(anonymous) 0x3187d4…f51df4
cold 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$1.16K
Unrealized P&L
+$615
Hit rate
44.9%
Resolved
158
Trades
2,427
lifetime
Volume
$59.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$4.61K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-15
last 10-28 22:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 40 days
Categories
Other
74% 54% -$459
Politics
14% 20% -$139
Tech
8% 22% -$184
Crypto
3% 33% -$331
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$2
Sports
1% 0% -$46
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
45 active days in 12wk • peak 192 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +523 $445 88¢ $460 +$16 10-08 00:55
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +1,136 $329 40¢ $454 +$125 10-12 07:51
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +365 $201 78¢ $285 +$84 10-12 12:15
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +1,038 $220 24¢ $244 +$24 10-12 06:48
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,092 $390 22¢ $240 -$150 10-12 11:14
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +266 $185 86¢ $227 +$42 10-12 19:59
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +196 $118 100¢ $195 +$77 09-27 04:10
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +282 $197 69¢ $195 -$2 10-21 18:46
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? No +163 $103 98¢ $160 +$57 09-24 05:51
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +193 $94 80¢ $154 +$60 09-24 08:36
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +161 $100 84¢ $135 +$35 10-12 06:11
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes +558 $215 24¢ $131 -$84 10-12 22:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +130 $96 99¢ $129 +$33 10-13 18:24
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +852 $187 15¢ $124 -$64 10-12 00:43
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +122 $93 98¢ $119 +$27 10-02 20:13
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +272 $126 44¢ $119 -$7 10-14 00:07
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +150 $82 78¢ $118 +$36 10-02 16:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? No +115 $18 99¢ $114 +$97 10-13 14:19
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +197 $80 56¢ $110 +$31 10-22 03:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? No +100 $59 100¢ $100 +$40 10-06 06:21
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +173 $94 56¢ $97 +$3 10-05 18:27
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +99 $80 90¢ $89 +$9 10-12 12:15
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +113 $63 76¢ $87 +$24 09-29 18:55
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +150 $65 56¢ $85 +$20 10-01 13:40
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +103 $62 78¢ $81 +$19 10-08 21:57
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +93 $72 82¢ $77 +$5 10-01 17:06
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +127 $43 60¢ $76 +$33 09-21 20:43
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? Yes +73 $26 98¢ $71 +$45 10-10 19:33
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +88 $70 76¢ $68 -$2 10-12 23:14
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +558 $86 12¢ $67 -$19 10-07 19:46