Submissive-Stage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

97.7%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$152.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$745

Open exposure

$83

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 10-26 02:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

99% 97% +$22

Crypto

1% 100% +$1

Politics

0% 86% -$17

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+30	$29	98¢	$29	$0	10-26 02:15
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+28	$27	97¢	$27	$0	10-26 02:14
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	+27	$27	100¢	$27	$0	10-26 02:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	81	$56.7K	77,650	0	+77,650	No	+$403	02-05 05:40
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$55.9K	76,651	0	+76,651	No	+$716	02-05 05:44
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$34.3K	36,651	0	+36,651	No	+$2,356	02-05 05:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	20	$3.5K	36,651	0	+36,651	Yes	-$3,455	02-05 05:43
highest temperature in nyc on april 4 2026 42 43f	1	$81	82	0	+82	No	+$0	04-03 04:18
highest temperature in lucknow on march 22 2026 36c	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	03-22 03:24
highest temperature in miami on march 17 2026 82forhigher	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	03-17 10:11
highest temperature in miami on march 16 2026 96forhigher	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	03-16 06:50
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	1	$65	65	0	+65	No	+$0	04-05 03:17
highest temperature in wellington on march 28 2026 14c	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-27 03:07
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$48	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-24 07:19
highest temperature in wellington on march 15 2026 15c	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	03-14 08:28
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$46	23	23	+0	No	+$0	06-14 08:37
highest temperature in paris on march 24 2026 13c	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	03-24 03:05
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$44	22	22	+0	open	—	10-26 02:12
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	10-26 02:12
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	10-26 02:12
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 24 2026 32c	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	03-24 03:07
solana above 140 on march 12	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	03-10 03:05
highest temperature in nyc on march 14 2026 58forhigher	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	03-14 08:28
xrp above 2pt4 on february 1	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	01-31 03:22
will xrp dip to 1 in january 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	01-31 03:16
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 480 499	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	02-13 08:26
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	02-27 07:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	10-26 02:15
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 8?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	05-07 04:48
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$27	28	0	+28	open	—	10-26 02:14
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	10-26 02:16
solana above 70 on march 10	1	$26	26	0	+26	Yes	+$0	03-10 03:04
will bitcoin reach 72k july 27 august 2 2026	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	08-01 09:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 02:16:05	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xcf40d4…
10-26 02:15:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x49601a…
10-26 02:14:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xe665aa…
10-26 02:12:42	Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x586f80…
10-26 02:12:30	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x5d9a35…
10-26 02:12:09	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x89b2fe…
09-04 11:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on September 5?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xf912f2…
08-29 09:59:06	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x59966b…
08-27 02:24:39	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7d60ea…
08-27 02:24:03	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2f9d46…
08-27 02:23:52	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xac8bcf…
08-01 09:42:36	ethereum above 1600 on august 1 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x348eb8…
08-01 09:42:03	will ethereum dip to 1400 july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2f98d6…
08-01 09:41:09	will bitcoin reach 72k july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf1ea86…
07-01 08:42:04	solana above 20 on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xec1a8f…
07-01 08:41:50	solana above 100 on july 3 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xde3800…
07-01 08:41:35	solana above 90 on july 2 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xcb7fb9…
07-01 08:41:11	will solana dip to 10 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x39b48b…
07-01 08:40:44	Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x114db9…
06-14 08:40:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x48faa2…
06-14 08:39:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xee9ce3…
06-14 08:39:25	bitcoin above 52k on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd2e530…
06-14 08:39:09	bitcoin above 72k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2a1254…
06-14 08:38:37	bitcoin above 72k on june 14 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x757d75…
06-14 08:37:24	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x49d72c…
05-24 07:19:17	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0xcc03d4…
05-18 03:51:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x474d5c…
05-18 03:50:37	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6af098…
05-18 03:49:50	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x998083…
05-18 03:49:38	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x09289f…
05-07 04:48:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 8?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xf84fbf…
05-07 04:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on May 9?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xdca5a0…
05-07 04:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 7?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf411bf…
05-07 04:47:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 8?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2715bd…
04-17 05:39:28	highest temperature in dallas on april 17 2026 92 93f	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe59552…
04-09 08:38:59	highest temperature in austin on april 10 2026 60 61f	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5af328…
