Tremendous-Chaos — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$161

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.2%

Resolved

344

Trades

624

lifetime

Volume

$2.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 10-18 09:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

67% 58% -$195

Sports

15% 52% +$95

Politics

11% 74% -$33

Crypto

7% 61% -$23

Tech

1% 50% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	57	$208	285	0	+285	Yes	-$208	06-14 11:13
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$111	64	64	+0	No	-$1	08-06 23:01
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	23	$104	115	0	+115	No	+$12	06-11 17:42
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	3	$44	104	0	+104	No	+$35	09-16 21:16
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees	19	$42	95	0	+95	Toronto Blue Jays	+$53	05-21 19:55
Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	3	$39	97	0	+97	Yes	-$39	09-24 15:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$38	88	88	+0	open	—	08-06 23:13
wta alexand tauson 2026 08 26	4	$36	76	0	+76	Clara Tauson	+$32	08-27 04:47
mlb kc cin 2026 06 03	17	$36	85	0	+85	Kansas City Royals	+$49	06-03 22:35
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$35	36	0	+36	No	+$0	07-28 09:59
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$1	10-10 23:33
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?	2	$32	17	17	+0	No	+$1	10-10 23:24
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	3	$31	42	0	+42	Washington Nationals	+$11	08-27 18:24
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	2	$29	150	0	+150	Yes	-$29	10-09 02:19
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	1	$27	29	0	+29	No	+$2	06-30 21:01
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	08-06 23:01
atp benitos barton 2026 08 27	2	$22	36	0	+36	Benito Sanchez Martinez	+$13	08-27 09:43
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds	8	$19	40	0	+40	Cincinnati Reds	-$19	06-02 22:19
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	1	$19	32	0	+32	Yes	+$13	06-26 21:15
will nvda reach 216 in august 2026	1	$19	32	0	+32	Yes	-$19	08-01 05:01
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$19	28	0	+28	No	-$2	07-19 21:23
lol blg hle1 2026 07 12	1	$17	43	0	+43	Hanwha Life Esports	+$26	07-12 05:48
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?	3	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	10-10 23:23
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	2	$17	36	36	+0	open	—	10-10 23:23
fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	1	$17	34	0	+34	Under	-$17	06-27 21:32
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	2	$16	42	0	+42	No	+$26	06-25 18:34
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	1	$16	30	0	+30	Yes	+$14	06-26 02:57
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	2	$16	18	0	+18	No	+$2	06-30 18:52
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	2	$16	17	0	+17	No	+$1	09-17 02:16
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	1	$16	19	0	+19	No	+$3	09-17 02:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 09:47:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x059f81…
10-10 23:33:27	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x420add…
10-10 23:24:25	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x561a0f…
10-10 23:23:54	Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	17¢	$6	0x7ffeab…
10-10 23:23:10	Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xb705e3…
10-10 23:22:52	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x83652b…
10-10 23:22:45	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x919ad8…
10-10 23:22:34	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x4fb28d…
10-10 23:22:24	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xad89bc…
10-10 23:22:18	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x786439…
10-10 23:22:12	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x9e5402…
10-10 23:21:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7abb84…
10-10 23:21:52	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xdbfb09…
10-10 23:21:45	Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xd02002…
10-10 23:21:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	7¢	$3	0xb05220…
10-10 23:21:31	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x7cf601…
10-10 23:21:25	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x268176…
10-10 23:21:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x360c68…
10-10 23:21:10	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x727161…
10-10 23:21:03	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x33c35b…
10-10 23:20:55	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x1ec06f…
10-10 23:20:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xe382d8…
10-10 23:20:42	Amazon 2026 capex above $200B?	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x8e707e…
10-10 23:20:34	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x22ec51…
10-10 23:20:13	Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xf1c004…
10-09 20:22:40	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?	Yes	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x135ea0…
10-09 14:01:39	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0x76df86…
10-09 13:56:37	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xc318d3…
10-09 02:19:23	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	No	BUY	68	19¢	$13	0x8b7ab1…
10-09 02:19:20	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	No	BUY	82	19¢	$16	0x9da6a2…
09-25 17:04:59	Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$16	0xb8210c…
09-25 17:04:56	Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 31m?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x50d5ae…
09-24 19:13:45	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x7f6882…
09-24 15:54:14	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	32	38¢	$12	0xee7d0c…
09-24 15:49:12	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	29	39¢	$11	0x6ca35c…
09-24 14:54:06	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	36	43¢	$16	0xef6b97…
09-24 12:28:31	Valorant: TYLOO vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C	G2 Esports	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0x3196bc…
