Aggravating-Outback — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$76

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

75.2%

Resolved

161

Trades

430

lifetime

Volume

$5.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$24

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 11-01 20:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

64% 58% -$4

Sports

29% 35% +$57

Politics

7% 38% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes		+70	$10	18¢	$12	+$2	10-20 03:32
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes		+179	$14	6¢	$12	-$3	10-31 15:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	52	$1.9K	5,020	5,020	+0	No	+$11	07-09 22:06
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	30	$475	1,958	1,958	+0	No	+$26	07-13 21:38
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$355	754	682	+72	Yes	+$175	07-19 09:10
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	14	$259	418	418	+0	Yes	+$17	10-25 22:07
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$212	400	400	+0	No	+$116	07-19 09:10
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	20	$195	384	417	-33	Yes	-$1	10-26 22:24
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$176	721	311	+410	No	-$76	06-27 06:58
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	16	$164	278	278	+0	Yes	-$8	05-19 09:41
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$134	823	413	+411	No	-$44	06-27 06:58
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	8	$116	358	388	-30	No	+$2	05-11 01:44
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$114	703	367	+336	No	-$35	06-27 06:58
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	17	$109	173	173	+0	No	+$3	05-05 20:16
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	16	$82	2,501	2,501	+0	No	-$18	07-05 21:56
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	11	$77	170	170	+0	Yes	+$5	04-28 19:25
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	11	$70	210	210	+0	No	+$4	07-05 15:14
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	4	$62	45	27	+18	Yes	+$3	04-20 02:56
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$50	50	50	+0	No	-$3	10-25 22:33
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$45	82	82	+0	No	+$1	04-29 11:40
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team total away 1pt5	2	$39	27	27	+0	Under	-$1	07-10 20:21
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	3	$36	357	179	+179	open	—	10-31 15:39
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$32	410	0	+410	No	-$32	06-27 07:01
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$20	29	0	+29	Argentina	+$9	07-12 03:23
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	2	$20	23	23	+0	No	$0	10-25 22:49
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	1	$20	30	0	+30	Yes	+$10	10-04 16:53
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$17	330	0	+330	No	-$17	06-27 07:01
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$16	331	0	+331	No	-$16	06-27 07:02
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	2	$15	32	0	+32	No	-$15	07-11 20:57
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	2	$14	17	9	+9	No	-$6	05-06 18:58
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	2	$14	30	15	+15	No	-$5	04-28 18:27
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score	2	$14	9	9	+0	Yes	+$4	05-24 20:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 20:43:36	Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)	SE Palmeiras	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb73333…
10-31 15:40:03	Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x84320f…
10-31 15:39:03	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	179	6¢	$11	0xf2309b…
10-31 02:29:52	Coritiba FBC vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x9c38c4…
10-29 23:22:48	CR Flamengo leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x57b296…
10-29 23:21:37	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0xda579a…
10-29 21:08:07	Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xa1308c…
10-28 10:20:44	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x88c4aa…
10-27 00:29:36	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x0d4b16…
10-26 22:24:51	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x520f8f…
10-26 22:14:33	Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x10d3a2…
10-25 22:49:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	23	43¢	$10	0xdf01a2…
10-25 22:33:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0x45dfa7…
10-25 22:17:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xc4afa8…
10-25 22:07:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	86	45¢	$39	0xcb68eb…
10-25 22:01:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	86	36¢	$31	0x706d87…
10-25 21:48:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	86	36¢	$31	0x5086e8…
10-25 21:09:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	79	29¢	$23	0xc77d5b…
10-25 21:09:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x4daaea…
10-25 20:59:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	86	34¢	$29	0x278ad7…
10-25 01:59:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x3af509…
10-25 01:31:02	Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x162d23…
10-25 01:30:35	Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3a76b7…
10-25 01:29:41	CR Vasco da Gama vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6fb15f…
10-24 21:42:05	Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x602222…
10-24 21:41:59	CR Vasco da Gama vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xe33263…
10-24 20:54:48	EC Vitória vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xdee99d…
10-24 20:54:35	EC Vitória vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xaef813…
10-24 20:12:47	Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xa1b40d…
10-24 15:53:30	EC Vitória vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xeaf37a…
