Sticky-Speculation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$743

Unrealized P&L

-$36

Hit rate

27.2%

Resolved

101

Trades

1,100

lifetime

Volume

$84.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$1.21K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-06 11:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

38% 20% -$2,121

Politics

29% 41% +$65

Sports

28% 39% +$1,253

Crypto

4% 75% +$55

Tech

1% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	-739	-$371	78¢	$-580	-$210	09-06 11:37
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-331	-$295	100¢	$-331	-$36	09-06 11:37
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-268	-$239	98¢	$-262	-$23	09-06 11:39
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	-745	-$252	2¢	$-18	+$233	05-14 05:40
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-15	-$14	99¢	$-15	$0	09-06 11:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	19	$5.8K	14,623	14,623	+0	No	-$57	01-27 09:29
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	62	$5.0K	3,979	6,267	-2,288	Yes	+$321	03-04 11:16
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	49	$3.6K	3,891	5,087	-1,196	No	-$13	01-10 21:32
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	45	$3.0K	4,571	4,891	-320	No	-$109	01-12 18:57
Will the US strike Nigeria next?	98	$2.6K	2,439	2,676	-237	No	-$27	01-12 12:03
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$2.6K	3,421	3,421	+0	No	-$72	03-05 10:00
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	23	$2.4K	3,870	1,689	+2,181	No	-$68	03-05 16:24
Will the US strike Somalia next?	53	$2.3K	2,372	2,576	-204	Yes	-$183	01-26 22:06
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	40	$2.2K	1,631	1,680	-49	No	-$13	01-10 22:14
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$2.1K	1,437	1,721	-284	No	-$51	03-05 10:43
will the denver broncos win super bowl 2026	21	$2.1K	10,748	8,367	+2,381	No	-$228	01-25 15:13
will amzn reach 216 in march	18	$1.9K	2,740	2,185	+555	Yes	-$106	03-04 14:51
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	19	$1.8K	1,887	1,887	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 10:04
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	4	$1.8K	5,556	5,556	-0	No	-$27	01-10 16:05
Will the US strike Colombia next?	13	$1.5K	1,339	762	+577	No	-$6	01-11 16:33
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	5	$1.3K	1,576	2,021	-445	No	-$64	01-09 21:06
Will the US strike Yemen next?	24	$1.3K	1,031	652	+379	No	+$9	01-12 11:59
pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	10	$1.3K	1,144	2,611	-1,467	No	+$6	03-04 08:05
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	36	$1.3K	2,304	1,892	+412	No	-$113	01-11 07:52
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$1.3K	3,865	3,865	-0	No	-$39	02-05 07:37
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.3K	6,055	6,055	-0	Yes	-$61	01-07 17:07
will the buffalo bills win super bowl 2026	2	$1.3K	6,690	6,690	+0	No	-$67	01-08 11:30
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	21	$1.3K	2,088	2,074	+14	Yes	-$36	03-04 12:54
nfl gb min 2026 01 04	1	$1.2K	1,422	0	+1,422	Vikings	+$242	01-04 15:45
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$1.1K	1,764	551	+1,213	Yes	-$279	01-29 18:55
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$1.1K	766	766	+0	No	-$13	01-04 16:32
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	7	$1.1K	437	886	-449	No	-$77	01-11 10:24
Will the US strike Syria next?	10	$1.0K	441	662	-221	No	-$8	01-26 12:40
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	11	$1.0K	1,103	1,421	-318	No	+$86	01-22 20:04
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	35	$971	1,012	1,012	+0	Yes	+$6	02-16 21:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-06 11:39:45	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x115e88…
09-06 11:39:33	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	268	89¢	$239	0xd434ac…
09-06 11:37:28	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	331	89¢	$295	0xed7e88…
09-06 11:37:19	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	369	68¢	$251	0xd78ff6…
08-26 12:53:30	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	369	32¢	$119	0xa1a708…
05-14 05:40:01	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	745	34¢	$252	0x09501f…
05-14 05:39:36	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	342	18¢	$61	0xf8f024…
05-14 05:38:58	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	443	8¢	$35	0x06b9b6…
03-05 16:41:09	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	SELL	1,649	5¢	$76	0x135f47…
03-05 16:24:57	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	555	36¢	$200	0x5ad2a4…
03-05 16:16:51	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	447	37¢	$165	0xd35b3b…
03-05 16:13:27	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	215	38¢	$82	0x9d29b2…
03-05 15:41:59	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	347	58¢	$201	0x5e1eac…
03-05 15:35:27	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	190	7¢	$13	0x5a83fa…
03-05 15:33:35	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xf81eeb…
03-05 15:32:31	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	199	58¢	$116	0xf5b6f1…
03-05 15:30:59	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xd764c8…
03-05 15:30:45	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0xa91612…
03-05 15:28:01	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x757de7…
03-05 15:26:57	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	291	7¢	$20	0x71be96…
03-05 15:09:23	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x10fcef…
03-05 15:03:37	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xd01e54…
03-05 15:03:25	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xae7c73…
03-05 15:03:11	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xb7f028…
03-05 15:02:55	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xa7e11d…
03-05 15:00:35	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xcd64db…
03-05 14:57:23	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xbcf571…
03-05 14:50:39	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x5ccbaf…
