Spirited-Semester — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

43.9%

Resolved

Trades

707

lifetime

Volume

$667

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-21 02:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Tech

38% — —

Other

22% 50% +$3

Crypto

20% 20% $-5

Politics

16% — —

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Elon Bull Run Parlay	Yes	+139	$2	3¢	$4	+$2	07-21 02:55
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	-80	$-2	1¢	$-1	+$1	06-22 08:19
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	-10	$2	4¢	$-0	$-2	06-17 02:26
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	-15	$-0	2¢	$-0	+$0	06-18 23:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will spacex have 11 or more launches in february	6	$134	132	20	+112	open	—	02-13 10:18
will spacex have 12 or more launches in january	3	$79	50	50	+0	open	—	01-21 14:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	3	$27	40	40	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 08:24
bitcoin up or down on january 15	6	$20	18	18	+0	open	—	01-15 00:37
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	4	$18	5	18	-13	open	—	05-24 21:40
will khamenei leave iran by friday	4	$18	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	01-09 18:41
will spacex have 12 or more launches in march	2	$13	5	10	-5	open	—	03-22 19:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-08 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-08 11:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-08 10:54
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	11	$10	200	200	+0	open	—	06-22 08:19
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 17 23	17	$10	75	93	-18	open	—	03-22 05:05
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	5	$9	25	30	-5	open	—	02-16 08:50
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?	3	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	05-02 12:01
will the us next strike iran on january 30 2026 et 866	14	$8	300	250	+50	open	—	01-30 22:22
will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026	6	$8	56	86	-30	open	—	03-06 17:38
will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	14	$7	216	0	+216	open	—	06-18 03:31
nothing ever happens microstrategy	3	$7	15	15	+0	open	—	03-04 13:41
will partido popular win 28 30 seats in the 2026 aragon regional election	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	02-08 21:50
will spacex have exactly 10 launches in january	5	$6	40	50	-10	open	—	01-20 16:56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	11	$6	109	140	-30	open	—	05-22 23:50
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-30 21:28
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$6	43	43	+0	open	—	06-17 02:26
highest temperature in seoul on january 20 neg 4corhigher	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	01-19 12:27
xrp updown 5m 1772718000	1	$5	0	6	-6	open	—	03-05 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	2	$5	20	20	+0	Up	$-5	05-08 08:19
will trump deport 500000 750000 people	1	$5	0	100	-100	open	—	01-14 15:53
will leavitt say israel during the next press briefing	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	02-10 20:04
highest temperature in seoul on january 20 neg 5c	2	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	01-19 13:41
Elon Bull Run Parlay	8	$5	290	0	+290	open	—	07-21 02:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 02:55:04	Elon Bull Run Parlay	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xe9aa03…
07-16 17:29:04	will leavitt say president 20 times during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953927	No	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0xbf43c0…
07-14 18:32:41	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x51fc90…
07-14 16:45:32	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0x8c6863…
07-14 16:44:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x68657c…
07-14 15:48:20	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x72357c…
07-14 15:10:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x2d9178…
07-13 17:01:58	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	No	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xad381a…
07-13 17:01:46	over 8m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325644	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe3d186…
07-08 16:14:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	26	2¢	$0	0x3d12f4…
07-08 16:00:44	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xd90da9…
07-06 20:19:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0x7fef49…
07-06 20:11:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x78a815…
07-05 00:59:25	laso finance fdv above 30m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x615f0c…
07-05 00:51:40	laso finance fdv above 20m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xc8ed8c…
07-03 00:38:41	will leavitt say president 20 times during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953927	No	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x4de4c2…
07-02 10:26:56	Elon Bull Run Parlay	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x093cbc…
06-30 07:47:47	laso finance fdv above 20m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x5f2c22…
06-27 16:05:14	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Yes	BUY	110	0¢	$0	0xfbd0f7…
06-22 08:19:32	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x0bce89…
06-22 01:05:34	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0x27bb93…
06-22 00:20:53	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$2	0x1ffc2d…
06-21 23:28:40	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xe596bd…
06-21 23:09:32	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x455e66…
06-21 22:56:28	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xb601de…
06-21 21:35:43	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x19b562…
06-18 23:29:47	Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x115bc1…
06-18 03:31:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xf7f1a4…
06-17 15:00:38	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xab6ef3…
