Overlooked-Leverage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$339

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.2%

Resolved

Trades

658

lifetime

Volume

$195.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$297

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 08-18 07:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 89% +$333

Politics

14% — —

Other

2% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 68k on february 25	19	$28.0K	28,032	0	+28,032	open	—	02-25 19:54
bitcoin up or down on february 25	17	$24.5K	24,481	0	+24,481	open	—	02-25 20:26
bitcoin above 66k on february 27	39	$20.8K	20,773	0	+20,773	open	—	02-27 19:19
bitcoin up or down on march 20 2026	4	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	03-20 17:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	78	$17.3K	23,801	0	+23,801	open	—	02-27 14:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	36	$17.1K	23,091	0	+23,091	open	—	05-06 02:41
bitcoin up or down on february 26	18	$14.5K	14,516	0	+14,516	open	—	02-26 19:25
trump out as president by march 31	4	$9.8K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	02-28 08:27
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	51	$7.8K	16,779	0	+16,779	open	—	08-04 19:34
bitcoin above 68k on february 26	13	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	02-26 17:46
bitcoin up or down on february 27	28	$2.8K	3,784	1,000	+2,784	open	—	02-27 20:22
will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	10	$2.6K	1,567	1,567	+0	open	—	08-16 16:46
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	9	$2.4K	2,496	0	+2,496	open	—	03-23 10:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	23	$2.3K	7,694	0	+7,694	open	—	05-29 04:03
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.2K	1,384	0	+1,384	open	—	07-28 15:56
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	3	$1.2K	1,200	9	+1,191	open	—	03-23 10:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25?	6	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	05-25 09:29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?	12	$799	915	0	+915	No	+$116	05-06 16:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	5	$571	610	0	+610	No	+$39	05-05 05:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?	9	$565	600	0	+600	No	+$35	05-06 10:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7?	11	$505	570	0	+570	No	+$65	05-06 11:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?	1	$493	500	0	+500	No	+$7	05-05 05:12
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	4	$492	0	500	-500	open	—	08-16 18:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	2	$480	500	0	+500	open	—	05-25 10:02
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$407	414	0	+414	No	+$8	03-19 17:22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	1	$376	400	0	+400	open	—	05-18 01:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	1	$289	300	0	+300	open	—	05-20 04:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9?	4	$287	300	0	+300	No	+$13	05-06 01:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	4	$265	300	0	+300	No	+$35	05-07 07:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?	4	$257	300	0	+300	No	+$43	05-05 05:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 07:53:49	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0xe4a4fc…
08-16 18:25:51	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	143	98¢	$140	0xa571f7…
08-16 16:46:51	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	SELL	965	85¢	$820	0x3c167a…
08-16 10:53:57	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	232	98¢	$228	0x5023b7…
08-16 10:53:57	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	75	98¢	$74	0x2ab382…
08-16 07:40:16	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x918c10…
08-10 07:51:19	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x3ca4ae…
08-09 03:53:09	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	SELL	602	85¢	$512	0x05707d…
08-04 19:34:45	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xc20c47…
08-04 19:07:50	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0xea759d…
08-03 05:46:12	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xf2aecb…
08-01 16:19:50	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x5813be…
08-01 06:10:20	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x0f26a3…
08-01 06:09:26	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x7ed158…
08-01 06:08:59	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc1744f…
08-01 03:17:06	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xad1f75…
08-01 03:11:05	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x5314e7…
08-01 03:05:57	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xee91e1…
08-01 03:01:15	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xbadd2f…
08-01 03:00:50	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xb839bc…
08-01 02:56:14	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x086596…
08-01 02:55:42	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xd8dbcf…
08-01 02:51:11	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x52604b…
08-01 02:50:36	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xbbd557…
08-01 02:46:09	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x970776…
07-28 18:03:40	OKX IPO in 2026?	No	BUY	71	90¢	$64	0x5d4974…
07-28 15:56:50	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	384	87¢	$334	0x807529…
07-27 16:59:37	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	455	78¢	$355	0x5da155…
07-27 12:55:49	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	85	78¢	$66	0xc12a31…
07-27 07:11:49	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0xf70ff9…
07-27 06:06:18	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	626	80¢	$501	0xa99d6a…
