Grubby-Chandelier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$132

Unrealized P&L

-$2.02K

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

Trades

10,110

lifetime

Volume

$3.69M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$365

Open exposure

$16.1K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-18 18:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

80% 78% $-1,026

Other

11% 92% +$250

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% 100% +$908

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 453 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+18,667	$16,110	74¢	$13.7K	$-2,390	06-14 23:52
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+1,766	$1,311	86¢	$1.5K	+$199	06-08 21:19
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+659	$157	82¢	$537	+$380	06-18 19:58
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+1,766	$263	15¢	$256	$-7	06-08 21:25
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+659	$329	18¢	$122	$-207	06-17 20:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	429	$270.1K	620,296	277,257	+343,039	open	—	06-14 23:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	999	$267.2K	274,439	193,762	+80,677	open	—	04-01 23:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	316	$215.1K	311,529	226,334	+85,195	open	—	06-14 21:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$110.2K	111,110	0	+111,110	open	—	06-03 21:41
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	209	$96.8K	91,535	54,047	+37,488	open	—	03-15 03:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	234	$87.4K	136,700	59,107	+77,592	open	—	02-28 21:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	228	$85.4K	278,039	146,519	+131,519	open	—	05-29 22:25
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	220	$83.6K	103,737	63,742	+39,995	open	—	04-07 23:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	51	$73.8K	95,726	25,284	+70,442	open	—	04-07 23:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	126	$60.2K	184,978	66,169	+118,809	open	—	05-26 21:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	63	$58.8K	59,531	56,595	+2,936	open	—	04-07 23:46
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	207	$53.4K	57,532	24,422	+33,110	open	—	02-01 06:08
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	120	$52.6K	88,548	34,705	+53,843	open	—	06-15 03:08
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	102	$47.5K	118,909	25,022	+93,886	open	—	04-07 23:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	8	$47.3K	41,566	6,313	+35,253	open	—	05-13 02:07
netanyahu out by march 31 854	32	$45.1K	23,402	23,241	+161	open	—	03-23 01:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	17	$44.5K	30,204	15,959	+14,245	open	—	05-27 23:22
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	89	$42.9K	62,808	21,500	+41,308	open	—	01-30 03:59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	16	$40.2K	33,137	14,470	+18,667	open	—	06-14 23:52
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	41	$39.0K	40,119	0	+40,119	open	—	04-02 00:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	91	$37.1K	113,398	8,220	+105,178	open	—	04-27 03:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	40	$37.0K	80,539	2,462	+78,077	open	—	05-21 23:33
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$36.7K	30,000	10,000	+20,000	open	—	04-15 03:43
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	21	$33.4K	30,555	5,555	+25,000	open	—	04-30 22:54
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	33	$33.4K	17,500	16,860	+640	open	—	03-11 00:10
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	39	$32.7K	18,157	18,425	-268	open	—	05-22 22:28
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	304	$31.5K	42,894	6,005	+36,889	open	—	02-21 01:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	89	$29.2K	85,894	38,892	+47,002	open	—	05-13 22:00
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	72	$29.0K	37,856	32,224	+5,632	open	—	03-24 19:39
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	58	$27.4K	29,066	0	+29,066	open	—	05-15 00:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 18:10:09	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 assists desire doue gte1	Yes	BUY	766	8¢	$64	0xb7352b…
07-17 01:20:05	will trump say biden 5 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621422	Yes	BUY	188	36¢	$68	0xa2531f…
07-17 00:43:14	will trump say annihilated or annihilating during speech to the nation 20260713200621431	No	BUY	730	76¢	$554	0x8a899a…
07-17 00:38:52	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	2,359	40¢	$935	0x77936e…
07-17 00:34:50	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x307409…
07-17 00:25:58	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	1,700	26¢	$442	0x6d1374…
07-17 00:15:25	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	502	26¢	$130	0x32d7ad…
07-17 00:12:10	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	370	32¢	$118	0x59f0c4…
07-16 23:52:01	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x4be24b…
07-16 23:48:25	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	1,669	37¢	$618	0x45c268…
07-16 23:45:50	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x3619c2…
07-16 23:40:44	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0x3d3048…
07-16 23:40:41	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x7ffcde…
07-16 23:40:25	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	523	37¢	$194	0xdca2d4…
07-16 23:40:19	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x3f6185…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0xe71990…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	859	42¢	$358	0xbdb167…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xbc7d2e…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x9705f0…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x7cb65c…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x68f278…
07-16 23:39:08	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x0545d4…
07-16 23:31:43	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	29	38¢	$11	0xf6b01d…
07-16 23:31:34	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x65e32c…
07-16 23:27:01	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	No	BUY	1,250	42¢	$519	0x728019…
07-16 23:15:53	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x3f9820…
07-16 22:57:28	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x0e024b…
07-16 22:56:49	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xcb20b5…
07-16 22:56:49	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x256f00…
07-16 22:56:44	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0xe73b42…
07-16 22:54:41	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xfa7c2d…
07-16 22:50:02	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0x6b74da…
07-16 22:43:49	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	31	23¢	$7	0xa0515c…
07-16 22:25:37	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	573	30¢	$170	0x52a685…
07-16 21:41:35	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	No	BUY	128	70¢	$89	0xd78133…
07-16 21:28:47	will trump say biden 5 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621422	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7b2829…
