Realized P&L
+$6.31K
Unrealized P&L
-$455
Hit rate
79.4%
Resolved
135
Trades
904
lifetime
Volume
$909.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.01K
Open exposure
$2.53K
5 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 07-16 20:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 55 days
Categories
Other
58%
88%
+$6,152
Politics
24%
87%
+$1,103
Sports
18%
53%
-$761
Crypto
0%
93%
-$183
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$1
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-16).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,044 | -$1,422 | 96¢ | $-1958 | -$535 | 05-26 14:29 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | -2,500 | -$506 | 16¢ | $-411 | +$95 | 07-16 20:37 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | -100 | -$84 | 96¢ | $-96 | -$12 | 07-16 20:37 | |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | -57 | -$53 | 95¢ | $-54 | -$1 | 07-16 20:38 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | -15 | -$14 | 100¢ | $-15 | -$1 | 07-16 20:40 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| maduro in us custody by january 31 | 39 | $161.8K | 80,996 | 80,996 | +0 | Yes | +$0 | 01-04 10:36 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 264 | $79.0K | 117,488 | 117,487 | +0 | No | -$1,565 | 07-07 02:47 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 3 | $43.6K | 22,301 | 22,301 | -0 | No | +$403 | 05-10 11:54 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | 2 | $35.3K | 36,119 | 0 | +36,119 | No | +$818 | 04-24 14:52 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 22 | $34.6K | 17,500 | 17,500 | +0 | No | +$169 | 04-24 14:41 |
| fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts | 32 | $33.6K | 32,573 | 32,573 | +0 | Yes | -$326 | 07-14 21:37 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 38 | $31.0K | 21,088 | 21,088 | +0 | No | +$6,488 | 06-08 14:03 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 4 | $25.5K | 15,958 | 10,958 | +5,000 | No | +$529 | 01-19 08:13 |
| nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026 | 2 | $23.8K | 23,807 | 0 | +23,807 | No | +$24 | 01-08 14:19 |
| cilia flores released from custody by january 9 2026 | 4 | $21.5K | 21,543 | 0 | +21,543 | No | +$31 | 01-08 14:20 |
| will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974 | 1 | $20.0K | 20,553 | 0 | +20,553 | No | +$539 | 01-12 00:09 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 2 | $19.7K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | No | +$86 | 05-26 14:26 |
| Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 3 | $19.6K | 10,484 | 10,484 | +0 | No | +$138 | 06-25 11:22 |
| us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991 | 1 | $19.2K | 19,348 | 0 | +19,348 | No | +$174 | 01-18 12:22 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 2 | $17.3K | 8,881 | 8,881 | +0 | No | -$8 | 01-18 12:21 |
| us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31 | 4 | $17.1K | 17,198 | 0 | +17,198 | No | +$115 | 01-26 13:48 |
| Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 12 | $16.0K | 10,862 | 10,862 | +0 | No | +$647 | 06-14 09:57 |
| Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 | $15.6K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | +$1,200 | 06-20 07:53 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | 4 | $14.5K | 20,000 | 20,000 | +0 | No | -$3,792 | 07-11 22:44 |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 3 | $13.8K | 13,000 | 13,000 | +0 | Yes | -$1,799 | 06-14 09:17 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 4 | $13.6K | 6,943 | 6,943 | +0 | No | +$0 | 04-26 17:27 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | 3 | $13.0K | 6,547 | 6,547 | +0 | No | -$7 | 04-24 14:45 |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | 2 | $12.8K | 12,824 | 0 | +12,824 | Yes | +$13 | 02-08 20:06 |
| nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026 | 3 | $11.4K | 11,500 | 0 | +11,500 | No | +$137 | 01-11 23:07 |
| us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155 | 1 | $11.1K | 11,970 | 0 | +11,970 | No | +$838 | 01-19 08:24 |
| highest temperature in paris on april 16 2026 19c | 47 | $10.5K | 10,609 | 0 | +10,609 | Yes | +$119 | 04-16 19:19 |
| cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026 | 2 | $9.1K | 9,239 | 0 | +9,239 | No | +$120 | 01-11 23:10 |
| maduro trial scheduled by january 31 | 1 | $7.9K | 8,000 | 0 | +8,000 | No | +$77 | 01-11 23:09 |
| will khamenei leave iran by friday | 1 | $7.0K | 7,035 | 0 | +7,035 | No | +$28 | 01-08 14:37 |
| us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449 | 1 | $6.9K | 7,000 | 0 | +7,000 | No | +$74 | 01-25 19:27 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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