Stable-Administration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.91K

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

7,178

Trades

32,263

lifetime

Volume

$171.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$551

25 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 06:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 242 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 63% -$2,500

Other

18% 52% -$192

Politics

11% 48% -$141

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% 0% -$81

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 316 trades/day

Open positions (25) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes		+397	$236	82¢	$324	+$88	09-23 10:56
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		+397	$165	18¢	$73	-$93	09-29 18:47
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes		+100	$29	28¢	$28	-$1	10-27 06:15
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes		+31	$14	71¢	$22	+$9	10-08 14:36
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No		+31	$12	55¢	$17	+$4	10-06 16:04
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No		+31	$18	46¢	$14	-$3	10-08 08:22
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No		+20	$15	65¢	$13	-$2	10-06 20:06
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	No		+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	10-06 18:01
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	No		+31	$18	29¢	$9	-$9	10-08 14:31
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No		+20	$5	36¢	$7	+$2	10-07 06:41
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No		+5	$3	100¢	$5	+$2	10-07 17:52
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No		+5	$3	89¢	$5	+$1	10-05 18:57
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No		+5	$1	83¢	$4	+$3	10-07 12:48
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No		+5	$3	72¢	$4	+$1	10-07 14:33
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No		+5	$4	72¢	$4	$0	10-11 00:46
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No		+5	$2	62¢	$3	+$1	10-08 19:59
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	No	—	+5	$3	55¢	$3	$0	10-05 18:44
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No		+5	$3	37¢	$2	-$1	10-08 04:51
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No		+5	$2	28¢	$1	-$1	10-07 14:02
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No		+5	$1	28¢	$1	+$0	10-05 22:25
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No		+5	$4	18¢	$1	-$3	10-07 08:49
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No		+5	$2	12¢	$1	-$1	10-06 02:36
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No		+15	$6	4¢	$1	-$5	10-07 10:24
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No		+5	$2	10¢	$0	-$2	10-08 01:32
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes		-5	-$1	2¢	$-0	+$1	10-15 14:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	15	$2.5K	1,990	1,980	+10	Yes	-$6	10-21 21:30
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	77	$2.1K	4,557	4,557	+0	Mbappé	-$131	10-26 22:13
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	41	$2.0K	2,049	2,049	+0	open	—	10-25 10:56
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	20	$1.9K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	10-23 11:23
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	9	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-24 06:32
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	21	$1.5K	1,611	1,611	+0	open	—	10-11 13:56
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	20	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-26 19:51
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	3	$1.3K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	10-20 23:34
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	17	$1.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	10-25 17:41
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	14	$1.2K	1,044	1,044	+0	open	—	10-21 19:55
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	14	$1.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$139	10-23 23:22
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	14	$1.1K	670	670	+0	open	—	10-26 21:20
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	10	$1.1K	807	807	+0	open	—	10-25 23:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$989	642	642	+0	open	—	10-12 15:53
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	10	$935	695	690	+5	open	—	10-22 02:50
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	15	$924	700	700	+0	open	—	10-22 10:00
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	17	$907	700	700	+0	open	—	10-27 07:15
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	9	$779	581	581	+0	open	—	10-26 16:26
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	11	$761	1,034	1,034	+0	open	—	10-19 00:36
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	10	$730	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	10-26 22:59
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	6	$715	448	448	+0	open	—	10-25 15:16
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	19	$680	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-24 12:19
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	3	$651	440	440	+0	open	—	10-21 23:29
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	8	$646	621	621	+0	open	—	10-13 13:17
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	5	$646	632	632	+0	open	—	10-12 14:34
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?	13	$622	464	464	+0	open	—	10-23 03:16
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	5	$621	395	395	+0	open	—	10-24 05:31
iran oman hormuz agreement by december 31	10	$613	949	949	-0	open	—	10-15 00:29
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	9	$599	405	405	+0	open	—	10-13 14:12
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	15	$580	524	524	+0	open	—	10-26 01:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:15:36	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	190	47¢	$89	0xd53a9b…
10-27 07:15:36	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	49	47¢	$23	0x6d51e6…
10-27 06:59:14	Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x67cb9a…
10-27 06:57:21	Will Junts win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x939ebe…
10-27 06:56:53	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x13963d…
10-27 06:55:39	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	17	41¢	$7	0x3f4e51…
10-27 06:55:38	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	43	41¢	$18	0x858b33…
10-27 06:53:24	Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	51¢	$8	0x8f0d8e…
10-27 06:53:08	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	36¢	$9	0x9cc26c…
10-27 06:52:02	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xef9076…
10-27 06:46:35	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0x84f00d…
10-27 06:46:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x2ca5cc…
10-27 06:45:32	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x2bbdd5…
10-27 06:40:36	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.5 million?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x7ff2c8…
10-27 06:35:54	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xa3f18c…
10-27 06:32:02	Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xca3164…