07-16 21:13:10	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x98dd13…
07-16 20:18:02	will trump say nuclear 15 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621421	No	BUY	202	94¢	$190	0x52c481…
07-16 20:08:59	will trump say annihilated or annihilating during speech to the nation 20260713200621431	No	BUY	54	73¢	$39	0x0059dd…
07-16 19:58:59	will trump say annihilated or annihilating during speech to the nation 20260713200621431	No	BUY	531	73¢	$387	0x2eb0a7…
07-14 18:22:28	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals julian alvarez gte1	Yes	BUY	1,713	20¢	$343	0xb3a960…
07-13 22:55:01	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 13 20260708001726329	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb6a0ba…
07-10 22:07:34	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 10 20260703170519586	Yes	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0x39ef85…
07-08 04:01:04	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193 839	Yes	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0xf4c521…
07-07 06:58:22	will the announcers say red devil during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348898	No	SELL	237	99¢	$235	0x02449e…
07-07 06:57:20	will the announcers say nfl during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348892	No	SELL	132	99¢	$130	0xb418a7…
07-07 02:00:02	will the announcers say ronaldo during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348907	No	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,970	0x129b6c…
07-06 23:46:31	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348886	Yes	BUY	878	62¢	$544	0x86a3a4…
07-06 22:42:26	will the announcers say nfl during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348892	No	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0xd4bc37…
07-06 22:25:47	will the announcers say nfl during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348892	No	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0x23424a…
07-06 22:24:34	will the announcers say nfl during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348892	No	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x26e2c4…
07-06 21:55:29	will the announcers say extra time during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348895	No	BUY	1,122	20¢	$223	0xd9d4a6…
07-06 21:49:46	will the announcers say red devil during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348898	No	BUY	237	20¢	$48	0xe378bf…
07-06 21:22:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	938	22¢	$206	0xd62fee…
07-06 21:22:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x63c4e3…
07-06 21:22:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x855667…
07-06 21:22:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	110	22¢	$24	0x7d8694…
07-06 21:22:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	235	22¢	$52	0xd8f5b4…
07-06 21:22:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	23	22¢	$5	0xb58fba…
07-06 21:22:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	3,546	22¢	$792	0xf3cbda…
07-06 21:22:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	400	22¢	$88	0x2ca396…
07-06 21:22:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x14b78a…
07-06 21:22:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	28	22¢	$6	0x0323f5…
07-06 21:21:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	83	32¢	$27	0xb2139b…
07-06 21:21:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x56bb24…
07-06 21:21:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x28fe57…
07-06 21:20:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x900bfc…
07-06 21:20:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	61	32¢	$19	0x548c0f…
07-06 21:20:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x790015…
07-06 21:20:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	52	32¢	$17	0x791c3f…
07-06 21:20:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4,458	27¢	$1,204	0xb6ffd3…
07-06 21:20:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0xcea12f…
07-06 21:20:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	120	27¢	$32	0x8d30f0…
07-06 21:20:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x6aaa5f…
07-06 21:20:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xcde2d3…
07-06 21:20:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	836	27¢	$226	0x2df5e8…
07-06 21:20:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x0bc4b5…
07-06 20:58:31	will the announcers say ronaldo during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348907	No	BUY	3,000	25¢	$763	0x4ffb59…
07-06 20:20:34	will the announcers say nfl during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348892	No	BUY	41	47¢	$19	0xc872aa…
07-05 04:16:25	will trump say mount rushmore during tribute to america rally 20260630160620566	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$20	0x119e6d…
07-05 03:56:32	will trump say benjamin or franklin during tribute to america rally 20260630160620576	No	SELL	333	100¢	$332	0x088b7b…
07-05 03:46:40	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	Yes	BUY	80	0¢	$0	0x69dac6…
07-05 03:46:35	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb0c341…
07-05 03:46:31	will trump say mount rushmore during tribute to america rally 20260630160620566	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x6cfb25…
07-05 03:38:34	will trump say mount rushmore during tribute to america rally 20260630160620566	Yes	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0xe0bc2a…
07-05 03:16:37	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	SELL	733	100¢	$732	0xa0a966…
07-05 03:16:32	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0xaf5409…
07-05 02:51:34	will trump say moon during tribute to america rally 20260630160620561	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x6d163e…
07-05 02:51:19	will trump say moon during tribute to america rally 20260630160620561	No	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xb0d67a…
07-05 02:51:19	will trump say moon during tribute to america rally 20260630160620561	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x824dcd…
07-05 02:51:19	will trump say moon during tribute to america rally 20260630160620561	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x4fc25d…
07-05 02:05:11	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0x2e4a6d…
07-05 02:01:37	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x2e6b55…
07-05 01:39:56	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	BUY	76	87¢	$67	0x0aa85f…
07-05 01:30:46	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xec4c12…
07-05 01:30:32	will trump say benjamin or franklin during tribute to america rally 20260630160620576	No	SELL	200	72¢	$143	0xc2742c…
07-05 01:28:52	will trump say space force during tribute to america rally 20260630160620567	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xdbdf4f…
07-05 01:28:52	will trump say space force during tribute to america rally 20260630160620567	No	BUY	727	48¢	$352	0x952146…
07-05 01:28:13	will trumps remarks not air 20260630160620582 476 169	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xa91177…
07-05 00:50:37	will trump say benjamin or franklin during tribute to america rally 20260630160620576	Yes	BUY	52	34¢	$18	0x871484…