Spirited-Semester — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.9%

Resolved

Trades

768

lifetime

Volume

$742

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-11 23:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Tech

34% — —

Other

29% 50% +$3

Crypto

19% 20% $-5

Politics

15% — —

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will spacex have 11 or more launches in february	6	$134	132	20	+112	open	—	02-13 10:18
will spacex have 12 or more launches in january	3	$79	50	50	+0	open	—	01-21 14:47
will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	8	$43	44	44	+0	open	—	08-10 16:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	3	$27	40	40	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 08:24
bitcoin up or down on january 15	6	$20	18	18	+0	open	—	01-15 00:37
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	4	$18	5	18	-13	open	—	05-24 21:40
will khamenei leave iran by friday	4	$18	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	01-09 18:41
will spacex have 12 or more launches in march	2	$13	5	10	-5	open	—	03-22 19:10
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	3	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	08-01 12:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-08 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-08 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-08 11:49
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	11	$10	200	200	+0	open	—	06-22 08:19
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 17 23	17	$10	75	93	-18	open	—	03-22 05:05
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	5	$9	25	30	-5	open	—	02-16 08:50
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?	3	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	05-02 12:01
will the us next strike iran on january 30 2026 et 866	14	$8	300	250	+50	open	—	01-30 22:22
will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026	6	$8	56	86	-30	open	—	03-06 17:38
will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	14	$7	216	0	+216	open	—	06-18 03:31
nothing ever happens microstrategy	3	$7	15	15	+0	open	—	03-04 13:41
will partido popular win 28 30 seats in the 2026 aragon regional election	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	02-08 21:50
will spacex have exactly 10 launches in january	5	$6	40	50	-10	open	—	01-20 16:56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	11	$6	109	140	-30	open	—	05-22 23:50
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-30 21:28
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$6	43	43	+0	open	—	06-17 02:26
another frontier math problem solved by september 30 2026 20260728180257858	4	$6	200	0	+200	open	—	08-07 13:53
highest temperature in seoul on january 20 neg 4corhigher	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	01-19 12:27
xrp updown 5m 1772718000	1	$5	0	6	-6	open	—	03-05 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	2	$5	20	20	+0	Up	$-5	05-08 08:19
will trump deport 500000 750000 people	1	$5	0	100	-100	open	—	01-14 15:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 23:49:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd1ecf9…
08-11 23:27:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x23a11b…
08-11 23:17:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe42072…
08-11 23:13:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0xad7127…
08-11 23:12:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x98d3fe…
08-10 16:01:15	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	SELL	44	80¢	$35	0xded49f…
08-10 03:08:45	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xde1809…
08-09 17:02:39	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x911391…
08-09 16:26:07	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xa8d54c…
08-09 16:26:07	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x0d903b…
08-07 13:54:24	another frontier math problem solved by december 31 2026 20260728180257859	No	BUY	510	0¢	$1	0x8abb5a…
08-07 13:53:51	another frontier math problem solved by september 30 2026 20260728180257858	No	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x4d0ab8…
08-06 18:37:47	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xdd2046…
08-05 10:24:24	will bryan johnson have sex again by august 31	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xff9375…
08-04 08:52:30	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x60b9fe…
08-04 07:08:27	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xbc9ddd…
08-01 15:10:41	another frontier math problem solved by september 30 2026 20260728180257858	No	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x7de4d3…
08-01 15:04:50	will amd say oracle during earnings call 20260730164425712	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xd21944…
08-01 12:02:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb771ac…
07-31 13:32:32	will nvda dip to 176 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0xfec64e…
07-30 23:52:51	will nvda dip to 176 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	57	0¢	$0	0x7c5ab8…
07-30 14:50:21	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa2d5f5…
07-30 12:11:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x561062…
07-30 01:15:23	will nvda dip to 176 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x7e5268…
07-30 00:08:44	will nvda dip to 176 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x0a15ff…
07-29 22:56:09	will nvda dip to 176 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xb9271d…
07-26 15:08:27	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	110	0¢	$0	0x84f0c9…
07-26 14:27:18	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x40e2bd…
07-26 13:55:09	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	47	1¢	$0	0xc1271a…
07-26 13:52:42	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x7da529…
07-26 12:06:22	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x67fe0c…
07-26 10:30:22	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x7b3796…
07-26 09:17:55	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xb239e1…
