(anonymous) 0x21adb4…c310d2
hot 7W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$1.80K
Unrealized P&L
+$979
Hit rate
88.6%
Resolved
49
Trades
128
lifetime
Volume
$9.84K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$77
Open exposure
$5.67K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-07
last 10-26 10:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 24 days
Categories
Other
48% 85% +$428
Politics
42% 73% +$1,379
Crypto
6% 57% -$4
Tech
4% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? Yes +1,455 $300 84¢ $1.2K +$930 10-19 06:55
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +384 $300 84¢ $321 +$21 10-21 23:39
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +332 $295 94¢ $313 +$18 10-19 11:02
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No +341 $300 86¢ $291 -$9 10-21 05:56
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +937 $300 30¢ $286 -$14 10-26 10:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +250 $200 94¢ $234 +$34 10-16 06:22
will wti dip to 80 in october 2026 No +222 $200 99¢ $219 +$19 10-15 08:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +230 $200 88¢ $203 +$3 10-14 04:43
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No +1,418 $294 11¢ $160 -$134 10-22 03:17
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +226 $200 68¢ $154 -$45 10-07 16:30
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes +149 $100 97¢ $145 +$45 09-23 11:38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +154 $94 94¢ $145 +$51 09-15 20:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +145 $100 96¢ $139 +$39 09-19 14:19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +397 $131 32¢ $129 -$2 10-07 13:28
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +799 $200 16¢ $124 -$76 10-12 16:02
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +214 $100 54¢ $117 +$17 09-23 12:27
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +124 $95 94¢ $116 +$20 09-17 15:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +120 $100 94¢ $113 +$13 09-21 08:30
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No +111 $100 96¢ $107 +$7 09-22 09:46
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +182 $100 58¢ $106 +$6 09-24 18:28
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +133 $100 80¢ $106 +$6 09-24 17:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +141 $100 74¢ $105 +$5 09-22 07:56
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No +108 $100 97¢ $105 +$5 10-01 08:19
US recession by end of 2026? No +112 $88 92¢ $104 +$16 09-15 22:53
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +109 $94 94¢ $102 +$8 09-15 17:19
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic +109 $100 92¢ $100 +$1 10-05 05:52
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +105 $98 96¢ $100 +$3 09-18 21:40
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +116 $100 86¢ $100 +$0 09-18 22:16
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +107 $100 92¢ $98 -$2 09-25 20:15
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +111 $100 84¢ $94 -$6 10-02 09:17