Key-Vermicelli — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$170

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

95.7%

Resolved

720

Trades

780

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$157

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-08 14:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 242 days

Categories

Other

75% 87% -$211

Crypto

24% 94% +$2

Politics

0% 86% +$1

Sports

0% 100% +$38

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+36	$30	92¢	$33	+$3	06-07 03:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+21	$20	100¢	$21	+$1	05-30 12:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+21	$20	99¢	$21	+$1	05-30 12:55
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	+20	$20	99¢	$20	$0	11-08 14:23
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	+20	$20	98¢	$20	$0	11-08 14:23
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	+20	$20	98¢	$20	$0	11-08 14:23
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	+10	$10	99¢	$10	$0	11-08 14:24
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+91	$10	8¢	$8	-$2	10-26 13:51
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	+4	$4	99¢	$4	$0	11-08 14:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	3	$140	70	70	+0	No	+$0	06-14 03:26
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$85	86	0	+86	No	+$1	05-21 15:11
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 380 399	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	04-07 14:43
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 440 459	2	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	04-04 03:09
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	3	$70	71	0	+71	No	+$1	06-03 10:41
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	3	$70	71	0	+71	No	+$1	05-06 13:57
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$70	71	0	+71	No	+$1	05-04 11:38
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$70	71	0	+71	No	+$1	05-19 12:57
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	2	$60	61	0	+61	No	+$1	06-07 03:04
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	2	$60	61	0	+61	No	+$1	06-13 11:24
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$60	61	0	+61	No	+$1	04-26 12:41
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	1	$50	54	0	+54	No	-$50	06-15 09:58
bitcoin above 68k on march 28	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-28 13:07
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	04-02 15:33
bitcoin above 82k on february 1	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	02-01 12:58
bitcoin above 68k on march 5	1	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	03-05 12:35
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 340 359	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	04-07 14:42
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	05-16 14:07
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	07-04 16:03
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	05-07 12:51
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	04-29 13:45
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 180 199	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	04-01 13:51
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 580plus	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	02-11 12:56
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 380 399	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	02-25 13:50
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-28 13:08
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 480 499	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	02-01 12:59
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	04-26 12:41
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	04-26 12:40
bitcoin above 68k on april 9	1	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	04-09 13:54
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	04-29 13:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 14:24:09	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xca97aa…
11-08 14:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x041875…
11-08 14:23:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0ab023…
11-08 14:23:15	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x56a144…
11-08 14:23:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd6c83d…
11-03 14:05:49	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x144986…
11-03 14:05:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa4db90…
11-01 14:20:03	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb71244…
11-01 14:19:46	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6edb54…
11-01 14:19:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x7e5b9c…
10-28 13:14:56	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xa8c0cd…
10-28 13:14:35	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc06aa1…
10-27 14:58:50	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3359a3…
10-27 14:58:42	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe77caa…
10-26 13:51:59	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x360f4d…
10-26 13:51:35	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x32cd38…
10-26 13:51:26	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6b84be…
10-26 13:51:15	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc87a3b…
10-26 13:50:48	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x935e81…
10-23 11:23:15	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x84da36…
10-23 11:23:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x93740d…
10-22 04:53:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x51df77…
10-22 04:53:02	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x388727…
10-22 04:52:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb200fa…
10-19 13:39:05	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbb6b8d…
10-19 13:38:56	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0ad7b6…
10-19 13:38:33	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0e3d20…
10-14 14:03:20	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa6a3cd…
10-14 14:03:08	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xdec73a…
10-14 14:02:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb3e822…
10-12 14:20:00	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4334d6…
10-12 14:19:51	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbb914c…
10-10 12:09:43	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbac1b0…
10-10 12:09:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x88ffea…
10-08 12:55:00	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc2ab34…
10-08 12:54:53	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa8aa2a…
10-08 12:54:29	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0986d2…
10-08 12:53:56	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x75fefb…
10-04 02:29:13	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x66690d…
10-04 02:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x65aad4…
10-04 02:28:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf8f55d…
09-29 13:44:06	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x11f028…
09-27 13:00:17	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbbd782…
09-27 13:00:03	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x71fc78…
09-27 12:59:47	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xb3d3fc…
09-23 12:11:26	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x77e4cc…
09-23 12:11:01	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x8d33c5…
09-22 14:18:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x386b06…
09-22 14:18:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6c4d45…
09-21 13:01:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x51d73e…
09-21 13:00:53	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5a902f…
09-21 13:00:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xac1a10…
09-16 15:06:44	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7c9b52…
09-16 15:06:27	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc07909…
09-14 13:32:22	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x452f91…
09-14 13:32:12	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6da1c6…
09-14 13:31:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc030fe…
09-13 12:49:42	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9220e0…
09-13 12:49:30	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x8a8c70…
09-09 14:42:42	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7badcd…
09-09 14:42:33	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x8cfbdd…
09-07 13:19:31	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8a10ff…
09-07 13:18:07	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2df414…
09-03 11:45:45	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa1f4b5…
09-03 11:45:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x9bdc55…
09-03 11:45:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xa018e2…
09-03 11:44:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 3?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x401529…
08-30 12:50:39	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0314d5…
08-30 12:50:16	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x37f21f…
08-30 12:50:06	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2935e0…
08-27 12:13:06	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbc4916…
08-27 12:12:27	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x288258…
08-24 14:27:24	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x561547…
08-23 14:28:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb0fc52…
08-23 14:26:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xa025bf…
08-21 12:13:46	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x129684…
08-21 12:13:22	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3242cb…
08-21 12:11:51	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xeab5a6…
08-21 12:11:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4add50…
08-19 01:50:51	bitcoin above 66k on august 19 2026	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xac22db…
08-19 01:50:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3e403c…
08-19 01:50:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6ef265…
08-18 03:18:33	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x605b2e…
08-18 03:18:22	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc25202…
08-18 03:17:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x319e1b…
08-18 03:16:25	bitcoin above 66k on august 18 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7c90a3…
08-06 12:38:48	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x04d2c0…
08-06 12:38:35	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x90b63c…
08-05 11:35:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3697d6…
08-05 11:35:11	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x19957a…
08-05 11:34:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa40484…
08-04 11:52:54	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc06c3d…
08-04 11:52:06	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd3132a…
08-03 12:08:56	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xacd98d…
08-03 12:08:45	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf153c5…
08-02 12:55:02	bitcoin above 68k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf44d6e…
08-02 12:54:54	bitcoin above 66k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8bd7b4…
08-02 12:54:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf8f95b…
08-02 12:54:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9aca84…
07-31 14:21:33	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x4b4126…