Elastic-Horse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$207

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

43.2%

Resolved

227

Trades

683

lifetime

Volume

$1.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 07-01 03:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

56% 33% -$133

Politics

28% 29% -$42

Sports

16% 48% -$32

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% 50% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-01).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	-3	-$2	87¢	$-2	$0	05-07 09:29
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+5	$1	13¢	$1	$0	06-24 12:36
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+17	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-10 10:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	16	$40	43	43	+0	No	-$1	06-30 07:59
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	12	$25	68	68	+0	No	-$4	06-21 17:53
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	9	$24	32	32	+0	Yes	+$2	06-20 09:42
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	4	$24	20	15	+5	Joao Fonseca	+$6	06-01 03:13
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	4	$23	20	15	+5	Marta Kostyuk	+$7	05-31 13:49
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner	2	$18	15	15	+0	Team WE	+$11	05-30 13:48
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	7	$18	22	22	+0	Yes	+$7	06-19 17:06
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$18	56	56	-0	Yes	+$6	06-04 03:56
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	9	$17	34	34	+0	Yes	+$3	06-23 20:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$17	70	70	+0	Yes	-$3	06-13 05:34
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)	3	$16	10	10	+0	Minnesota Twins	+$4	06-03 02:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	9	$15	86	71	+15	No	-$2	06-04 20:09
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta	7	$15	30	12	+19	Rafael Jodar	-$4	05-31 14:55
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	3	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$5	06-01 03:13
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	3	$15	9	9	+0	San Francisco Giants	+$4	06-01 03:13
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	6	$14	16	16	+0	open	—	06-30 07:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	3	$14	10	10	+0	No	+$2	06-09 16:18
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	3	$13	25	25	+0	Yes	+$2	06-30 07:59
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	3	$13	8	8	+0	Yes	+$1	06-16 10:46
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	7	$13	18	18	+0	Yes	-$3	06-19 13:41
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	5	$12	24	5	+19	Yes	-$5	06-13 02:37
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	3	$12	9	9	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 02:37
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	2	$12	10	10	+0	No	+$7	06-30 07:59
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	5	$12	22	5	+17	GamerLegion	-$7	06-02 13:48
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	3	$12	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-09 14:42
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	3	$12	9	9	+0	Top Esports	+$0	06-03 02:17
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	4	$12	20	0	+20	LOS	-$4	05-30 19:09
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	4	$12	6	6	+0	Under	$0	06-03 02:17
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians	3	$12	8	8	+0	Boston Red Sox	+$5	06-01 03:13
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	5	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	06-30 07:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 03:51:35	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xd2e654…
06-30 08:17:20	will disclosure day be nominated for best picture at the 99th academy awards	No	SELL	3	75¢	$3	0xcb76d1…
06-30 08:00:25	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x21bb65…
06-30 08:00:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5d1b52…
06-30 08:00:19	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x420a5c…
06-30 08:00:16	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x6534bf…
06-30 08:00:11	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x468d2e…
06-30 08:00:10	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x7aa7d5…
06-30 08:00:07	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x62461d…
06-30 08:00:04	will disclosure day be nominated for best picture at the 99th academy awards	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xadfbe7…
06-30 07:59:59	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xa6db2a…
06-30 07:59:58	will the philippine senate convict sara duterte	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x511c59…
06-30 07:59:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd758f2…
06-30 07:59:53	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xc6556a…
06-30 07:59:50	Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x3ed80b…
06-30 07:59:47	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x884aa2…
06-30 07:59:41	Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x16cdb4…
06-30 07:59:38	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x8171bb…
06-30 07:59:35	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	SELL	14	26¢	$4	0xeda65e…
06-30 07:59:28	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	53¢	$8	0x18bd51…
06-30 07:59:23	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xfe192d…
06-30 07:59:17	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	SELL	25	31¢	$8	0x291262…
06-30 07:59:13	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0x1944fb…
06-30 07:59:10	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	51	9¢	$5	0xa2f06f…
06-29 13:05:14	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xf00250…
06-24 12:36:13	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x309603…
06-24 10:23:46	Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb51bc1…
06-24 09:27:13	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa30e22…
06-24 09:01:58	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x69ceff…
06-24 08:23:41	will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xf0e3ed…
06-23 21:43:49	Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x134e3e…
06-23 21:17:25	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x93c871…
06-23 20:08:10	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x8aaaef…
06-23 19:55:35	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0xd46479…
06-23 19:30:35	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x12d414…
06-23 19:05:41	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x88f665…
06-23 18:41:23	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0xa4d77d…
06-23 18:41:17	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	15	31¢	$5	0x0fda1b…
06-23 15:55:50	Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	No	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0x25923e…
06-23 15:40:26	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xbac60e…
06-23 13:33:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$2	0xe0fac4…
06-23 01:01:53	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x93eeb9…
06-23 00:37:01	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xb6d742…
06-23 00:36:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x997677…
06-23 00:25:28	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x24b9da…
06-23 00:01:16	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x275ce5…
06-22 23:49:04	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x8461d4…
06-22 22:15:52	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x31868d…
06-22 22:06:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x29abdf…
06-22 10:49:08	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x7e6b3d…
06-21 22:08:46	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x252a57…
06-21 21:56:46	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x22a986…
06-21 21:33:49	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x25386f…
06-21 17:53:23	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x017431…
06-21 17:41:16	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xd863dd…
06-21 17:28:55	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x691fb6…
06-21 04:59:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0xf612bc…
06-21 04:47:49	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x33b995…
06-21 04:47:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x667a3e…
06-21 02:40:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x710ff4…
06-21 02:28:58	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x5fe6fe…
06-21 01:30:59	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x09870d…
06-20 20:56:07	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x3ff2bb…
06-20 14:52:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x0fd175…
06-20 14:02:41	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x89ab99…
06-20 13:25:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x228634…
06-20 09:42:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xc1d7fe…
06-20 09:27:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x0c8ce3…
06-20 05:16:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x668293…
06-20 00:46:52	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8c585f…
06-19 21:30:53	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xac0738…
06-19 21:17:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x99ce4a…
06-19 21:05:10	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb7c02b…
06-19 20:40:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd624b5…
06-19 19:15:28	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x0438b7…
06-19 18:14:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xf07516…
06-19 18:02:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xa8d33f…
06-19 17:47:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x2c6b12…
06-19 17:34:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xa57937…
06-19 17:34:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0827cc…
06-19 17:34:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x84783f…
06-19 17:06:11	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xf15c84…
06-19 16:55:13	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x8aa256…
06-19 14:52:52	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xe8b3d0…
06-19 14:04:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xdc3b40…
06-19 13:41:14	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x7c3373…
06-19 13:17:32	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x48d980…
06-19 11:55:07	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x836b3e…
06-19 10:11:43	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xa09ee6…
06-19 09:33:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0xa3f985…
06-19 07:24:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc291eb…
06-19 07:24:31	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xab5d6b…
06-19 07:01:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8b0dd5…
06-19 03:50:20	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x0a8554…
06-19 03:35:49	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x37a83e…
06-19 03:35:44	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x030b83…
06-19 03:24:40	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	39	6¢	$2	0xdc10fe…
06-19 03:24:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x81db4f…
06-19 02:28:32	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x28d756…
06-19 02:18:08	Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x8e6d43…