Flawed-Enemy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

17.0%

Resolved

Trades

192

lifetime

Volume

$1.68K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 05-05 23:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

71% — —

Crypto

22% 40% $-10

Other

7% 0% $-6

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	18	$342	125,117	112,117	+13,000	open	—	04-28 22:15
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	12	$248	10,445	10,445	+0	open	—	04-15 17:15
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	8	$109	1,927	1,927	+0	open	—	04-18 19:02
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	5	$99	4,083	4,083	+0	open	—	04-14 21:03
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 14 2026	2	$87	4,632	4,632	+0	open	—	04-14 16:19
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	3	$66	66,060	0	+66,060	open	—	04-19 00:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$62	1,399	1,399	+0	open	—	04-15 12:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	4	$39	40	39	+1	open	—	04-25 04:24
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	7	$32	196	0	+196	open	—	04-28 22:13
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	4	$30	164	164	+0	open	—	04-18 19:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	4	$29	259	1,528	-1,269	open	—	04-26 14:44
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$27	272	0	+272	open	—	04-26 13:58
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	6	$20	130	0	+130	open	—	04-27 03:43
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	6	$19	34	12	+21	open	—	04-28 22:22
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	2	$19	48	48	+0	open	—	04-14 18:38
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	1	$19	18,810	0	+18,810	open	—	04-15 17:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	2	$19	125	125	+0	open	—	04-14 23:34
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	4	$18	90	90	+0	open	—	04-18 19:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$18	111	111	+0	open	—	05-05 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	1	$17	44	0	+44	open	—	04-25 04:25
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	2	$17	62	62	+0	open	—	04-18 19:28
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$17	25	25	+0	open	—	04-25 04:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$16	225	225	+0	open	—	04-18 13:56
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	5	$16	57	0	+57	open	—	04-27 03:34
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	4	$15	112	0	+112	Up	$-15	05-05 23:13
atp sharipo uchiyam 2026 04 13	2	$15	44	43	+1	open	—	04-14 06:18
btc updown 5m 1776145500	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	04-14 05:50
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?	2	$13	347	347	+0	open	—	04-18 18:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026?	2	$13	231	231	+0	No	$-6	05-05 01:41
bitcoin above 78k on april 14	2	$11	899	835	+64	open	—	04-14 11:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 23:13:18	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	38	11¢	$4	0xa1e4bc…
05-05 23:12:50	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x82ddba…
05-05 23:12:36	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	14¢	$3	0xaaa54d…
05-05 23:12:02	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	37	16¢	$6	0x8471a6…
05-05 23:08:04	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0x9042ba…
05-05 23:05:00	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x2b45e6…
05-05 23:04:38	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x0476b8…
05-05 23:03:54	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd198b8…
05-05 23:02:44	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x592acb…
05-05 15:11:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0xffc6a1…
05-05 01:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x6ff9cc…
05-05 01:41:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	SELL	231	1¢	$3	0xa24adb…
05-05 01:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	57	11¢	$6	0x006485…
05-04 23:11:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x902f06…
05-04 22:58:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	231	4¢	$9	0x7a9499…
05-04 22:50:48	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x2c35b2…
05-04 22:50:34	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xa8484f…
05-04 21:50:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	55	3¢	$2	0xf47f26…
05-04 21:50:40	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	6¢	$2	0x7b6d82…
05-04 21:50:28	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0xb72841…
05-04 16:47:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x886432…
05-04 16:40:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	49	3¢	$2	0x71f892…
05-04 16:37:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	128	3¢	$4	0x0aa511…
05-04 16:36:52	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	9¢	$3	0x442672…
05-04 16:36:26	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	Yes	BUY	35	10¢	$4	0x5dbc14…
04-28 22:27:04	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0x3605e7…
04-28 22:22:42	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xbc2bed…
04-28 22:22:26	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0xd703ea…
04-28 22:21:04	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x822fe2…
04-28 22:20:54	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x931b03…
04-28 22:20:18	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x04af89…
04-28 22:20:12	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6cb02e…
