Wavy-Custody — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$18

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

104

Trades (30d)

709 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$498

$3.50K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$36

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 11-05 05:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Other

41% 96% +$18

Politics

28% 92% -$7

Crypto

19% 95% +$9

Sports

10% 94% -$2

Tech

2% 92% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	06-26 05:15
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	10-19 05:15
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	10-03 05:15
Will Vladan Đokić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	10-22 05:15
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	$0	10-13 05:15
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	11-05 05:15
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	$0	10-20 05:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	05-11 18:36
bitcoin above 60k on june 10 2026	2	$9	5	5	+0	Yes	-$1	06-09 15:00
israel closes its airspace by june 13	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	-$1	06-10 19:00
israel closes its airspace by june 14	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	-$1	06-10 19:00
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	-$1	06-09 18:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$9	5	5	+0	Yes	-$1	06-13 12:00
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	3	$9	5	5	+0	Yes	-$1	06-11 20:00
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	-$1	06-14 17:00
bitcoin above 60k on june 6 2026	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	-$2	06-05 15:00
will bitcoin dip to 58k june 1 7 2026	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	-$2	06-05 15:00
iran closes its airspace by june 8	3	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	-$2	06-07 20:00
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$8	5	5	+0	No	-$2	06-07 19:00
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$7	5	5	+0	No	-$3	06-26 05:00
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	-$3	08-12 18:00
iran successfully targets shipping on july 15	2	$7	5	5	+0	No	-$3	07-14 12:00
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	-$3	08-12 18:00
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	2	$6	5	5	+0	No	-$4	06-18 17:00
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	-$4	06-19 06:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	2	$6	5	1	+4	Yes	+$0	06-03 18:06
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	2	$6	7	0	+7	Jannik Sinner	+$1	05-15 11:50
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	-$4	06-15 14:00
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-26 05:15
will greece send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-24 05:15
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$0	06-27 05:15
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by july 31	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-25 05:15
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-29 05:30
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots enzo fernandez gte4	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-18 05:15
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-24 05:15
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	11-01 05:30
will spy dip to 710 in july 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-30 05:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 05:15:07	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc058bf…
11-03 05:30:27	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x40088f…
11-03 05:15:34	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x57b162…
11-03 05:15:31	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8f6aa3…
11-03 05:15:25	Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcae8ae…
11-03 05:15:22	Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8c51b9…
11-03 05:15:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x565250…
11-02 05:30:34	Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3239d5…
11-02 05:30:24	Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xaf9222…
11-02 05:30:22	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb6a882…
11-02 05:30:15	Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe9f8ea…
11-02 05:15:27	Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8f9dd7…
11-02 05:15:22	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3d76b3…
11-02 05:15:18	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc8e238…
11-02 05:15:15	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf8a169…
11-02 05:15:12	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x78028e…
11-02 05:15:09	Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 26.5	Over	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc4cf4d…
11-01 05:30:39	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x476ab6…
11-01 05:30:36	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xdcfe75…
11-01 05:30:28	Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcbeb59…
11-01 05:30:18	Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x24aa90…
11-01 05:30:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc08d89…
11-01 05:30:09	Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf574db…
11-01 05:15:27	Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1b84c8…
11-01 05:15:25	Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x91c20c…
11-01 05:15:18	Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b783c…
11-01 05:15:15	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xde0324…
11-01 05:15:13	Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe2a624…
11-01 05:15:09	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe8a369…
10-31 05:15:27	Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xfecdd1…
10-31 05:15:24	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2faacb…
10-31 05:15:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x00721f…
10-31 05:15:18	Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x36b5ac…
10-31 05:15:13	Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1280e3…
10-31 05:15:10	Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcf3cb8…
10-30 05:15:10	Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x839014…
10-30 05:15:07	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x19cfd9…
10-29 05:15:37	Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x605e29…
10-29 05:15:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd114fd…
10-29 05:15:08	Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xea90fd…
10-27 05:15:15	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2dba36…
10-27 05:15:12	Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0fea39…
10-27 05:15:08	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9d3b5a…
10-26 05:30:21	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa60a16…
10-26 05:30:17	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb301a6…
10-26 05:30:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd6dc29…
10-26 05:30:11	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3406ec…
10-26 05:15:24	Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x786282…
10-26 05:15:21	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x986a34…
10-26 05:15:18	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in October?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2b12fb…
10-26 05:15:15	Will XRP reach $1.60 in October?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x64d311…
10-26 05:15:11	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd06c9f…
10-26 05:15:08	Will Solana reach $120 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd43cba…
10-25 05:30:26	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf7ce51…
10-25 05:30:21	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x11cb9b…
10-25 05:30:18	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb5f680…
10-25 05:30:12	Will Solana dip to $80 in October?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x66f832…
10-25 05:15:26	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf4bd9b…
10-25 05:15:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x52d6b9…
10-25 05:15:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9131ba…
10-25 05:15:15	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9a6b5c…
10-25 05:15:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa5a484…
10-25 05:15:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1e15e7…
10-24 05:30:24	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x48cb13…
10-24 05:30:21	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3290e6…
10-24 05:30:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc8e17a…
10-24 05:30:15	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe65ae1…
10-24 05:30:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b70dd…
10-24 05:30:11	Will Solana reach $130 in October?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4004a3…
10-24 05:15:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x111535…
10-24 05:15:20	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf57625…
10-24 05:15:17	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0553ef…
10-24 05:15:14	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xca9d32…
10-24 05:15:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd882eb…
10-24 05:15:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in October?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdc396a…
10-23 05:15:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbce0e2…
10-22 05:15:14	Will Vladan Đokić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc9c6e4…
10-22 05:15:11	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc73016…
10-22 05:15:08	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6b72a4…
10-20 05:15:08	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc74d5f…
10-19 05:15:09	Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5700dc…
10-19 05:15:08	Spread: Commanders (-10.5)	49ers	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc859df…
10-18 05:15:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb2695e…
10-17 05:15:07	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0c216b…
10-16 05:15:13	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6a1559…
10-16 05:15:10	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0a0418…
10-16 05:15:09	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 18 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5a8cbe…
10-15 05:15:11	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 18	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4373d5…
10-15 05:15:08	perim island no longer under houthi control by october 15 20260916	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9d5800…
10-14 05:15:11	Seahawks vs. Broncos: O/U 64.5	Under	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa3ee3b…
10-14 05:15:08	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9b5a1a…
10-13 05:15:09	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6d8cb2…
10-13 05:15:08	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x66e514…
10-12 05:15:08	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x63e2e7…
10-11 05:15:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x05609f…
10-09 05:15:08	Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfed520…
10-08 05:15:07	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7398a…
10-07 05:15:11	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7d031a…
10-07 05:15:08	Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd3ef64…
10-06 05:15:10	Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf84911…