04-05 03:18:03	will the price of solana be between 40 50 on april 6	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7eed7d…
04-05 03:17:17	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x1dcd16…
04-03 04:18:31	highest temperature in nyc on april 4 2026 42 43f	No	BUY	82	100¢	$81	0x998845…
03-27 03:07:37	highest temperature in wellington on march 28 2026 14c	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x39f379…
03-24 03:07:01	highest temperature in buenos aires on march 24 2026 32c	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x6dea02…
03-24 03:05:43	highest temperature in paris on march 24 2026 13c	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x7e0e6e…
03-22 03:24:51	highest temperature in lucknow on march 22 2026 36c	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x88d527…
03-17 10:11:43	highest temperature in miami on march 17 2026 82forhigher	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x31ecd4…
03-16 06:50:27	highest temperature in miami on march 16 2026 96forhigher	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x76e590…
03-14 08:28:59	highest temperature in wellington on march 15 2026 15c	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x01bf7d…
03-14 08:28:25	highest temperature in nyc on march 14 2026 58forhigher	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x9809b2…
03-10 03:05:07	solana above 140 on march 12	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x94a4b9…
03-10 03:04:51	solana above 60 on march 11	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x08a9c0…
03-10 03:04:35	solana above 70 on march 10	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2ea19a…
03-06 13:42:11	will the price of solana be between 100 110 on march 6	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf44cba…
03-06 13:40:55	solana above 140 on march 9	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xb35f5e…
03-06 13:40:37	solana above 50 on march 8	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2e8a47…
03-06 13:40:07	solana above 100 on march 6	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xec9c40…
02-27 07:54:17	will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x28975c…
02-27 07:53:41	will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2631eb…
02-27 07:53:17	will trump declare war on iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x56d336…
02-27 07:52:55	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xaacb6a…
02-27 07:52:19	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x84a92f…
02-23 13:02:38	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 76000 on february 25	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa60b15…
02-23 13:01:44	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 76000 on february 24	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xadea3f…
02-23 13:00:06	bitcoin above 78k on february 25	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5be792…
02-23 12:59:42	bitcoin above 74k on february 24	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x1b6a5d…
02-23 12:59:28	bitcoin above 70k on february 23	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x3b9c76…
02-19 07:54:14	will the price of xrp be less than 1pt00 on february 20	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd8c843…
02-19 07:53:32	will xrp reach 2pt2 february 16 22	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc0c8ec…
02-19 07:52:20	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on february 19	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa9c562…
02-19 07:51:54	bitcoin above 80k on february 21	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc0a33c…
02-19 07:51:42	bitcoin above 58k on february 20	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0b0bae…
02-19 07:51:20	bitcoin above 72k on february 19	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd52d37…
02-13 08:26:45	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 480 499	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa78532…
02-13 08:26:25	grok 4pt20 released by february 14	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x451c17…
02-13 08:25:57	will claude 5 be released on february 14 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x8a17d2…
02-13 08:25:41	will grok 4pt20 be released on february 13 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5ac897…
02-13 08:25:19	odds of us strikes iran in february over 50 by feb 13	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd69c92…
02-13 08:24:57	will israel strike lebanon on february 11 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x744206…
02-13 08:24:39	will the us next strike iran on february 12 2026 et	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa501ce…
02-07 04:13:59	solana above 150 on february 10	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc53e23…
02-07 04:13:13	will solana dip to 30 february 2 8	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x90e8b5…
02-07 04:12:37	will the price of xrp be greater than 2pt00 on february 8	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x1feb61…
02-07 04:11:57	will the price of xrp be between 1pt80 1pt90 on february 7	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6c0d13…
02-07 04:11:29	xrp above 2 on february 8	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa85270…
02-05 05:53:49	will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on february 6	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x465682…
02-05 05:53:37	will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on february 5	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x01c415…
02-05 05:52:41	bitcoin above 90k on february 7	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x490dba…
02-05 05:52:29	bitcoin above 90k on february 6	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3d885b…
02-05 05:44:53	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	15,651	93¢	$14,555	0x513eb5…
02-05 05:44:27	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	15,651	98¢	$15,353	0xafc7e3…
02-05 05:43:17	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	10,651	10¢	$1,065	0x388460…
02-05 05:40:45	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	5,000	10¢	$500	0xfac302…
02-05 05:40:11	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	181	99¢	$179	0x6a1937…
02-05 05:39:39	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	181	99¢	$179	0x56043f…
02-05 05:31:51	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	909	99¢	$899	0x7a44cb…
02-05 05:29:33	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0x743933…
02-05 05:22:55	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x4b539c…
02-05 05:21:01	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xcee05c…
02-05 05:03:39	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xbed44c…
02-05 04:45:57	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x0fe308…
02-05 04:45:13	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1b4c21…
02-05 04:43:19	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x2d561a…