Organic-Modeling 0x3e2322…fd8579 Create alert
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Realized P&L
-$546
Unrealized P&L
+$819
Hit rate
60.9%
Resolved
89
Trades
530
lifetime
Volume
$38.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$73
Open exposure
$5.78K
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-23
last 11-08 11:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 40 days
Categories
Other
49% 68% +$656
Politics
47% 48% -$419
Sports
4% 0% -$783
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
18 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +1,226 $504 97¢ $1.2K +$683 07-07 21:05
will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026 No +1,200 $948 92¢ $1.1K +$157 07-05 15:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +763 $568 98¢ $745 +$177 05-19 22:52
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +739 $526 92¢ $684 +$158 05-16 21:24
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +647 $467 92¢ $599 +$132 07-13 20:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +400 $200 90¢ $358 +$158 06-06 12:21
US recession by end of 2026? No -200 -$148 98¢ $-196 -$48 04-28 21:11
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? No +200 $140 78¢ $155 +$15 10-22 02:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -160 -$106 92¢ $-146 -$41 05-04 18:20
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +160 $102 77¢ $123 +$21 10-19 12:33
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -76 -$71 99¢ $-75 -$4 05-26 23:07
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +81 $35 91¢ $74 +$39 10-26 16:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? No +100 $72 72¢ $72 +$0 10-25 13:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? No +100 $65 64¢ $64 $0 10-25 22:57
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +1,478 $550 4¢ $64 -$486 11-01 03:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? No +100 $59 57¢ $57 -$2 10-25 13:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? No +100 $51 48¢ $48 -$4 10-25 13:37
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +15 $8 92¢ $14 +$6 04-28 22:02
trump meets with putin by december 31 No +224 $153 4¢ $10 -$142 07-04 11:04