Disastrous-Questionnaire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49

Unrealized P&L

-$40

Hit rate

36.8%

Resolved

Trades

249

lifetime

Volume

$2.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$58

1 position

First seen

2026-05-24

last 10-26 08:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

64% 28% -$124

Sports

36% 20% +$74

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes		+900	$99	6¢	$58	-$40	10-18 21:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	6	$323	218	218	+0	No	+$99	06-25 03:40
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	12	$294	930	930	+0	open	—	10-26 08:42
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$282	220	220	+0	Yes	-$22	07-17 20:26
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$126	620	260	+360	Yes	+$301	07-06 09:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$100	200	0	+200	No	-$100	08-28 14:29
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	4	$99	900	0	+900	open	—	10-18 21:13
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$73	640	40	+600	No	-$68	07-06 15:01
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$56	350	0	+350	No	-$56	06-08 15:47
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$51	460	0	+460	No	-$51	06-08 08:05
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$50	81	0	+81	No	-$50	05-24 15:42
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	2	$45	150	0	+150	open	—	09-28 18:19
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$45	1,120	0	+1,120	No	-$45	06-07 14:20
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$30	129	0	+129	Yes	+$99	05-24 15:41
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$29	350	0	+350	No	-$29	06-08 06:17
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 spread home 1pt5	2	$20	40	40	+0	Egypt	-$18	07-07 17:45
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 29?	9	$20	40	40	+0	No	+$2	07-29 07:16
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?	3	$14	30	30	+0	No	-$2	07-26 15:42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?	2	$12	30	30	+0	No	-$10	07-29 09:42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?	5	$12	32	32	+0	No	-$8	07-26 09:10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?	8	$11	30	30	+0	No	-$11	07-27 10:12
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 26?	10	$10	30	30	+0	No	-$10	07-26 09:12
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?	4	$10	44	0	+44	No	-$10	07-25 15:44
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 26?	3	$10	23	0	+23	No	-$10	07-25 15:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$10	12	0	+12	No	+$2	05-25 10:24
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 25?	15	$10	100	0	+100	No	-$10	07-24 22:31
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?	3	$10	25	25	+0	No	-$9	07-29 09:16
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?	5	$10	40	0	+40	No	-$10	07-28 15:49
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?	2	$9	15	15	+0	No	-$2	08-06 07:41
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 31?	3	$9	30	30	+0	No	-$9	07-31 14:59
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 28?	3	$9	30	0	+30	Yes	+$21	07-27 19:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 08:42:02	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	245	4¢	$10	0xb71b7c…
10-25 16:35:45	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	245	4¢	$10	0x9bc353…
10-18 21:13:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	89	10¢	$9	0xc7c902…
10-18 19:58:08	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	211	10¢	$21	0x702cad…
09-28 18:19:30	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	BUY	137	30¢	$41	0xb8c2a7…
09-28 00:45:00	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xbd0348…
08-28 14:29:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	93	50¢	$47	0x7c2fc6…
08-28 14:29:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x7b7778…
08-28 14:29:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	50¢	$38	0x32423c…
08-13 19:28:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1f1acb…
08-13 14:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x020215…
08-13 10:07:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x063770…
08-13 09:34:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x7f6ca4…
08-13 09:32:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x83c330…
08-13 03:42:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x42e698…
08-13 03:42:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x82d770…
08-13 02:35:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0xc4de60…
08-13 02:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x8f2dfa…
08-13 00:14:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x2e3d43…
08-13 00:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x5762a6…
08-12 17:43:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xf0b5f1…
08-10 16:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0xeb5d10…
08-10 08:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4e7006…
08-10 07:55:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x2123c3…
08-10 07:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x3ffd0f…
08-10 07:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x283d95…
08-10 06:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xa2b37c…
08-10 04:16:55	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	0	44¢	$0	0x30deca…
08-10 04:16:55	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x28a383…
08-10 04:16:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x61f8c8…
08-09 23:47:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4ed127…
08-09 18:12:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x690043…
08-09 17:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xcc0872…
08-09 16:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x42a437…
08-09 05:39:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x85ebc8…
08-09 04:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x289d12…
08-09 01:15:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0xac5343…
08-09 01:05:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x601606…
08-09 00:46:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xee7c95…
08-09 00:45:34	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf917e7…
08-09 00:15:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xeb211d…
08-08 22:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x842a8a…
08-08 06:45:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?	Yes	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x6ab2ed…
08-08 06:45:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xe042b1…
08-08 06:33:52	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x4f5f6a…
08-08 03:38:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xee0378…
08-08 03:38:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xb4815b…
08-07 21:05:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x4572cf…
08-07 21:05:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf143be…
08-07 15:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x01e798…
08-07 08:45:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xd1b538…
08-07 02:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x25ced1…
08-06 16:38:54	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x84cefe…
08-06 16:34:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x9bf691…
08-06 16:18:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x056612…
08-06 16:16:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x8c3252…
08-06 12:48:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x6456a2…
08-06 10:07:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x2cb140…
08-06 07:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0xb995b8…
08-06 06:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xeb09b6…
08-06 06:39:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x85c2d2…
08-06 06:39:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xcc2929…
08-06 00:57:41	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x31a791…
08-06 00:29:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xecc8ab…
08-06 00:29:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xebc2bb…
08-05 23:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x60ccae…
08-05 21:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x54348d…
08-05 21:42:53	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x12574c…
08-05 20:58:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xb84e31…
08-05 20:53:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xb0cc99…
08-05 18:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xfa0069…
08-05 08:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x301d89…
08-05 07:59:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x645b93…
08-05 07:58:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xee94ff…
08-05 04:45:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5?	Yes	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x7bfd77…
08-05 04:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xd6f02c…
08-05 03:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xab12d9…
08-04 20:08:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x18e6a2…
08-04 20:05:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0f880d…
08-04 20:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x2ee163…
08-04 17:08:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x798500…
08-04 16:55:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xa12856…
08-03 21:48:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0xb9e9a3…
08-03 20:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x6cb863…
08-03 20:08:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xb45daa…
08-03 20:08:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x98a393…
08-03 19:18:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xee2114…
08-02 21:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0xfd7815…
08-02 20:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb867b0…
08-02 20:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xb1114a…
08-02 20:05:35	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xfa49b1…
08-02 20:03:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xcee827…
08-02 20:03:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x721767…
08-02 18:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xcfd7dd…
08-02 18:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xdb5f97…
08-02 17:19:17	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x0c5a3e…
08-02 17:16:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x04a3f7…
08-02 17:16:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x6911ef…
08-02 17:13:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0x952f24…
08-02 17:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 3?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x769fac…