Outrageous-Agriculture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.85K

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

44.7%

Resolved

365

Trades

511

lifetime

Volume

$11.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$16

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 09-13 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

52% 10% -$1,454

Politics

30% 10% -$122

Crypto

10% 21% -$427

Sports

8% 33% +$153

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	+147	$25	7¢	$10	-$15	06-01 20:55
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-250	-$6	1¢	$-4	+$3	07-19 06:40
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-251	-$5	1¢	$-2	+$3	07-19 06:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$560	500	500	+0	Yes	+$360	02-28 20:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$504	455	455	+0	Yes	+$404	05-09 14:54
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	4	$463	418	418	+0	Yes	+$323	07-07 18:00
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$347	314	314	+0	Yes	+$243	07-19 21:43
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	2	$298	208	208	+0	No	+$98	03-07 15:52
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?	2	$232	227	227	+0	Yes	+$182	07-19 21:12
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?	2	$227	217	217	+0	Yes	+$207	07-14 21:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$227	227	227	+0	Yes	+$159	04-07 22:38
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$199	149	149	+0	Yes	+$99	07-14 21:11
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	3	$197	171	171	+0	Yes	+$133	07-05 21:51
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$171	14,286	14,286	+0	No	-$29	02-26 14:33
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	2	$164	417	417	+0	Yes	+$114	03-09 11:10
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	3	$156	332	105	+227	No	+$26	07-19 21:45
will the us not strike iran by march 31 2026	1	$137	340	0	+340	No	-$137	02-24 23:10
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 320 339	2	$129	278	278	+0	No	+$79	03-09 11:10
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$123	510	510	+0	No	+$63	05-10 20:17
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$122	238	238	+0	No	+$22	04-14 23:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	7	$115	970	0	+970	Up	-$115	07-19 23:32
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$105	172	172	+0	No	+$5	06-25 19:51
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	1	$100	210	0	+210	No	-$100	03-07 15:18
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	14,286	0	+14,286	No	-$100	02-24 19:24
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	1	$100	370	0	+370	No	-$100	07-18 07:53
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	2	$100	991	0	+991	No	-$100	03-07 19:57
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	1	$100	246	0	+246	Yes	+$146	02-24 22:41
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	4	$100	650	0	+650	No	-$100	04-22 23:24
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$88	442	0	+442	No	-$88	07-15 13:14
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	5	$82	565	0	+565	No	-$82	07-09 20:33
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	2	$80	222	0	+222	Yes	+$142	06-20 20:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:20 UTC	4	$80	435	0	+435	Down	-$80	07-19 23:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:25 UTC	4	$80	539	0	+539	Down	-$80	07-19 23:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-13 18:17:27	Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	32	42¢	$14	0x735561…
07-19 23:32:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xc61d9e…
07-19 23:32:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xafacbb…
07-19 23:32:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x9b810b…
07-19 23:31:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0xc0a736…
07-19 23:31:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x52630d…
07-19 23:31:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x4781b8…
07-19 23:31:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x61d3f2…
07-19 23:28:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:25 UTC	Up	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xab9f64…
07-19 23:27:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:25 UTC	Up	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xe2672a…
07-19 23:27:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:25 UTC	Up	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xdf0668…
07-19 23:27:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:25 UTC	Up	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xe87497…
07-19 23:23:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x2296d4…
07-19 23:22:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xec9d3c…
07-19 23:22:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xaece01…
07-19 23:20:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0xb3aae6…
07-19 23:17:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x0c6f31…
07-19 23:17:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x731b9b…
07-19 23:16:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0xfaff52…
07-19 23:13:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	157	13¢	$20	0xa7ae26…
07-19 23:11:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x8c9b27…
07-19 23:07:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:05 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x24251b…
07-19 23:06:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:05 UTC	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x3291a8…
07-19 23:06:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:05 UTC	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x5e62b0…
07-19 23:06:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:05 UTC	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xb68a44…
07-19 23:03:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd4d8ce…
07-19 23:03:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0xcc19ac…
07-19 23:03:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xa8a977…
