Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$429

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

48.8%

Resolved

1,213

Trades

8,554

lifetime

Volume

$43.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$31

9 positions

First seen

2026-08-25

last 10-29 07:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

74% 37% -$300

Tech

13% 29% -$169

Politics

10% 53% +$126

Sports

3% 52% -$6

Crypto

0% 17% -$81

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 378 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	-12	-$9	98¢	$-12	-$3	10-23 22:25
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	+8	$7	95¢	$7	+$0	10-28 23:00
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+12	$8	53¢	$7	-$1	10-27 09:14
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	No	+50	$4	6¢	$3	-$2	10-27 07:45
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+12	$3	12¢	$1	-$1	10-21 13:52
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	+5	$1	24¢	$1	$0	10-28 11:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	+9	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-21 12:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	-16	-$8	1¢	$-0	+$8	10-12 10:03
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$1	3¢	$0	+$1	10-27 08:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	68	$452	494	494	+0	open	—	10-29 01:39
will wti dip to 95 in october 2026 from october 15	56	$356	522	522	+0	open	—	10-28 22:36
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	49	$288	490	490	+0	open	—	10-28 19:40
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	47	$233	346	346	+0	No	-$2	10-22 13:49
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	42	$208	401	401	+0	open	—	10-27 18:24
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	33	$203	2,360	360	+2,000	Yes	+$30	10-13 16:15
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	37	$200	321	321	+0	No	+$19	10-21 17:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	28	$184	481	281	+200	Yes	-$4	10-20 08:30
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	37	$182	200	185	+16	open	—	10-18 06:12
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	35	$179	297	297	+0	No	+$2	10-21 18:43
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	26	$173	220	220	+0	open	—	10-20 06:47
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	29	$172	264	264	+0	open	—	10-29 06:40
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	25	$163	195	195	+0	open	—	10-28 14:41
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	30	$163	172	172	+0	open	—	10-24 03:21
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	29	$160	242	242	+0	Yes	-$5	10-23 16:32
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	23	$150	192	192	+0	open	—	10-27 00:21
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	25	$150	185	185	+0	No	-$2	08-29 14:28
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	37	$139	216	216	+0	open	—	10-28 09:34
will iran target an arab country by october 22 2026 20261015	17	$139	327	327	+0	Yes	+$37	10-21 01:29
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	31	$135	254	254	+0	open	—	10-28 20:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	18	$134	407	207	+200	Yes	+$14	10-13 20:21
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	29	$128	149	149	+0	open	—	10-15 21:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	22	$127	156	160	-3	open	—	10-23 22:25
will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1440 by june 30 2027	19	$121	195	195	+0	No	-$1	10-23 05:43
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	18	$120	125	125	+0	open	—	10-16 06:31
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	24	$118	162	162	+0	open	—	10-13 15:10
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	20	$118	132	132	+0	open	—	10-22 09:05
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	21	$115	213	170	+44	Yes	-$6	10-12 14:48
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	20	$113	154	154	+0	open	—	10-28 23:36
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	18	$111	181	181	+0	open	—	10-27 08:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 08:23:14	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 30?	No	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x65c1da…
10-29 08:11:16	Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x872785…
10-29 08:07:25	Lakers vs. Warriors	Warriors	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0x7d0744…
10-29 08:07:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x334551…
10-29 08:06:59	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0xa6a71b…
10-29 08:06:46	Lakers vs. Warriors	Warriors	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0xdf0d0a…
10-29 08:06:44	Lakers vs. Warriors	Warriors	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0xd4234c…
10-29 08:03:10	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	120	2¢	$2	0x13e314…
10-29 08:00:46	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xb648ec…
10-29 08:00:46	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0xa24e7e…
10-29 08:00:46	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0x493136…
10-29 07:59:25	Lakers vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x8f072d…
10-29 07:40:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0xff4ad0…
10-29 07:36:41	Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	27¢	$4	0xa8977a…
10-29 07:21:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0xd244d0…
10-29 07:21:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x14d1f6…
10-29 07:21:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x8e951b…
10-29 07:21:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x58ee8d…
10-29 07:21:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x487996…
10-29 07:21:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x06730d…
10-29 07:21:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0xf5e7f9…
10-29 07:21:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0x2c5fb6…
10-29 07:20:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xe70f77…
10-29 07:20:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x8e3ab9…
10-29 07:19:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xa86d9e…
10-29 07:15:35	Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0x37d89c…
10-29 07:13:05	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 5.5 million?	Yes	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0xae6418…
