Tricky-Pollutant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.05K

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved

126

Trades

6,536

lifetime

Volume

$6.05M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$925

Open exposure

$134.0K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 22:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Politics

65% 70% +$16,735

Other

34% 75% +$17,642

Crypto

1% 100% +$3,105

Sports

0% 86% +$4,077

Tech

0% 100% +$754

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 118 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+67,342	$61,554	92¢	$62.3K	+$737	10-08 05:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+33,400	$27,209	82¢	$27.2K	+$12	10-26 17:25
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+20,000	$18,275	94¢	$18.7K	+$425	09-13 12:37
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-8,900	-$9,274	98¢	$-8718	+$556	08-17 21:51
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+5,556	$3,906	74¢	$4.1K	+$178	09-28 13:08
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+4,000	$3,360	94¢	$3.7K	+$380	05-12 17:57
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5,000	$3,650	74¢	$3.7K	+$25	09-24 02:26
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5,000	$3,200	66¢	$3.3K	+$125	10-26 09:46
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+2,373	$1,993	92¢	$2.2K	+$178	08-01 02:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+56	$9	92¢	$51	+$41	05-31 16:54
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$1,500	98¢	$0	+$1,500	07-05 12:14
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+0	$105	92¢	$0	-$105	06-08 20:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	196	$658.8K	322,177	350,787	-28,609	No	-$1,362	03-01 11:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	639	$426.7K	333,461	262,491	+70,971	No	+$4,383	01-22 21:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	724	$401.5K	571,952	312,271	+259,681	No	+$1,915	05-27 05:31
netanyahu out by march 31 854	124	$371.7K	197,477	184,460	+13,016	No	+$2,203	03-22 13:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	37	$308.2K	202,892	106,175	+96,717	Yes	+$677	04-09 19:58
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	250	$265.8K	203,086	207,299	-4,212	Yes	-$9,135	04-08 20:28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	116	$228.0K	137,508	98,543	+38,965	Yes	-$1,719	03-12 15:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	288	$215.4K	155,371	122,982	+32,390	No	-$2,839	09-15 08:30
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	36	$209.5K	140,000	70,000	+70,000	Yes	+$270	07-23 00:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	79	$190.7K	134,100	100,700	+33,400	open	—	10-26 17:25
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	122	$188.2K	103,299	89,299	+14,000	No	+$318	10-08 03:41
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	50	$159.8K	80,000	80,000	+0	Yes	$0	04-21 20:22
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	45	$140.5K	92,966	52,966	+40,000	Yes	+$4,900	03-03 22:05
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	15	$136.0K	107,342	40,000	+67,342	open	—	10-08 05:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	375	$132.3K	106,532	81,524	+25,008	No	+$2,099	05-04 04:32
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	180	$125.2K	61,915	70,815	-8,900	open	—	08-17 21:51
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	79	$125.1K	70,000	70,000	+0	open	—	07-17 05:43
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	16	$94.1K	94,214	0	+94,214	Yes	+$94	04-20 20:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	63	$88.4K	53,258	63,258	-10,000	No	-$237	04-28 18:11
will iran strike israel on march 6	27	$66.2K	66,461	0	+66,461	No	+$237	03-11 12:00
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	219	$63.6K	63,849	18,949	+44,900	Yes	+$2,182	02-02 17:03
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$61.5K	61,649	0	+61,649	No	+$158	04-30 19:49
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	83	$59.5K	45,000	25,000	+20,000	open	—	09-13 12:37
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	100	$55.6K	45,000	45,000	+0	open	—	07-13 09:38
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	180	$51.6K	32,028	32,027	+0	open	—	06-08 20:14
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	19	$49.9K	25,642	25,642	+0	Yes	+$304	04-30 15:08
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	8	$49.9K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$140	04-23 17:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	7	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$250	06-16 16:54
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	229	$48.9K	46,390	23,680	+22,711	Yes	+$2,399	09-21 05:50
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	15	$47.9K	51,036	0	+51,036	No	+$3,105	06-03 21:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:25:59	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x86b6cb…
10-26 22:25:57	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x410435…
10-26 22:21:32	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	150	69¢	$104	0xbb16fa…
10-26 19:09:38	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,400	74¢	$1,037	0x89130c…
10-26 17:25:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	9,702	81¢	$7,859	0x19b4d8…
10-26 17:18:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x8cdd69…
10-26 17:18:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	298	81¢	$241	0xde4aac…
10-26 16:40:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,413	64¢	$911	0x5bb083…
10-26 16:39:59	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,065	64¢	$685	0x2e7882…
10-26 16:34:09	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x6855b4…
10-26 16:34:00	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x29f6f6…
10-26 16:32:44	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3af46f…
10-26 16:30:59	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x38ccb3…
10-26 16:29:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	138	63¢	$86	0x3b712e…
10-26 16:29:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	105	63¢	$66	0x05d344…
10-26 16:29:23	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,240	63¢	$776	0xf00599…
10-26 16:29:23	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	174	63¢	$109	0x8756fd…
10-26 16:29:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	89	63¢	$56	0x43fdf4…
10-26 16:29:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	67	63¢	$42	0xeacb6c…
10-26 16:29:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	73	63¢	$46	0xb9d9e8…
10-26 16:29:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	116	63¢	$72	0xadba4f…
