Distinct-Drug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

135

Trades

1,533

lifetime

Volume

$16.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 100% +$7

Politics

29% — —

Other

27% 100% +$1

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+13	$49	40¢	$5	$-43	07-08 07:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	14	$1.4K	1,208	1,208	+0	open	—	07-03 01:52
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	11	$857	600	802	-202	open	—	06-13 06:06
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	8	$836	600	600	+0	open	—	06-08 20:55
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$703	600	587	+13	open	—	07-10 18:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	6	$692	400	400	+0	open	—	07-01 07:14
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	7	$578	602	602	+0	open	—	06-13 03:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$552	400	400	+0	open	—	07-07 01:40
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	5	$496	400	400	+0	open	—	07-01 14:46
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	6	$454	600	600	+0	open	—	07-13 18:10
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	2	$312	200	200	+0	open	—	07-01 15:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	2	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 20:32
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	6	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	05-29 15:28
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	4	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-10 00:03
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	2	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 15:26
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	2	$192	200	200	+0	open	—	07-11 10:50
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	2	$170	100	100	+0	open	—	07-11 20:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$152	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 11:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	3	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 14:36
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	3	$128	84	84	+0	open	—	06-09 00:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$110	200	0	+200	open	—	05-27 18:33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	4	$106	86	86	+0	open	—	06-10 11:11
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	3	$100	400	200	+200	open	—	06-10 10:17
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	2	$98	75	75	+0	open	—	07-01 10:26
iran leadership change by june 30 2027	3	$93	64	64	+0	open	—	07-12 13:44
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	6	$91	64	64	+0	open	—	07-06 01:08
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$76	63	63	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	1	$69	0	100	-100	open	—	06-08 15:01
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	2	$62	50	50	+0	open	—	06-05 13:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:10:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x91970f…
07-12 13:44:14	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0xa3b725…
07-12 13:44:04	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	61	73¢	$44	0x145ceb…
07-11 23:02:52	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	64	73¢	$47	0xc5b1ca…
07-11 20:09:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x3a6c4b…
07-11 13:53:01	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x29dc32…
07-11 10:50:04	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	48¢	$96	0x8abf7f…
07-10 18:27:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0x1980e7…
07-09 10:10:17	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x18f36d…
07-09 09:57:41	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xacacc7…
07-08 15:26:56	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa31f40…
07-08 07:15:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x5d9970…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 14:51:55	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xed6c15…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xf9d0fb…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xa9f42a…
07-06 01:08:34	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xc34f27…
07-06 01:08:16	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0xd3312e…
07-06 01:08:13	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	71¢	$18	0x65e8e5…
07-06 01:08:13	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	71¢	$20	0x3a709c…
07-06 00:52:02	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xc7ae99…
07-06 00:49:40	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	71¢	$45	0x42cb26…
07-05 13:57:17	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x6193cf…
07-05 08:57:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x66f9c2…
07-04 21:57:02	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0x0e43d7…
07-04 21:10:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	200	32¢	$64	0xb725fd…
07-03 01:52:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x972763…
07-02 14:24:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xf3e728…
07-01 15:41:14	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x61c098…
07-01 15:33:02	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x6bdd85…
07-01 14:46:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xdb4b15…
07-01 14:00:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x656e89…
07-01 10:26:26	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	75	65¢	$49	0x3a6d5f…
07-01 07:14:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x2d63bd…
07-01 07:14:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	190	85¢	$162	0xaa9911…
07-01 07:14:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x2eeaf3…
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9a6525…
07-01 06:20:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	75	65¢	$49	0xf1f651…
06-28 21:45:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	59¢	$118	0x18a740…
06-28 20:46:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xa59393…
06-26 11:05:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0x2da5b4…
06-26 11:05:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	185	41¢	$76	0xe0ea3c…
06-26 11:01:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xe495c3…
06-26 06:11:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x9b1a5f…
06-26 06:08:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe90fa4…
06-26 05:50:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0xcbe8f1…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-25 12:30:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xfb387c…
06-25 11:50:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	59¢	$118	0xdaa65b…
06-25 11:44:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0xf65b80…
06-25 11:44:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x3a0ff2…
06-25 11:09:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x1305df…
06-25 11:08:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x6fd482…
06-22 14:33:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	208	51¢	$106	0x97ca04…
06-22 13:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	208	51¢	$106	0x56c0cd…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-15 08:19:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	32	64¢	$20	0x3d0670…
06-15 06:22:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0xd8f8fa…
06-15 06:21:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	93	64¢	$59	0xdb1426…
06-15 06:17:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	54	64¢	$34	0x4f571d…
06-15 06:16:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x1ceb4a…
06-13 06:06:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	202	42¢	$85	0x0b95f7…
06-13 03:16:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0x9701da…
06-13 03:16:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x206461…
06-12 06:46:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	43¢	$86	0x048d04…
06-12 06:17:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0x68ff03…
06-11 17:05:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	18	78¢	$14	0x4213d7…
06-11 17:05:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	12	78¢	$9	0x0029b2…
06-11 17:05:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	140	78¢	$109	0xd04ca4…
06-11 17:05:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0x3b5e5e…
06-11 17:05:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xf3db15…
06-11 08:21:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	52	41¢	$21	0xa9bd4e…
06-11 08:10:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x19f1b5…
06-10 11:11:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	62¢	$27	0x200272…
06-10 11:04:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0x915be1…
06-10 10:17:49	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x5bc569…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x99246a…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	62¢	$27	0x51eb7a…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x42a2d4…
06-10 00:03:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	197	60¢	$118	0xdabd4d…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	63	60¢	$38	0x516827…
06-09 00:29:07	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	48	76¢	$36	0xcfd5b0…
06-09 00:28:55	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	36	76¢	$27	0xc1aa7b…
06-08 20:55:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	147	82¢	$121	0x51b58f…
06-08 20:52:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	53	82¢	$43	0xc367c4…
06-08 20:52:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x55fc6a…
06-08 15:01:45	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0xe50faf…
06-08 07:16:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	3	59¢	$1	0x6e6198…
06-08 07:16:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xc79fde…
06-08 07:16:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	197	60¢	$118	0x7920d3…
06-07 22:14:21	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	84	76¢	$64	0x3fbbe3…
06-07 20:35:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0x2649b4…
06-07 20:34:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xc84750…
06-07 19:45:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	83	55¢	$46	0x5bd1b7…
06-07 19:45:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	117	55¢	$64	0x7dcce1…
06-07 19:45:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x448c6f…
06-06 22:04:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	78	28¢	$22	0x5edf06…
06-06 18:34:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	122	28¢	$34	0x60311e…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x575989…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	184	6¢	$11	0x27bf76…