Realized P&L
+$8
Unrealized P&L
-$171
Hit rate
85.5%
Resolved
16
Trades
4,272
lifetime
Volume
$94.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$1.24K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-05
last 07-20 18:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 9 days
Categories
Politics
67% 67% +$5
Other
28% 100% +$2
Tech
3%
Crypto
1%
Sports
1% 100% +$1
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -9,830 $-359 $-369 $-10 07-15 21:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -1,218 $-185 26¢ $-323 $-137 07-06 17:03
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No +200 $138 56¢ $112 $-26 07-08 03:13
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No +200 $114 54¢ $107 $-7 07-08 13:25
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +200 $100 46¢ $91 $-9 07-08 07:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -174 $-35 14¢ $-24 +$11 07-20 14:57
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No -100 $-33 24¢ $-24 +$10 05-28 16:22
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No -20 $-20 99¢ $-20 $-0 06-21 00:29
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? No -20 $-18 97¢ $-19 $-1 06-30 04:52
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season? No -20 $-20 96¢ $-19 +$0 06-20 15:59
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No -20 $-19 96¢ $-19 +$0 06-20 23:56
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-24 06:59
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No -10 $-10 98¢ $-10 $-0 07-08 06:36
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -10 $-9 97¢ $-10 $-0 06-24 14:03
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? No -10 $-10 97¢ $-10 $-0 07-01 01:11
Obama divorce before 2027? No -10 $-9 96¢ $-10 $-0 06-15 08:43
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -10 $-10 96¢ $-10 $-0 06-24 14:03
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -10 $-10 96¢ $-10 +$0 07-11 02:31
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday -10 $-9 94¢ $-9 $-0 07-16 05:41
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? No -10 $-9 92¢ $-9 $-0 07-07 19:44
Megan Thee Stallion and Klay Thompson engaged in 2026? No +10 $9 65¢ $7 $-3 05-29 14:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +6 $6 95¢ $6 +$0 05-28 20:29
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? No -5 $-5 94¢ $-5 +$0 07-08 06:30
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 87¢ $4 +$1 05-28 22:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +5 $4 78¢ $4 $-0 05-28 23:12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +5 $1 22¢ $1 +$0 07-15 12:00