10-26 16:29:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x52ab36…
10-26 16:29:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	75	63¢	$47	0x3cb4c2…
10-26 16:29:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	700	63¢	$438	0x198634…
10-26 16:29:11	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	62	63¢	$39	0xd2dbdf…
10-26 16:29:11	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	268	63¢	$168	0xae2669…
10-26 16:29:09	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	63¢	$626	0x944c0d…
10-26 16:29:05	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xf29cc9…
10-26 16:29:05	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	215	63¢	$134	0x62bfca…
10-26 16:29:05	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	43	63¢	$27	0x4e018d…
10-26 16:29:05	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$31	0x441520…
10-26 16:29:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	542	63¢	$339	0x729d41…
10-26 16:28:00	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xbc96b5…
10-26 16:27:14	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0xa434c8…
10-26 16:27:09	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x30d5d3…
10-26 16:27:03	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x724223…
10-26 16:25:20	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x82e7d2…
10-26 16:16:21	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	127	85¢	$108	0xefbfee…
10-26 16:10:03	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	180	88¢	$158	0xc24ae3…
10-26 13:55:26	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x79928d…
10-26 13:55:09	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0xb2f3ee…
10-26 13:53:27	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	337	88¢	$297	0x57a7d2…
10-26 13:53:14	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1,441	88¢	$1,267	0x3d8bc3…
10-26 09:46:47	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	64¢	$3,200	0x905c81…
10-26 03:13:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	18,587	82¢	$15,241	0x64b6a0…
10-25 21:04:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x821fb7…
10-25 21:04:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x6427f0…
10-25 20:51:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	19	82¢	$15	0xb7e775…
10-25 20:37:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	122	82¢	$100	0x0a7768…
10-25 20:33:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x6888e5…
10-25 20:27:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xf7ebd4…
10-25 20:25:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,758	82¢	$1,442	0x423500…
10-25 03:02:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	72	82¢	$59	0x398705…
10-25 03:02:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	61	82¢	$50	0x01df44…
10-25 03:02:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	180	82¢	$148	0x7a9b3d…
10-25 03:02:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x6a281c…
10-25 02:31:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	195	82¢	$160	0x9e49ed…
10-25 01:54:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	41	82¢	$34	0x5d3f13…
10-25 01:34:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	300	82¢	$246	0xc3f77f…
10-24 23:36:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,044	82¢	$1,676	0xf3d98e…
10-16 17:55:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4,697	84¢	$3,946	0x837f94…
10-16 17:54:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x072bb8…
10-16 17:52:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	84¢	$1,680	0xd6f36e…
10-16 16:45:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10,000	84¢	$8,400	0x2da943…
10-16 16:41:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	99	84¢	$83	0x03dde2…
10-16 16:06:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$4	0xde1b88…
10-16 16:05:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	62	84¢	$52	0x1691c1…
10-16 15:40:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	125	84¢	$105	0x71d8fa…
10-16 15:35:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x0043bd…
10-16 15:35:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6,399	84¢	$5,375	0xeddd3f…
10-16 01:02:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	14,403	84¢	$12,098	0xff4b39…
10-16 00:52:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0x502c39…
10-16 00:33:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,848	84¢	$1,553	0x611299…
10-16 00:31:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x4178c8…
10-16 00:27:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,500	84¢	$2,100	0x9f7a84…
10-16 00:25:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x2a60e1…
10-16 00:18:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x5e4de3…
10-16 00:17:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	16	84¢	$14	0x7d7b75…
10-16 00:16:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xf2b291…
10-16 00:16:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4,594	84¢	$3,859	0xc94490…
10-13 08:27:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,789	83¢	$4,805	0xae7511…
10-13 08:27:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x4248ec…
10-13 08:24:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,754	83¢	$2,286	0x27c196…
10-13 07:33:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	197	83¢	$164	0xf8a626…
10-13 07:28:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x58b4de…
10-13 07:10:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12,169	83¢	$10,100	0x0ba6ea…
10-13 06:19:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x97941c…
10-13 06:17:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	229	83¢	$190	0x065a0c…
10-13 06:04:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,229	83¢	$1,850	0x84de09…
10-13 05:27:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	23,400	83¢	$19,422	0x15d780…
10-10 13:42:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,820	84¢	$2,369	0xcd6667…
10-10 13:18:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0xca037a…
10-10 13:16:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	70	84¢	$59	0xe7438f…
10-10 13:05:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,272	84¢	$1,909	0x7a7bfe…
10-10 13:04:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8,000	84¢	$6,720	0x264c4a…
10-10 13:02:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,623	84¢	$3,044	0x708ff0…
10-08 05:55:07	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	42	91¢	$38	0x0b5b20…
10-08 03:41:50	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	860	99¢	$855	0xcd86be…
10-08 03:41:41	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	99¢	$1,657	0x966999…
10-08 03:41:35	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	99¢	$1,657	0xe30a80…