07-27 02:26:15	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe340de…
07-26 22:02:24	China coup attempt before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x27e533…
07-24 15:34:49	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	221	88¢	$195	0x4bc8bc…
07-24 03:52:24	Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xae141c…
07-23 15:33:06	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	779	88¢	$685	0xd1a031…
07-22 18:45:51	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x37bf51…
07-22 14:52:00	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	93	80¢	$75	0x8b0801…
07-22 14:18:18	will ethereum reach 3000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	270	80¢	$216	0x6f3397…
07-19 19:19:01	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	604	43¢	$260	0xeb0fe7…
07-08 17:40:52	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0x702c9d…
07-01 08:41:55	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8bdb41…
06-30 13:13:43	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	382	43¢	$164	0xe7e2ea…
06-29 16:35:19	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xdb6187…
06-25 11:09:01	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	296	44¢	$130	0xee0c8e…
06-25 04:40:16	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	704	44¢	$310	0xcdb984…
06-15 08:16:36	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x3555d6…
06-14 07:39:36	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x01597f…
06-14 06:22:49	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	62	44¢	$27	0x2e6a50…
06-14 06:22:49	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	300	44¢	$132	0x16457c…
06-10 11:45:55	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	5,000	44¢	$2,200	0x33b354…
06-07 12:55:48	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	56	41¢	$23	0x15a8a8…
06-06 19:44:42	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x351655…
06-06 16:24:51	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xe7258a…
06-06 13:07:33	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	770	45¢	$346	0x726586…
06-06 12:43:28	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	97	45¢	$43	0x47780a…
06-05 15:16:40	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xf90770…
06-05 14:44:09	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	128	47¢	$60	0x96b381…
06-05 14:42:12	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	167	47¢	$79	0x24fa2e…
06-05 14:36:57	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	283	47¢	$133	0xef3adf…
06-05 14:32:04	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	183	47¢	$86	0x9f5a87…
06-05 14:22:30	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	482	47¢	$227	0x4240a6…
06-05 14:18:18	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	276	47¢	$130	0xd89ef7…
06-05 14:07:31	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	169	47¢	$79	0x42e328…
06-05 13:30:16	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	542	47¢	$255	0x6949a0…
06-05 13:28:57	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	533	47¢	$251	0x8a7e6f…
06-05 06:49:55	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x548e64…
06-05 03:19:07	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	2,740	47¢	$1,288	0x33ecda…
06-05 03:15:27	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	693	47¢	$326	0x6a111b…
06-02 18:13:22	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	773	53¢	$410	0xaf8a2c…
06-02 07:03:16	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	3	53¢	$1	0x8be198…
06-02 01:47:23	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	150	53¢	$80	0xaad9a0…
05-29 14:32:08	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	644	54¢	$348	0x5a70aa…
05-29 04:03:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	204	14¢	$29	0xd6f6c1…
05-29 02:43:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x71248c…
05-29 02:43:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0xac19e7…
05-29 02:41:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xb85549…
05-29 02:40:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x84bdab…
05-29 02:40:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x9f8dcb…
05-28 16:52:37	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	314	54¢	$170	0xd5cd25…
05-28 14:33:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0x2c3495…
05-28 13:49:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	14¢	$8	0x1a43d6…
05-28 11:56:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,609	14¢	$645	0x7148d9…
05-28 00:55:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xd70d02…
05-27 17:42:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x664db4…
05-27 17:42:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x1a2abd…
05-27 17:36:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x66e4ba…
05-27 17:27:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x403288…
05-27 17:15:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x7af5e3…
05-27 16:18:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	48	98¢	$48	0xebaed3…
05-27 16:18:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x94e823…
05-27 16:05:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xc232f4…
05-27 16:05:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xbf9696…
05-27 13:29:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x803477…
05-27 11:32:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x8d1c63…
05-27 08:32:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaf20dc…
05-27 02:03:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	95	82¢	$78	0x1e887d…
05-27 01:39:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xaebd3e…
05-27 01:28:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xa38416…
05-27 00:54:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd3ef6e…