33:42	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x56203c…
04-29 02:21:00	Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe7c040…
04-29 02:13:50	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x138bc3…
04-28 17:55:58	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2f7e1f…
04-28 17:54:28	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x727ea7…
04-28 17:53:54	Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4868a8…
04-28 17:52:46	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x22d208…
04-28 17:52:08	Major US official out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe058e4…
04-25 16:31:26	Major US official out by April 30?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x54466b…
04-16 02:38:08	Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1cf7d9…
04-16 00:55:08	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0xadd16a…
04-11 09:09:59	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xecf2cb…
04-05 10:37:53	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4a8fbb…
04-05 10:37:49	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbe7e5a…
04-04 18:04:15	btc updown 5m 1775325600	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc3bd20…
04-04 18:03:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xde62de…
04-04 18:03:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x49cabe…
04-01 18:46:59	will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8fcd90…
03-26 22:26:43	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x85a93c…
03-17 11:54:31	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x38e9dc…
03-17 11:54:23	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe7c9b0…
03-17 11:54:15	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xee155e…
03-17 11:54:09	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbf72be…
03-17 11:54:07	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x62e90a…
03-10 17:36:43	btc updown 5m 1773164100	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc0cfd9…
03-09 19:32:47	us strike on somalia by march 7 324	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x3c9a7f…
03-09 19:29:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x965f09…
03-09 19:27:47	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfd078b…
03-09 15:56:27	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x48375b…
03-09 15:56:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb4f29a…
03-09 15:55:59	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8a1645…
03-09 10:43:17	btc updown 5m 1773052800	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3ace0c…
03-08 17:57:47	btc updown 5m 1772992500	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa43ca9…
03-08 03:00:39	will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x574875…
03-08 02:59:43	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0f70c7…
03-08 02:57:53	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa27071…
03-08 02:55:33	will russia capture rodynske by march 31	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc4952a…
03-07 13:30:45	btc updown 5m 1772890200	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xeae452…
03-07 13:30:43	btc updown 5m 1772890200	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa6004d…
03-07 08:51:07	btc updown 5m 1772873400	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf659ac…
03-06 19:16:49	will bitcoin reach 72000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xc48449…
03-06 19:16:33	will bitcoin dip to 67000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xde861d…
03-06 19:16:07	will bitcoin dip to 65000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x9ee284…
03-06 19:14:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x162050…
03-06 19:14:43	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc5f1ce…
03-06 16:40:53	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb5915e…
03-06 16:40:41	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x2cf5d3…
03-06 16:39:49	will bitcoin dip to 67000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe3f175…
03-05 18:43:33	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x120f16…
03-05 18:42:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xdfc200…
03-05 18:41:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8446ed…
03-05 18:41:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x0ee271…