07-19 23:02:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0xf7651e…
07-19 23:01:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xa20d06…
07-19 22:49:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x2424df…
07-19 22:48:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xc4b95f…
07-19 21:46:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	263	9¢	$25	0x1e0447…
07-19 21:45:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	SELL	105	87¢	$91	0x14f64a…
07-19 21:45:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x089248…
07-19 21:43:57	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	314	94¢	$295	0xd09fe7…
07-19 21:41:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	BUY	105	38¢	$40	0x7c5c98…
07-19 21:12:18	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	SELL	227	91¢	$207	0xd37053…
07-19 13:17:48	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	364	2¢	$8	0xdaa3e1…
07-19 09:33:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	186	11¢	$20	0x2fd1e2…
07-19 09:32:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	165	12¢	$20	0x03ae2b…
07-19 09:30:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	44	46¢	$20	0x5580d9…
07-19 08:22:40	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	217	2¢	$5	0x2b166d…
07-19 08:22:21	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	455	1¢	$5	0x99f66a…
07-19 08:21:48	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	167	4¢	$7	0x9fd9fc…
07-19 08:21:25	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	208	2¢	$5	0xc3beb3…
07-19 08:21:07	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	385	3¢	$10	0x9d28c3…
07-19 08:20:55	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	160	10¢	$16	0xed24ab…
07-19 08:20:34	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	158	12¢	$19	0x1da4b5…
07-19 07:21:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xff9bc8…
07-19 07:19:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0xe2d68e…
07-19 07:18:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x83ab4c…
07-19 07:09:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 07:05 UTC	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x31c3bd…
07-19 07:04:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd12ae7…
07-19 07:02:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x479f31…
07-19 06:58:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:55 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xe209c8…
07-19 06:54:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x59e3c4…
07-19 06:51:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xc2615c…
07-19 06:48:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	72	7¢	$5	0x59e2ae…
07-19 06:48:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x16c965…
07-19 06:44:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x961c38…
07-19 06:40:10	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	251	2¢	$5	0xe69dc6…
07-19 06:40:00	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$6	0xa693d1…
07-19 06:38:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xdcc1e5…
07-19 06:35:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x8f6c01…
07-19 06:33:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x65c301…
07-19 06:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x49670c…
07-19 06:29:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	88	6¢	$5	0x628ae0…
07-19 06:26:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0x4dd6e2…
07-19 06:25:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x758ba6…
07-19 06:20:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:20 UTC	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xb74581…
07-19 06:17:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0xa43f92…
07-18 15:13:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x41b33d…
07-18 08:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xd4fe68…
07-18 08:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	90	28¢	$25	0x64aff2…
07-18 08:14:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0xcda9bf…
07-18 08:09:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0x20bf67…
07-18 07:53:45	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0xf271a8…
07-18 07:49:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	127	20¢	$25	0x49808c…
07-18 07:44:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0xcffa1b…
07-18 07:43:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xe9c9fc…
07-18 07:38:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:35 UTC	Up	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xbcef03…
07-18 07:34:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	182	14¢	$25	0x476b48…
07-18 07:33:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0xb06b45…
07-18 07:29:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:25 UTC	Down	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0xa4a3a1…
07-18 07:23:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	220	11¢	$25	0x2f3b4a…
07-18 07:21:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	146	17¢	$25	0xe41f79…
07-18 07:19:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x0b31f3…
07-18 07:12:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x04c616…
07-18 07:11:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x25be6a…
07-18 07:09:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	76	7¢	$5	0x86f0cd…
07-18 07:03:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xb43921…
07-18 06:58:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x3d3974…
07-18 06:54:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x59532a…
07-18 06:51:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 06:50 UTC	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xf85f0c…
07-18 06:47:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x4f71f9…
07-18 06:47:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xbbf13d…
07-17 21:56:30	Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?	Yes	BUY	158	4¢	$6	0xe9557c…
07-17 21:55:21	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$5	0xdbb27b…
07-16 06:56:35	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0xa40a12…