07-26 08:36:36	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xd4e575…
07-25 10:53:19	ripcars fdv above 500k one day after launch 20260721182210402	No	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x022258…
07-24 20:40:12	ripcars fdv above 500k one day after launch 20260721182210402	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x8dd5a6…
07-24 20:40:03	ripcars fdv above 500k one day after launch 20260721182210402	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x44360b…
07-24 20:40:00	ripcars fdv above 500k one day after launch 20260721182210402	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3d9968…
07-24 19:54:21	xrp updown 4h 1784908800	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x24e336…
07-24 19:26:42	xrp updown 4h 1784908800	Up	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x977246…
07-24 18:28:04	xrp updown 4h 1784908800	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xc73466…
07-24 16:03:27	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x90eab6…
07-24 15:56:22	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0xc44683…
07-24 15:56:21	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xc60bc5…
07-24 15:56:21	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	BUY	3	17¢	$1	0x528d6a…
07-24 15:56:21	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x250c69…
07-24 15:55:00	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xebf96f…
07-24 13:29:33	atp bublik etcheve 2026 07 24	Tomas Etcheverry	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x8994ae…
07-24 10:27:25	wta tararud snigur 2026 07 24	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfcffbd…
07-21 02:55:04	Elon Bull Run Parlay	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xe9aa03…
07-16 17:29:04	will leavitt say president 20 times during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953927	No	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0xbf43c0…
07-14 18:32:41	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x51fc90…
07-14 16:45:32	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0x8c6863…
07-14 16:44:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x68657c…
07-14 15:48:20	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x72357c…
07-14 15:10:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x2d9178…
07-13 17:01:58	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	No	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xad381a…
07-13 17:01:46	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe3d186…
07-08 16:14:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	26	2¢	$0	0x3d12f4…
07-08 16:00:44	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xd90da9…
07-06 20:19:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0x7fef49…
07-06 20:11:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x78a815…
07-05 00:59:25	laso finance fdv above 30m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x615f0c…
07-05 00:51:40	laso finance fdv above 20m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xc8ed8c…
07-03 00:38:41	will leavitt say president 20 times during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953927	No	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x4de4c2…
07-02 10:26:56	Elon Bull Run Parlay	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x093cbc…
06-30 07:47:47	laso finance fdv above 20m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x5f2c22…
06-27 16:05:14	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	BUY	110	0¢	$0	0xfbd0f7…
06-22 08:19:32	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x0bce89…
06-22 01:05:34	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0x27bb93…
06-22 00:20:53	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$2	0x1ffc2d…
06-21 23:28:40	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xe596bd…
06-21 23:09:32	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x455e66…
06-21 22:56:28	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xb601de…
06-21 21:35:43	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x19b562…
06-18 23:29:47	Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x115bc1…
06-18 03:31:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xf7f1a4…
06-17 15:00:38	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xab6ef3…
06-17 14:45:37	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xe8568d…
06-17 02:26:18	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xb31872…
06-17 01:48:13	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0x4f21a6…
06-15 15:38:15	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x88791c…
06-15 13:52:27	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xe1d1de…
06-14 20:12:19	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x17e8f8…
06-14 20:12:04	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x1dc72f…
06-14 15:46:37	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	410	0¢	$0	0xf699df…
06-14 12:42:39	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	244	0¢	$1	0x834323…
06-14 12:30:51	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xcd133d…
06-14 12:26:39	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x309339…
06-14 12:00:22	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x560b73…
06-14 11:50:42	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb94080…
06-13 21:20:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xba8160…
06-13 20:56:27	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x7611d0…
06-13 20:12:39	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8d57f2…
06-13 12:31:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x950a11…
06-13 10:38:31	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xf4ccb1…
06-13 09:38:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x915a93…
06-12 19:29:57	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6d0422…
06-11 17:15:03	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 28 2026	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xaef6c5…
06-11 00:42:43	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x462ce4…