Realized P&L
-$2.50K
Unrealized P&L
-$565
Hit rate
67.4%
Resolved
565
Trades
2,655
lifetime
Volume
$156.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$919
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 19:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 201 days
Categories
Other
44% 59% -$2,914
Politics
41% 50% +$1,171
Crypto
9% 27% -$893
Sports
5% 62% +$142
Tech
0% 67% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +7,853 $838 4¢ $314 -$524 08-19 21:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +300 $42 88¢ $266 +$224 06-21 21:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? No +295 $59 28¢ $81 +$22 10-30 21:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +300 $48 18¢ $52 +$4 07-09 15:55
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +1,109 $111 4¢ $50 -$61 07-15 10:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +300 $48 14¢ $40 -$8 10-16 19:12
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +761 $128 3¢ $24 -$104 09-15 20:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +172 $36 14¢ $23 -$13 10-22 00:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +300 $48 7¢ $21 -$27 09-28 17:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +116 $60 12¢ $13 -$47 09-22 11:47
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +39 $22 27¢ $11 -$11 10-16 18:01
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +12 $7 82¢ $10 +$3 08-27 10:28
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes +6 $5 98¢ $6 +$0 10-15 17:31
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? Yes +137 $16 4¢ $5 -$11 09-08 17:22
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,500 $16 0¢ $2 -$14 06-19 09:19