06-17 14:45:37	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xe8568d…
06-17 02:26:18	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xb31872…
06-17 01:48:13	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0x4f21a6…
06-15 15:38:15	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x88791c…
06-15 13:52:27	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xe1d1de…
06-14 20:12:19	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x17e8f8…
06-14 20:12:04	Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x1dc72f…
06-14 15:46:37	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	410	0¢	$0	0xf699df…
06-14 12:42:39	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	244	0¢	$1	0x834323…
06-14 12:30:51	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xcd133d…
06-14 12:26:39	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x309339…
06-14 12:00:22	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x560b73…
06-14 11:50:42	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb94080…
06-13 21:20:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xba8160…
06-13 20:56:27	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x7611d0…
06-13 20:12:39	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8d57f2…
06-13 12:31:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x950a11…
06-13 10:38:31	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0xf4ccb1…
06-13 09:38:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x915a93…
06-12 19:29:57	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6d0422…
06-11 17:15:03	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 28 2026	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xaef6c5…
06-11 00:42:43	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x462ce4…
06-10 23:41:46	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x1e3300…
06-10 23:24:57	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xa820dd…
06-10 23:01:52	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xefb38d…
06-08 17:31:51	aapl close above 310 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd431be…
06-06 23:09:48	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x27eda6…
06-06 21:09:46	will lambdas valuation hit high 10b by june 30	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x33752b…
06-06 18:45:51	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xbaf06e…
06-06 18:19:39	will lambdas valuation hit high 10b by june 30	Yes	SELL	22	12¢	$3	0xc4800f…
06-06 17:52:07	will m80 qualify to the iem cologne 2026 playoffs	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1c5584…
06-06 09:23:39	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xb108c3…
06-06 09:17:57	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xb239a1…
06-06 06:14:40	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x04fada…
06-05 19:21:18	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x433168…
06-05 12:53:10	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	418	0¢	$1	0x3c9020…
06-05 12:52:57	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xd32e34…
06-05 12:52:42	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xf03233…
06-05 12:52:25	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x4ae1ea…
06-05 12:52:22	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x997050…
06-05 03:39:16	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026?	No	SELL	115	0¢	$0	0x4f3ee8…
06-04 01:12:16	Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x7e5269…
06-03 19:35:13	Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x091ace…
06-03 16:10:49	Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x308204…
06-03 13:16:25	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xcf75ea…
06-03 09:58:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xedde4b…
06-03 09:33:19	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x93b6e5…
06-03 08:17:59	Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xbd80d4…
06-03 03:17:34	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb1f4da…
06-01 16:12:19	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026?	No	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x3ec762…
06-01 08:59:37	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xfd9efd…
06-01 04:43:13	Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xd94712…
05-31 22:02:58	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x730e17…
05-31 22:02:56	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xfa9f07…
05-30 12:29:23	Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x397d79…
05-28 22:41:55	Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xe24333…
05-28 15:28:07	Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30?	No	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0xb49248…
05-27 22:34:03	Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30?	No	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x1742b3…
05-27 18:04:40	Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xb36e68…
05-26 12:49:40	Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x15bdf3…
05-26 10:33:57	Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x9d08c0…
05-26 00:51:59	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27?	No	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0xf0ca70…
05-26 00:51:59	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27?	No	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x4233d2…
05-26 00:18:20	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x70cb67…
05-25 22:47:08	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xb86b93…
05-25 22:32:47	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0xcc59b0…
05-25 20:41:53	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xfc6e26…
05-25 20:23:53	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x86be3c…
05-25 17:11:13	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xae6414…
05-25 16:41:45	Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xddf53f…
05-25 14:05:43	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27?	No	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xe4cc9d…