Marvelous-Fratricide — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$64

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

68.8%

Resolved

135

Trades

471

lifetime

Volume

$5.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$147

12 positions

First seen

2026-05-16

last 11-05 15:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Other

50% 77% +$16

Politics

37% 60% -$98

Tech

8% 64% +$20

Crypto

4% 64% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+38	$30	84¢	$32	+$2	10-17 19:50
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+23	$17	86¢	$20	+$2	10-21 15:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+20	$18	97¢	$19	+$2	07-29 06:37
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	+20	$15	92¢	$18	+$4	08-25 09:44
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+14	$12	88¢	$13	+$1	08-17 12:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+12	$10	90¢	$11	+$1	10-15 05:57
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+14	$10	64¢	$9	-$1	10-17 19:50
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	No	+13	$10	66¢	$9	-$1	10-15 05:59
Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+289	$28	3¢	$8	-$19	11-04 11:59
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	+85	$13	5¢	$4	-$9	11-04 11:59
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$7	3¢	$3	-$5	10-29 13:02
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?	No	+20	$4	6¢	$1	-$3	11-04 11:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	6	$269	166	166	+0	No	-$5	07-01 14:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$238	149	149	+0	No	+$18	06-14 15:55
israel closes its airspace by june 14	2	$238	127	127	+0	No	-$2	06-14 18:01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	8	$214	120	120	+0	No	+$2	06-17 13:56
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	7	$198	1,223	168	+1,056	Yes	+$56	07-03 10:11
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	14	$158	248	148	+100	open	—	10-29 13:02
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	7	$156	214	55	+159	Yes	+$20	06-11 19:02
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	3	$138	158	0	+158	Yes	-$138	06-15 13:46
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	9	$132	79	79	+0	Yes	+$21	06-09 09:41
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	4	$127	70	70	+0	No	+$5	07-01 14:02
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	8	$117	90	60	+30	No	+$18	08-27 13:37
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	7	$91	77	77	+0	Yes	-$20	06-23 20:37
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	6	$87	114	0	+114	No	+$27	06-25 10:47
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	5	$84	58	58	+0	Yes	+$24	06-30 12:15
will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	8	$82	110	110	+0	Yes	+$16	07-17 17:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$73	57	57	+0	No	+$1	07-08 11:25
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	5	$70	52	32	+20	No	+$2	07-04 08:58
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	5	$68	40	40	+0	No	+$4	07-24 02:37
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?	4	$65	35	35	+0	No	+$3	06-26 10:29
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	3	$63	34	34	+0	No	+$3	05-30 21:00
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	4	$61	40	40	+0	Yes	-$8	06-02 19:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 16:20 UTC	10	$59	48	48	+0	Up	-$1	07-04 16:24
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	4	$58	46	46	+0	Yes	+$30	07-15 20:16
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	5	$54	42	22	+20	Yes	+$2	07-01 20:44
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	11	$53	1,293	121	+1,172	No	-$15	07-03 10:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 16:45 UTC	5	$48	92	59	+33	Down	+$1	07-04 16:48
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	3	$48	53	0	+53	Yes	+$5	06-13 09:18
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	3	$48	30	30	+0	open	—	09-25 13:21
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	4	$47	34	27	+7	No	-$3	07-04 19:13
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	3	$44	24	24	+0	No	+$4	06-30 12:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 15:58:15	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	SELL	25	70¢	$18	0x07b565…
11-04 11:59:31	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xf09685…
11-04 11:59:31	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0x9d01a5…
11-04 11:59:27	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0xe1b70b…
11-04 11:57:37	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0x90808e…
11-04 11:57:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xdddfb8…
11-04 07:33:25	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7be8e3…
11-04 07:33:16	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xe1050b…
11-01 10:18:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x5a61dc…
11-01 10:17:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x961b6c…
11-01 10:17:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x070435…
11-01 10:17:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x1a6a72…
10-31 12:25:07	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0xa2a8ce…
10-29 13:06:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xf7a7e8…
10-29 13:06:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x32ceda…
10-29 13:06:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x6bb5b7…
10-29 13:06:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x90aa37…
10-29 13:05:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xa044c2…
10-29 13:02:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x81a03e…
10-25 15:52:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x057474…
10-25 10:41:27	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xea6da4…
10-24 07:35:45	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0x188e26…
10-24 07:29:53	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x2f9b1b…
10-24 07:29:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xdecfc6…