03-05 14:46:27	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xe0dbcf…
03-05 14:44:09	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xbf63bd…
03-05 14:43:09	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	106	8¢	$9	0x62148a…
03-05 14:40:39	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	328	59¢	$194	0x3b2b50…
03-05 14:38:37	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x169fe2…
03-05 14:36:31	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xa3ca80…
03-05 14:29:31	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xe2a2be…
03-05 14:29:15	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	64	59¢	$38	0xbee633…
03-05 14:28:51	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	177	60¢	$106	0x48ae28…
03-05 14:28:43	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x166b80…
03-05 14:28:01	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	191	8¢	$15	0x624358…
03-05 14:24:49	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x5a6b09…
03-05 14:22:31	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xd0a881…
03-05 14:21:33	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	SELL	755	8¢	$61	0xf64ee8…
03-05 14:21:23	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	140	59¢	$83	0x9b71be…
03-05 13:50:07	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	269	9¢	$24	0xfeab7a…
03-05 13:49:25	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	153	9¢	$14	0x5f4375…
03-05 12:50:31	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0xe5df69…
03-05 12:48:21	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0x50c585…
03-05 12:45:23	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0xa79bb3…
03-05 12:40:19	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x975e30…
03-05 12:38:47	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	112	60¢	$67	0xa3017a…
03-05 12:32:25	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xe93599…
03-05 12:08:53	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	SELL	309	86¢	$266	0x7d1b21…
03-05 12:08:43	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	SELL	1,549	38¢	$591	0x957d55…
03-05 11:29:21	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0xcbe190…
03-05 11:21:51	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x45e70b…
03-05 11:17:41	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xd4e5dd…
03-05 11:05:51	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	229	39¢	$89	0x254d54…
03-05 11:05:49	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xd84533…
03-05 11:04:17	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	569	40¢	$227	0x535c83…
03-05 11:03:37	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	18	9¢	$2	0x9059b8…
03-05 11:03:05	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	59	40¢	$24	0xefb449…
03-05 11:02:47	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa10d44…
03-05 11:01:53	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	277	41¢	$114	0x9ddb42…
03-05 10:59:39	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x890dd0…
03-05 10:45:25	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	197	41¢	$81	0xdc6e2c…
03-05 10:43:25	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	SELL	499	9¢	$45	0xa742cf…
03-05 10:43:15	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	202	14¢	$29	0x25ff6e…
03-05 10:43:01	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	222	86¢	$190	0x44aa8a…
03-05 10:25:41	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xf3fec4…
03-05 10:24:35	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	416	10¢	$42	0x5dc011…
03-05 10:22:01	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0x08e2c4…
03-05 10:19:43	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	162	14¢	$23	0x146cf9…
03-05 10:17:55	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	No	BUY	55	11¢	$6	0x45f7bc…
03-05 10:15:49	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	222	85¢	$189	0x2d949d…
03-05 10:00:55	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	2,486	35¢	$870	0x419dbb…
03-04 16:56:35	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	2,486	36¢	$895	0x529bb8…
03-04 14:51:09	will amzn reach 216 in march	No	BUY	488	17¢	$83	0x3ded29…
03-04 14:49:09	will amzn reach 216 in march	No	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x04d4b5…
03-04 14:37:55	will amzn reach 216 in march	No	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xb3503e…
03-04 14:30:33	will amzn reach 216 in march	No	SELL	1,344	16¢	$218	0x88286c…
03-04 14:21:41	will amzn reach 216 in march	No	BUY	1,344	17¢	$228	0x12ba20…
03-04 14:15:57	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	334	84¢	$280	0xbd87e6…
03-04 14:15:45	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	334	84¢	$281	0xd17c20…
03-04 12:56:49	will amzn reach 216 in march	Yes	SELL	153	82¢	$125	0x5f1e86…
03-04 12:54:21	will amzn reach 216 in march	Yes	BUY	153	82¢	$125	0xcce420…
03-04 12:54:15	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	1,114	16¢	$178	0xfdd1d5…
03-04 12:51:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	559	17¢	$95	0xcb5701…
03-04 12:51:35	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	189	18¢	$34	0x55f423…
03-04 12:51:29	will amzn reach 216 in march	Yes	SELL	357	82¢	$291	0xa89f91…
03-04 12:50:35	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	366	18¢	$66	0x4fa96c…
03-04 12:47:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x6e88f3…
03-04 12:46:45	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$4	0x99b39d…
03-04 12:37:03	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	SELL	555	18¢	$100	0x684e5d…
03-04 12:35:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	182	18¢	$33	0x1f910c…
03-04 12:35:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xeaf0d2…
03-04 12:32:11	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	363	18¢	$65	0x9e352a…
03-04 12:27:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	405	80¢	$325	0xe1f93d…
03-04 12:23:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	205	85¢	$174	0x9fabb3…
03-04 12:20:33	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	52	86¢	$45	0x2de50c…
03-04 12:18:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x9a6ffa…