Realized P&L
-$12
Unrealized P&L
-$9
Hit rate
40.2%
Resolved
43
Trades
63
lifetime
Volume
$125
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$14
17 positions
First seen
2026-05-20
last 11-09 11:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 36 days
Categories
Sports
31% 33% +$1
Tech
23% 50% -$2
Other
18% 0% -$11
Crypto
17% 33% +$11
Politics
11% 0% -$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
14 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +9 $1 45¢ $4 +$3 11-02 09:06
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 05-20 15:19
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +7 $2 18¢ $1 -$1 07-14 12:14
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +5 $3 20¢ $1 -$2 07-13 11:12
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes +3 $1 24¢ $1 $0 09-04 15:10
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +38 $1 2¢ $1 $0 08-04 14:40
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +6 $1 9¢ $1 $0 11-09 11:31
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%? Yes +48 $1 1¢ $1 $0 07-31 14:22
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +3 $1 16¢ $1 $0 11-09 11:31
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes +26 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 07-13 11:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +5 $1 10¢ $0 -$1 11-08 10:52
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +16 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 11-09 11:32
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +5 $1 8¢ $0 -$1 07-14 12:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes +17 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 07-21 09:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +12 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 08-25 15:15
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $3 6¢ $0 -$3 05-21 18:18
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026? Yes +11 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 11-02 09:07