10-21 20:10:05	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbfb8fe…
10-21 20:10:05	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x378cad…
10-21 19:50:21	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x49a8bb…
10-21 15:39:51	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x02dbe2…
10-21 15:36:48	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x446be7…
10-21 15:36:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x794f4a…
10-21 12:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0xbac340…
10-21 12:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7091af…
10-21 12:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3a8c92…
10-21 12:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0cc92f…
10-21 11:44:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x2e9016…
10-21 11:43:14	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xa435f3…
10-21 11:42:53	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x9176de…
10-21 11:42:35	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x980ecb…
10-20 06:17:28	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x186255…
10-20 06:16:38	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xcd324e…
10-20 06:16:20	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x32f2c6…
10-20 06:16:07	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x337be9…
10-20 06:15:58	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	88¢	$25	0xddcc69…
10-18 05:15:36	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x192dbb…
10-17 19:50:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x55162b…
10-17 19:50:32	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd0d912…
10-17 19:50:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x73dee5…
10-17 19:50:15	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x60d2e6…
10-15 05:59:22	Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xda8c42…
10-15 05:58:28	us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xc8349e…
10-15 05:57:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x55c3e0…
10-15 05:56:58	iran oman hormuz agreement by november 30	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xd7f78d…
10-15 05:56:53	iran oman hormuz agreement by october 31	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x9c2c81…
10-15 05:55:53	Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x119319…
10-15 05:55:47	Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x776ab9…
10-15 05:55:38	Will Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x82a6cf…
10-15 05:55:32	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x2be8f3…
10-15 05:54:26	Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x94450d…
10-15 05:54:17	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x800647…
10-15 05:53:53	us iran hormuz agreement by november 2	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x9fb4be…
10-15 05:53:49	us iran hormuz agreement by october 31	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xc2f84b…
10-15 05:53:34	us iran hormuz agreement by november 30	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x9df5fe…
10-15 05:52:41	Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x860098…
10-12 08:59:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xba82c2…
10-12 08:59:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0xe05159…
10-12 08:58:52	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xcbb2f3…
10-12 08:00:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	99	45¢	$45	0xc2681b…
10-10 08:56:27	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0xcb1bbf…
10-10 08:54:16	Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x7749c5…
10-09 09:49:45	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x0da77e…
10-08 12:01:54	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	14¢	$8	0xf09668…
10-05 16:16:44	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x6de39f…
10-05 14:06:11	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xacd18b…
10-04 15:16:07	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x5b1aa9…
10-04 11:36:07	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x085f99…
10-04 11:34:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x003e76…
09-30 07:31:27	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xe5d457…
09-30 07:30:18	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x20a6b4…
09-28 15:46:23	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0x4a5752…
09-28 15:45:24	Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x1fcdd0…
09-25 13:24:47	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189 588	No	BUY	35	32¢	$11	0x3bdc50…
09-25 13:24:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x877f22…
09-25 13:21:57	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x3fc40a…
09-25 13:21:29	russia ukraine peace talks by november 30 2026	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x880510…
09-25 13:21:05	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0x8d006d…
09-17 20:05:16	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0xd2384a…
09-17 20:03:49	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x5c6a3b…
09-17 20:02:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x43c1a3…
09-17 20:02:24	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xd0f624…
09-15 11:36:46	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1f19fa…
09-08 14:58:37	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x10ee38…
09-08 14:58:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x3be2e5…
08-30 18:37:58	Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5feb7e…
08-28 15:59:07	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xf40369…
08-28 08:21:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xc78f7c…
08-27 21:12:43	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x8bea6a…
08-27 13:38:37	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x0a5396…
08-27 13:38:00	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x48de94…
08-27 13:37:54	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x82fceb…
08-27 13:35:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x1ba282…