04-28 22:17:08	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xc65230…
04-28 22:15:20	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	3,986	0¢	$8	0xecfa08…
04-28 22:13:46	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	65	9¢	$6	0x464705…
04-28 22:13:28	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	37	19¢	$7	0x9efad0…
04-28 22:12:56	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xcfbbbb…
04-28 22:11:02	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x957ae5…
04-28 22:10:50	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xa409ba…
04-28 22:10:44	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x27d01d…
04-28 22:10:28	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0x18ac09…
04-28 22:09:40	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,750	0¢	$5	0x54ed46…
04-28 22:07:48	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	20,121	0¢	$40	0xed3fd6…
04-28 18:54:18	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	22,357	0¢	$67	0xc089ce…
04-27 03:43:22	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	62	7¢	$4	0x4e687a…
04-27 03:43:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xec9d56…
04-27 03:42:34	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x21ab86…
04-27 03:42:22	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x3bab4d…
04-27 03:41:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0xe7d68e…
04-27 03:41:10	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xa1fa29…
04-27 03:37:54	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x728218…
04-27 03:36:36	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0xfa5c87…
04-27 03:34:04	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0c2d7f…
04-27 03:33:14	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x759a97…
04-27 03:32:44	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x1c1c57…
04-27 03:32:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x2e068a…
04-27 03:31:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xcc8f4a…
04-27 03:29:14	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x6100ca…
04-27 03:28:46	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x7ab9bb…
04-27 03:23:24	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x17956c…
04-27 03:23:08	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xad7857…
04-27 03:22:52	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x0f9fd7…
04-27 03:22:40	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb6ec71…
04-27 03:20:00	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0xf185b2…
04-27 03:19:14	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf9d0d6…
04-27 03:18:34	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x205b02…
04-27 03:18:08	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xbcf20e…
04-27 03:17:52	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x226970…
04-27 03:13:32	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x4c1415…
04-27 03:06:48	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0xd29cd4…
04-27 02:49:54	Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	96	1¢	$1	0xa0d37d…
04-27 02:49:46	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	258	1¢	$2	0x7182e5…
04-27 02:44:42	Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0x726d48…
04-27 02:42:12	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfc4a96…
04-27 02:41:18	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	158	1¢	$2	0x874cb4…
04-27 02:38:08	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5,588	0¢	$6	0x289cb7…
04-26 23:48:32	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2,055	0¢	$4	0x3e1f31…
04-26 23:48:10	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	196	1¢	$2	0xefdf7c…
04-26 23:48:06	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	147	1¢	$2	0xa7f7a3…
04-26 23:48:00	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	152	0¢	$1	0x46266f…
04-26 22:02:26	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	196	1¢	$3	0x580c38…
04-26 22:00:52	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	147	2¢	$3	0xb9ac39…
04-26 21:59:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,520	0¢	$3	0xe98cf7…
04-26 21:54:28	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	152	1¢	$2	0x097c3b…
04-26 21:53:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	2,012	0¢	$2	0xedf49f…
04-26 21:46:00	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	4,025	0¢	$8	0xe5e56f…
04-26 15:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe476ac…
04-26 15:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8da8f8…
04-26 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x111c84…
04-26 15:06:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x12968f…
04-26 15:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0x02945d…
04-26 14:58:16	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x4476ba…
04-26 14:56:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x64d8f8…
04-26 14:54:08	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	495	0¢	$1	0x333d4b…
04-26 14:46:38	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	229	2¢	$5	0xe11a2d…
04-26 14:44:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	8,125	0¢	$8	0xbc4025…
04-26 14:44:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	366	2¢	$6	0x80a3ab…
04-26 14:19:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	259	2¢	$5	0x4be0e1…
04-26 14:19:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xe9f618…
04-26 14:19:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	604	2¢	$10	0xe592c6…