Unwelcome-Pipe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

16.6%

Resolved

179

Trades

607

lifetime

Volume

$6.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$93

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-17 18:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

92% 22% -$3,154

Crypto

4% 28% -$70

Politics

2% 90% +$28

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$25

Tech

1% 100% +$23

Sports

0% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-50	-$44	98¢	$-49	-$5	05-18 17:01
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	-50	-$23	86¢	$-43	-$20	05-13 21:53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+28	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	05-19 04:52
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+17	$5	2¢	$0	-$5	05-18 17:13
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Yes	+208	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	05-18 17:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will avatar fire and ash 5th weekend box office be between 14pt5m and 16m	84	$1.8K	2,354	548	+1,807	No	-$1,429	01-20 22:18
will avatar fire and ash 5th weekend box office be between 13m and 14pt5m	64	$837	1,351	1,188	+163	Yes	-$112	01-20 21:40
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	36	$368	5,294	5,440	-146	Yes	-$179	01-27 06:00
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	20	$334	842	929	-87	No	-$332	01-29 23:02
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be less than 40m	11	$206	476	0	+476	No	-$206	01-04 19:13
will hamnet win outstanding british film at the 2026 bafta awards	4	$162	183	0	+183	Yes	+$22	02-20 23:03
will avatar fire and ash 4th weekend box office be less than 27m	17	$160	850	0	+850	Yes	-$160	01-08 21:59
will sentimental value win in the non english language film category at the 2026 bafta awards	4	$124	69	69	+0	Yes	+$13	02-22 19:16
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$106	150	150	+0	Yes	+$41	01-29 23:07
will eva victor sorry baby win best first time director of a theatrical feature film at the 78th dga awards	7	$103	124	0	+124	No	-$103	02-08 03:57
will mercy opening weekend box office be between 11m and 14m	10	$97	419	185	+234	No	-$58	01-26 20:37
will seth rogen win best actor in a comedy series at the 2026 sag awards	2	$92	0	99	-99	Yes	-$7	01-13 04:50
will avatar fire and ash 5th weekend box office be greater than 16m	12	$75	351	351	+0	No	+$3	01-16 18:54
will avatar fire and ash 5th weekend box office be less than 13m	7	$64	2,103	120	+1,983	No	-$18	01-18 18:57
will avatar fire and ash 6th weekend box office be less than 8pt5m	4	$59	332	0	+332	Yes	-$59	01-23 00:25
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	4	$50	121	0	+121	No	-$50	04-04 15:22
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	9	$50	705	0	+705	Yes	-$50	05-25 04:34
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$44	0	50	-50	open	—	05-18 17:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$43	167	167	+0	Yes	+$23	04-20 23:21
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	3	$43	1,138	1,321	-183	No	-$37	01-13 03:59
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	3	$40	128	0	+128	Yes	+$88	04-05 14:45
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	1	$40	0	40	-40	No	$0	01-03 22:29
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$39	25	25	+0	Yes	-$1	01-08 19:15
will avatar fire and ash be nominated for best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$39	23	23	+0	No	-$1	01-08 19:14
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	1	$38	0	40	-40	No	-$2	05-18 04:25
will jafar panahi be nominated for best director at the 98th academy awards	1	$38	0	89	-89	No	-$51	01-13 04:49
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$37	79	79	+0	No	+$27	05-18 16:55
will marty supreme win best casting at the 2026 bafta awards	6	$33	152	0	+152	No	-$33	02-22 05:41
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?	6	$33	202	0	+202	No	-$33	05-22 18:50
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?	5	$28	260	0	+260	No	-$28	05-19 04:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 18:04:59	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2d2e2b…
10-17 18:04:03	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x85902e…
10-17 18:03:47	Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xd2d9df…
10-12 04:20:44	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	No	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x27bc52…
10-12 04:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	56	1¢	$1	0x0348b6…
10-12 04:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x512d8e…
10-12 04:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	58	10¢	$6	0x10f6ce…
10-12 04:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x48ac7a…
10-12 04:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xd69a45…
10-12 04:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb5e8a1…
10-12 04:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf666c6…
10-12 04:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x0251a1…
10-12 04:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x17f80c…
10-12 04:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x010810…
10-12 04:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xdbd683…
10-12 04:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1e28b0…
10-12 04:10:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x4d0f60…
10-12 04:09:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8590cc…
10-12 04:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb6c7e3…
10-12 04:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x2c0ccd…
10-12 04:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x2dbf80…
10-12 04:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xeeb0ec…
10-12 04:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	93¢	$2	0xb64664…
10-12 04:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x222735…
10-12 04:05:29	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8f9944…
10-12 04:05:02	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	No	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x026971…