10-29 07:08:14	Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	22¢	$4	0x2b8414…
10-29 07:06:40	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xe18f71…
10-29 06:40:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	SELL	22	34¢	$7	0x5047a6…
10-29 06:40:05	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	SELL	15	36¢	$6	0xeee5ce…
10-29 06:38:16	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xaaa811…
10-29 06:30:28	Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xfd028c…
10-29 06:21:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	61	4¢	$2	0xbed1ab…
10-29 06:21:35	Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x5cc15b…
10-29 06:06:53	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0x774989…
10-29 06:06:35	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x0bd7f1…
10-29 06:06:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	19	46¢	$9	0xb42872…
10-29 06:02:32	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x0dd577…
10-29 05:58:16	Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x3e54b1…
10-29 05:56:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x66e9e0…
10-29 05:55:46	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xdf8505…
10-29 05:52:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x3950b4…
10-29 05:21:32	MIT Engineers vs. Harvard Crimson	MIT Engineers	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xcd13c8…
10-29 05:21:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	47¢	$10	0x7908b6…
10-29 05:18:05	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0xe1cecb…
10-29 05:06:32	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-29?	No	SELL	13	64¢	$9	0xc5c98e…
10-29 05:01:34	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0xa7f8c3…
10-29 04:47:34	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0x0effac…
10-29 04:41:56	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x5006af…
10-29 04:41:29	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x3696c1…
10-29 04:36:29	Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x1cd619…
10-29 04:36:28	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$3	0xe42078…
10-29 04:36:28	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0x1cd6c9…
10-29 04:06:52	VU of Lynchburg Dragons vs. VMI Keydets	VU of Lynchburg Dragons	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x08f219…
10-29 03:59:11	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x2bfc3f…
10-29 03:54:07	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0x6c03ad…
10-29 03:45:25	Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	No	SELL	58	5¢	$3	0x56f614…
10-29 03:45:01	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xf23ed2…
10-29 03:45:01	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	60	1¢	$1	0x3ffe87…
10-29 03:40:32	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x492bcc…
10-29 03:40:32	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$7	0x10397d…
10-29 03:40:25	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	0	72¢	$0	0xfe5ca6…
10-29 03:28:31	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1550 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xb47b45…
10-29 03:22:10	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x4b2a93…
10-29 03:13:19	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0xf1acff…
10-29 03:01:37	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x0ed6cf…
10-29 03:01:26	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	168	1¢	$2	0xae0edd…
10-29 03:01:26	Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x18c1d1…
10-29 02:57:11	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in October?	Yes	SELL	52	14¢	$7	0x02d9fc…
10-29 02:41:02	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x1bc3dd…
10-29 02:41:01	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0x652eb8…
10-29 02:41:01	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0x412ed8…
10-29 02:39:37	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	70	5¢	$4	0xafba70…
10-29 02:32:23	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0xde1d42…
10-29 02:31:56	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in October?	Yes	BUY	52	11¢	$6	0xb6bde8…
10-29 02:25:05	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xda616b…
10-29 02:16:29	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0x85352f…
10-29 02:13:49	Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x15d4f6…
10-29 02:08:23	Elms College Blazers vs. Yale Bulldogs (W)	Elms College Blazers	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x967e0a…
10-29 02:07:29	Lakers vs. Warriors	Lakers	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x9d680a…
10-29 02:06:44	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	SELL	9	82¢	$8	0x4f38d2…
10-29 01:55:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	No	SELL	22	48¢	$11	0x5b8904…
10-29 01:53:49	Lakers vs. Warriors	Lakers	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x5a42a3…
10-29 01:53:41	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0xf5c8d9…
10-29 01:40:07	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x2a91cc…
10-29 01:39:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x6d3f55…
10-29 01:36:58	Will Águilas FC win on 2026-10-29?	No	SELL	11	69¢	$8	0xaca137…
10-29 01:36:32	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	Yes	SELL	37	21¢	$8	0x0a20e5…
10-29 01:35:41	Will Águilas FC win on 2026-10-29?	No	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x731ef5…
10-29 01:35:37	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	Yes	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xc6cac2…
10-29 01:17:05	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	Yes	BUY	47	15¢	$7	0x02f06e…
10-29 01:16:35	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0xccbf5e…
10-29 01:14:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x5f4ba4…
10-29 01:14:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x53afad…
10-29 01:11:56	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in October?	Yes	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x988a64…
10-29 01:11:46	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0x6a3373…
10-29 01:07:43	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$13	0x562816…
10-29 01:06:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xef3fc6…
10-29 01:00:05	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0xb3ae38…