09-24 10:58:17	atp damm mochizu 2026 09 24	Martin Damm	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1f3db7…
09-24 08:35:21	us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0x5ab1e8…
09-24 05:11:48	Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0x77aca4…
09-24 04:07:12	San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	San Diego Padres	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xf60792…
09-24 03:12:04	Korea Open: Yexin Ma vs Kimberly Birrell	Kimberly Birrell	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x15a8e2…
09-24 01:16:49	mlb cin atl 2026 09 23	Atlanta Braves	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0x6b155d…
09-23 23:11:35	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x1c39da…
09-23 21:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	294	0¢	$0	0xd37026…
09-23 20:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x722a83…
09-23 20:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x82432c…
09-23 19:12:35	Bahamas vs. Saint-Martin: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x8ee6b8…
09-23 19:12:35	Bahamas vs. Saint-Martin: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0x64f0ca…
09-17 10:02:28	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x73a3e5…
09-17 02:16:33	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xc20217…
09-17 02:16:33	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$4	0x9a8731…
09-17 02:16:30	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x6a9d07…
09-16 21:36:09	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0xd14288…
09-16 21:16:07	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	24	64¢	$16	0xec27ad…
09-16 20:16:01	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	36	36¢	$13	0xfeee99…
09-16 20:15:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	12¢	$5	0x5ef4fd…
09-16 20:00:52	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	43	36¢	$16	0xc3a35c…
08-28 08:24:51	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x7c8633…
08-28 02:44:04	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0x761815…
08-28 02:39:09	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0xcdc45c…
08-28 02:36:52	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x125e83…
08-28 02:20:52	49ers vs. Raiders	Raiders	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xfa859a…
08-28 01:55:49	atp fery kovacev 2026 08 27	Aleksandar Kovacevic	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x1b3a54…
08-28 01:21:52	Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xa91822…
08-28 01:11:49	wnba wsh phx 2026 08 27 spread away 4pt5	Phoenix Mercury	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x238dcd…
08-28 00:10:36	wnba gsv nyl 2026 08 27 spread home 3pt5	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x431f2b…
08-27 22:00:18	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	27	52¢	$14	0x7bc293…
08-27 21:40:18	atp gaubas wendelk 2026 08 27	Harry Wendelken	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x898d2a…
08-27 19:30:25	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	Team Falcons	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xa79d11…
08-27 19:30:10	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	Team Falcons	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0x46fdb0…
08-27 19:18:03	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0xb9d3fa…
08-27 18:24:54	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x940e1e…
08-27 18:24:51	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	BUY	18	79¢	$14	0x4eeb41…
08-27 18:12:55	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x5701ce…
08-27 17:04:37	Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x8269cc…
08-27 09:43:28	atp benitos barton 2026 08 27	Benito Sanchez Martinez	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0x3f7522…
08-27 09:43:27	atp benitos barton 2026 08 27	Benito Sanchez Martinez	BUY	23	63¢	$14	0xcd2077…
08-27 08:44:25	lol ns fox1 2026 08 27 game2	BNK FEARX	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0x3afe6e…
08-27 04:47:49	wta alexand tauson 2026 08 26	Clara Tauson	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x4478fa…
08-27 04:03:48	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xbf4ad0…
08-27 03:52:42	wta alexand tauson 2026 08 26	Clara Tauson	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0x303f1f…
08-27 03:52:40	wta alexand tauson 2026 08 26	Clara Tauson	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0x980c46…
08-27 03:47:39	wta alexand tauson 2026 08 26	Ekaterina Alexandrova	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xb6d31e…
08-27 03:38:00	Toronto Tempo vs. Seattle Storm	Seattle Storm	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x584a6d…
08-16 23:58:51	atp sonego tiafoe 2026 08 16	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x5a25d6…
08-16 18:00:24	mlb mia cin 2026 08 16	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x72b97b…
08-15 03:34:54	dota2 vsn2 ts8 2026 08 15	TEAM VISION	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x8d7763…
08-14 23:29:36	mlb bos pit 2026 08 14	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	19	55¢	$11	0x67ccd4…
08-14 02:48:49	nfl ten sf 2026 08 14 spread away 6pt5	TEN	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x09b67c…
08-13 22:03:58	mlb phi min 2026 08 13	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x809ee3…
08-13 21:27:42	Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski	Thiago Agustin Tirante	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x6e720b…
08-12 23:30:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xda9833…
08-06 23:13:42	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x02351f…
08-06 23:13:23	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x12fef9…
08-06 23:13:09	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	SELL	8	97¢	$7	0xc81ae2…
08-06 23:13:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	88	17¢	$15	0x0f0cf0…
08-06 23:01:23	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0x998cca…
08-06 23:01:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	64	86¢	$55	0xda9c16…
08-06 20:05:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	31	89¢	$27	0x24c710…