09-18 20:48:03	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x7a0e5d…
06-25 21:06:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4c5a5e…
06-15 16:53:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x41f393…
06-07 03:35:31	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xec9db4…
06-07 03:34:49	Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x14a970…
06-06 15:59:13	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9c5b8e…
06-06 15:58:43	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m?	Yes	BUY	246	2¢	$5	0xe1074f…
06-06 15:58:37	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 44m?	Yes	BUY	548	1¢	$5	0x4172b2…
06-06 15:55:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	24	24¢	$6	0x9899fe…
06-06 15:54:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0xf051a4…
06-06 15:54:16	Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	19	29¢	$6	0x781308…
06-06 14:29:30	Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?	Yes	BUY	285	2¢	$5	0x543461…
06-03 17:15:48	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xc733ff…
05-29 02:05:00	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9af581…
05-29 02:02:50	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xa03e39…
05-29 02:01:26	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	No	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0x2386a9…
05-27 22:17:01	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0xfa756e…
05-27 18:14:37	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x71f35e…
05-27 18:14:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xdd310f…
05-27 18:14:05	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0x2e8dbb…
05-27 18:12:15	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x251247…
05-27 18:10:47	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x8e02e8…
05-25 04:34:01	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	286	1¢	$2	0xa9fa7e…
05-24 18:50:24	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x31afd4…
05-24 18:48:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	38¢	$13	0x8f044b…
05-24 18:36:59	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	34	9¢	$3	0x430a06…
05-24 07:38:24	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x75fcc2…
05-24 07:37:40	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x0f097d…
05-24 07:37:35	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x82a6e7…
05-24 07:36:54	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x84df45…
05-24 07:36:23	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0x7996f2…
05-23 19:19:19	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xc20666…
05-22 18:50:11	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0x5e56c7…
05-22 18:50:08	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa3a8b2…
05-22 18:50:08	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?	Yes	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x748d56…
05-19 04:59:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xfce53b…
05-19 04:59:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	88	6¢	$5	0x9aea86…
05-19 04:56:00	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x6a59ee…
05-19 04:54:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x0f4f2b…
05-19 04:54:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x654136…
05-19 04:54:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb31ffd…
05-19 04:52:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x55aba7…
05-19 04:51:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x354241…
05-19 04:51:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3ae2ec…
05-19 04:48:46	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xcb3954…
05-19 04:46:49	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc11910…
05-19 04:44:15	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x625ecd…
05-18 18:24:34	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x3f6b96…
05-18 18:24:29	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x522481…
05-18 18:22:26	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xcc331f…
05-18 18:20:57	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	22¢	$16	0xfba0ea…
05-18 17:14:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xc6e718…
05-18 17:13:15	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xeaf4bd…
05-18 17:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x615d4d…
05-18 17:02:47	Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	208	2¢	$5	0x008de5…
05-18 17:01:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xb2ddd3…
05-18 17:00:22	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xd79e9d…
05-18 17:00:11	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xd8c469…
05-18 16:59:43	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xf16c40…
05-18 16:59:36	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 122m?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0xe51bbd…
05-18 16:58:46	Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?	No	BUY	84	1¢	$1	0x60cc86…
05-18 16:58:00	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x270e52…
05-18 16:56:33	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x589c06…
05-18 16:55:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x4fb959…
05-18 16:55:05	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	41¢	$32	0x85da21…
05-18 16:52:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	4¢	$5	0x6c93f1…
05-18 05:29:49	hype up or down may 18 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa19524…
05-18 05:29:40	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xa05584…
05-18 05:29:30	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe68d80…
05-18 05:29:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x2d5514…
05-18 05:27:34	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-18 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x7e2ef8…
05-18 05:27:20	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-18 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xeaccb0…
05-18 05:26:54	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x570ad0…
05-18 05:26:26	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x83024c…