10-27 06:29:12	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	67	20¢	$13	0x974617…
10-27 06:28:14	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	33	26¢	$9	0x78f5bd…
10-27 06:28:11	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x7f150a…
10-27 06:26:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x25536f…
10-27 06:25:14	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x01b9c9…
10-27 06:23:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x2f2971…
10-27 06:22:05	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0xdf4b5a…
10-27 06:20:32	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Yes	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0xa5058e…
10-27 06:20:09	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Yes	BUY	35	21¢	$7	0x633568…
10-27 06:19:41	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x31f2d3…
10-27 06:15:15	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x4cbec8…
10-27 06:14:30	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x86669c…
10-27 06:13:51	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x94630f…
10-27 06:13:48	Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xb17f34…
10-27 06:12:41	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xb01d78…
10-27 06:11:06	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x5635d6…
10-27 05:57:35	Will Alex de Minaur Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xb89f2b…
10-27 05:53:30	Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x51e1e9…
10-27 05:52:50	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	200	70¢	$141	0xfb47e0…
10-27 05:44:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x5a7060…
10-27 05:42:54	Will two or more regions tie for the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$9	0x697bef…
10-27 05:42:36	Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in efficiency (EFF) per game in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xa5af4c…
10-27 05:42:24	Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xe6d5c2…
10-27 05:42:00	Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x20eeb5…
10-27 05:42:00	Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x198950…
10-27 05:41:42	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xfe4497…
10-27 05:40:44	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xd3816c…
10-27 05:35:54	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	78	7¢	$6	0x0fdb98…
10-27 05:20:56	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xb418cb…
10-27 05:17:26	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	239	50¢	$121	0x137591…
10-27 04:32:45	Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	14¢	$14	0xbcccb8…
10-27 04:26:17	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x921094…
10-27 04:26:15	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	49	49¢	$24	0x7757b5…
10-27 04:23:21	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 170,000 and 190,000?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xaca547…
10-27 03:36:12	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x1a18a3…
10-27 03:34:59	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 170,000 and 190,000?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xc7cd77…
10-27 03:34:26	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0xa6ec62…
10-27 03:34:11	Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf83933…
10-27 03:29:15	Will Junts win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0xe9d62b…
10-27 03:26:50	Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x78896d…
10-27 03:25:03	Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x4d4a40…
10-27 02:37:08	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xc031a0…
10-27 02:33:45	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x6eac00…
10-27 02:30:51	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x2e5c94…
10-27 02:04:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0xce351e…
10-27 01:57:11	Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xd6dc50…
10-27 01:57:02	Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x7184f9…
10-27 01:56:15	Will GTE launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xe10ff4…
10-27 01:55:29	Will GTE launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xb5cbcd…
10-27 01:46:42	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0x273286…
10-27 01:43:42	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	25	18¢	$5	0xd030d1…
10-27 01:43:36	Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	43	34¢	$15	0x796f42…
10-27 01:40:57	Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x49e426…
10-27 01:40:51	Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x34354e…
10-27 01:40:50	Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb1ab23…
10-27 01:39:00	Will Brock Bowers be the highest-scoring TE of the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x5335b3…
10-27 01:35:54	Will Brock Bowers be the highest-scoring TE of the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x32125b…
10-27 01:35:06	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	19	23¢	$4	0xf259b5…
10-27 01:32:11	Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0x4f815c…
10-27 01:30:24	Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	46	67¢	$31	0x69c734…
10-27 01:30:18	Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x71544b…
10-27 01:30:11	Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x58c852…
10-27 01:26:29	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x155da4…
10-27 01:25:32	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3e4cd4…
10-27 01:21:41	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xd81c72…
10-27 00:43:03	Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	93	45¢	$42	0x5b6ccf…
10-27 00:38:03	Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0xf2d380…
10-27 00:33:36	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0xc64b08…
10-27 00:30:41	Will Joe Burrow finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?	Yes	SELL	19	18¢	$3	0x3e53af…
10-27 00:29:08	Will Joe Burrow finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xa51937…
10-27 00:28:57	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xbec25a…
10-27 00:28:05	Will Joe Burrow finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x353380…
10-27 00:24:44	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x744246…
10-27 00:24:20	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x3c1161…
10-27 00:10:05	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0xf9fb8a…
10-27 00:08:03	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x2364b3…
10-27 00:07:06	Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	81	62¢	$50	0xddbe84…
10-27 00:05:48	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	75	67¢	$50	0x55f4a8…
10-26 23:29:33	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xbcdefc…
10-26 23:28:23	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	70¢	$19	0xc963b8…
10-26 23:28:18	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	70	75¢	$52	0x9cea61…
10-26 23:10:06	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$12	0xa8b73b…
10-26 23:06:36	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x3f1d5f…
10-26 23:06:08	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x6bfa23…