10-24 03:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x1543dd…
10-22 03:36:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x12faed…
10-21 05:29:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xb647e3…
10-20 19:32:17	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x6e996a…
10-20 03:32:57	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xcab074…
10-19 21:41:09	SC Corinthians Paulista vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xc38af7…
10-18 22:07:12	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xff96ca…
10-14 08:35:35	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x6f12ce…
10-08 22:09:57	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x832cc8…
10-08 22:09:30	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x11ec1e…
10-08 20:36:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xd80f1b…
10-05 04:45:46	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	55	17¢	$9	0x5caefc…
10-04 16:53:28	Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xa3aac1…
10-04 16:46:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0xf0249d…
10-03 23:39:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	83	36¢	$30	0xb1c555…
10-03 23:34:04	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x1599e8…
07-19 09:10:27	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	400	41¢	$164	0x5b6774…
07-19 09:10:06	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	270	59¢	$159	0xf69a31…
07-13 21:38:56	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	369	13¢	$49	0xc9aa8d…
07-12 03:23:47	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0xf5be89…
07-12 03:22:53	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	369	13¢	$48	0xc5cc87…
07-12 01:58:44	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	396	13¢	$53	0xbb823c…
07-12 00:52:23	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	341	13¢	$45	0x12560a…
07-12 00:03:41	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc346e8…
07-11 20:57:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x26ec08…
07-11 20:49:38	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0f7de1…
07-10 20:21:46	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team total away 1pt5	Under	SELL	27	70¢	$19	0x541282…
07-10 18:55:41	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team total away 1pt5	Under	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xf4010c…
07-09 22:06:14	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	191	16¢	$30	0xf14089…
07-09 16:25:25	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	191	13¢	$24	0x8c912f…
07-08 11:47:41	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x305061…
07-08 11:47:37	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	514	14¢	$72	0x62ed0a…
07-08 09:44:20	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x7b90ab…
07-07 17:56:59	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	73	10¢	$7	0x92ceb7…
07-07 17:54:28	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$17	0x6c40dd…
07-07 17:49:58	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	114	8¢	$9	0x76e20b…
07-07 16:17:11	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	340	12¢	$41	0xe27355…
07-05 21:56:17	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	925	0¢	$1	0x58c822…
07-05 17:00:38	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	818	2¢	$18	0x20ff3b…
07-05 16:10:29	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x2e4ca9…
07-05 16:03:53	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xff9d8a…
07-05 15:23:29	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0xefe9ed…
07-05 15:23:22	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x285a6f…
07-05 15:23:02	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xc7a7dc…
07-05 15:22:25	Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xac2c1e…
07-05 15:14:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x32c369…
07-05 15:09:58	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0x428bd6…
07-05 15:09:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x9ff1c3…
07-05 15:09:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x693627…
07-05 14:31:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0xbdf82d…
07-05 06:07:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x55f5e1…
07-05 05:11:44	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x4b70c6…
07-04 22:38:35	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe74bb5…
07-04 20:27:10	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	98	10¢	$10	0xa5d967…
07-04 20:24:41	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	174	10¢	$17	0xec8036…
07-04 19:58:02	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x47977d…
07-04 19:41:37	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0x9053f4…
07-04 19:28:49	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$3	0xc13e97…
07-04 08:16:38	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x75983f…
07-03 23:43:34	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x3d1329…
07-03 21:43:34	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0xd0ca14…
07-03 21:39:20	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	36	13¢	$5	0x36a48c…
07-03 21:21:59	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	118	11¢	$13	0x6950a7…
07-03 19:30:05	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	32	10¢	$3	0x99e14c…
07-03 17:11:31	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	33	22¢	$7	0x2c87bd…
07-03 17:09:29	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	18	22¢	$4	0x241836…
07-01 23:04:19	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x60b9b4…
07-01 22:56:25	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	111	26¢	$29	0xba8b83…
07-01 21:45:02	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x91d617…
07-01 21:16:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	145	26¢	$38	0xe3ecb5…