Realized P&L
-$8.22K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.38K
Hit rate
35.5%
Resolved
212
Trades
1,367
lifetime
Volume
$61.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$45
Open exposure
$4.21K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-05
last 11-10 21:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 31 days
Categories
Other
74% 28% -$8,615
Politics
25% 29% +$483
Tech
0% 0% -$23
Crypto
0% 0% -$63
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 120 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? Yes +3,526 -$28 74¢ $2.6K +$2,620 11-10 16:23
Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,441 $341 30¢ $432 +$92 11-10 21:14
Will Iran target Oman by December 31, 2026? Yes +372 $40 79¢ $294 +$254 11-09 17:20
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,192 $196 12¢ $137 -$58 11-09 23:21
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +967 $128 11¢ $111 -$18 11-10 20:48
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by November 30? Yes +249 $511 34¢ $86 -$425 11-11 00:18
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? Yes +666 $70 8¢ $57 -$14 11-05 22:06
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes +706 $44 7¢ $52 +$9 11-05 15:15
Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31? Yes +652 $127 8¢ $49 -$78 11-08 08:25
Will there be no House floor vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31? Yes +50 $9 96¢ $48 +$39 11-08 20:46
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? Yes +341 $27 8¢ $27 +$0 11-05 00:52
Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 15? Yes +86 $19 32¢ $27 +$8 11-07 13:46
Will Iran target Qatar by December 31, 2026? Yes +88 $21 30¢ $26 +$5 11-06 15:24
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? Yes +100 $25 24¢ $24 $0 11-08 15:13
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes +400 $21 6¢ $24 +$3 11-09 01:03
Will Trump deport 300-400k people? Yes +222 $30 11¢ $23 -$6 11-05 01:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November? No +50 $28 43¢ $21 -$6 11-04 20:21
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026? No +953 $49 2¢ $21 -$28 11-04 15:35
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30? No +444 $31 4¢ $18 -$14 11-03 21:33
Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026? Yes +80 $18 20¢ $16 -$1 11-10 21:57
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? Yes +40 $9 40¢ $16 +$7 11-03 16:30
Will Trump deport 500-600k people? Yes +222 $24 6¢ $14 -$10 11-05 05:12
Will there be between 0 and 4 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30? Yes +19 $5 72¢ $14 +$9 11-04 10:36
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes +333 $30 4¢ $13 -$17 10-26 20:04
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in November 2026? Yes +52 $10 23¢ $12 +$2 11-08 06:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November? Yes +20 $10 57¢ $11 +$1 11-04 20:18
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes +103 $4 11¢ $11 +$7 11-07 00:04
Jensen Huang divorce in 2026? Yes +111 $9 10¢ $11 +$2 11-09 15:52
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by November 30? No +72 $15 14¢ $10 -$5 11-08 20:53
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? Yes +333 $13 3¢ $10 -$3 11-05 00:50