Frugal-Polarisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$182

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

97.1%

Resolved

Trades

5,770

lifetime

Volume

$1.49M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$258

Open exposure

$397

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-05 18:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

47% 100% +$6

Crypto

45% 95% +$171

Politics

7% 50% +$4

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No		-406	$-388	98¢	$-397	$-9	06-05 18:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	33	$143.3K	82,848	66,922	+15,926	open	—	01-28 22:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	46	$57.3K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	04-28 15:25
over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	12	$50.4K	25,537	25,572	-35	open	—	01-10 16:01
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	6	$40.7K	20,770	20,770	+0	open	—	02-27 11:42
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	368	$34.3K	19,779	21,494	-1,715	open	—	04-10 23:49
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	27	$30.8K	15,339	15,899	-560	open	—	01-15 16:25
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	29	$26.8K	14,306	14,074	+232	open	—	01-16 07:14
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$25.7K	13,199	13,996	-797	open	—	03-31 02:45
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?	13	$24.6K	12,368	12,468	-100	open	—	01-10 06:08
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	14	$24.0K	12,372	12,372	+0	open	—	02-07 18:38
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	12	$21.5K	12,161	12,161	+0	open	—	05-14 01:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	61	$19.7K	13,147	13,147	+0	open	—	04-28 03:30
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?	19	$16.9K	17,316	0	+17,316	open	—	01-08 23:40
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	37	$15.2K	15,542	0	+15,542	open	—	01-31 09:55
will opinion launch a token on march 5	24	$15.0K	15,431	0	+15,431	open	—	03-03 11:08
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	46	$13.0K	7,366	6,866	+500	open	—	01-31 01:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$12.2K	13,008	0	+13,008	open	—	03-28 02:49
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	17	$12.1K	9,774	3,060	+6,713	open	—	01-16 10:07
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	21	$11.9K	7,267	7,267	+0	open	—	02-07 18:37
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	56	$11.8K	8,079	4,079	+4,000	open	—	02-23 09:14
Over $7M committed to the Fabric public sale?	6	$11.0K	5,525	5,525	+0	open	—	02-02 12:05
will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	7	$10.9K	5,566	5,566	+0	open	—	03-24 12:28
Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	12	$10.8K	6,363	4,464	+1,900	open	—	02-03 21:12
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	16	$9.5K	4,891	4,891	+0	open	—	04-15 00:53
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch?	14	$9.5K	4,333	5,432	-1,099	open	—	02-02 16:06
Over $5M committed to the Fabric public sale?	11	$9.3K	4,695	4,695	+0	open	—	02-02 12:05
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	89	$9.2K	4,804	4,804	+0	open	—	02-27 13:25
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	15	$9.2K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-28 18:13
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	45	$8.6K	3,690	5,410	-1,720	open	—	03-27 00:35
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	17	$8.4K	3,815	5,415	-1,600	open	—	02-23 01:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 18:19:30	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	406	96¢	$388	0x0e17d8…
05-28 14:55:18	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	1,625	96¢	$1,554	0xcf5632…
05-17 08:50:26	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,827	2¢	$46	0x196572…
05-17 08:45:09	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	173	2¢	$4	0x4d010d…
05-14 01:54:05	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	10,204	99¢	$10,051	0x00a646…
05-13 14:08:54	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x9f8264…
05-13 12:36:35	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$991	0x5b93b6…
05-13 09:57:59	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0xe98f76…
05-13 02:47:39	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$985	0xeb1a99…
05-11 23:53:11	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	800	99¢	$794	0x83158e…
05-11 23:52:28	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x118ed6…
05-08 18:49:34	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	140	85¢	$119	0x308150…
05-08 18:46:29	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	357	85¢	$304	0x8f43c1…
05-08 18:05:44	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x5665b6…
05-08 04:22:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	400	28¢	$112	0x447b41…
05-05 07:58:48	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	34	7¢	$3	0x223625…
05-05 07:42:34	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	274	7¢	$20	0xc97198…
05-05 04:36:40	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x9b19cc…
05-05 03:30:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	348	94¢	$327	0xb34322…
05-05 03:30:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	433	94¢	$407	0x92f1bd…
05-05 03:26:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	219	94¢	$206	0xdb12e4…
05-04 14:02:20	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	192	40¢	$77	0xa95aef…
05-04 12:12:56	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	642	97¢	$626	0x0df66c…
05-04 09:22:16	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	703	98¢	$692	0x1813f2…
05-04 07:21:50	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	137	71¢	$97	0x6a9668…
05-04 07:20:36	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	87	71¢	$62	0x2d387d…
05-04 07:20:26	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$29	0xc522ce…
05-04 07:20:24	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	186	71¢	$133	0xe89ab6…
05-04 07:20:18	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x906dbc…
05-04 05:43:14	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$478	0x843408…
05-04 02:18:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0xe15c2b…
05-03 23:54:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0xf39b5f…
05-03 23:46:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x1ef68a…
05-03 23:41:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0xe4b4e7…
05-03 23:26:26	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	242	96¢	$233	0x4ecb20…
05-03 23:26:04	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	458	95¢	$435	0xfb09c1…
05-03 23:12:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x60aabd…
05-03 23:10:56	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xa33125…
05-03 22:50:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x485fef…
05-03 22:46:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x401155…
05-03 22:44:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xe505a3…
05-03 22:26:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xc4091e…
05-03 22:15:36	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x928f46…
05-03 20:56:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	304	93¢	$283	0xbd7f84…
05-03 17:26:52	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	65	96¢	$63	0x23bde8…
05-03 15:55:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	647	94¢	$608	0x225edf…
05-03 15:55:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	67	94¢	$63	0xc3b18e…
05-03 15:55:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x1c643f…
05-03 15:55:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,253	94¢	$1,178	0xd10340…
05-03 15:32:08	Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xa1a1a5…
05-03 15:12:46	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0xebfe99…
05-03 14:37:06	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	291	96¢	$279	0x4246de…
05-03 14:12:12	Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$272	0xa850e8…
05-02 20:43:12	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	72	88¢	$64	0xa5904f…
05-02 20:42:44	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$9	0x1544b2…
05-02 20:00:48	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x42fd2a…
05-02 19:43:24	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	95	88¢	$84	0xc4be35…
05-02 18:15:52	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xc7cf75…
05-02 17:51:48	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x34a429…
05-02 17:42:22	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x3344c8…
05-02 17:35:44	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0xa0c974…
05-02 09:35:04	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0x445e29…
05-02 06:08:24	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x1d5850…
04-30 07:47:26	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	695	100¢	$693	0xbf86a5…
04-30 07:25:50	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,305	100¢	$1,301	0x43d404…
04-30 06:13:50	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	800	96¢	$769	0x954566…
04-30 06:13:28	Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	792	96¢	$758	0x942b16…
04-30 06:13:10	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	1,458	95¢	$1,383	0x540bff…
04-30 02:54:56	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xbd6ca7…
04-30 02:54:56	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	314	83¢	$261	0x149785…
04-30 02:45:22	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	87	83¢	$72	0xb916d6…
04-30 01:07:54	Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	No	BUY	49	95¢	$47	0x736663…
04-29 16:01:38	Pharos FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,534	100¢	$1,527	0xe4c8be…
04-29 13:11:58	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,219	92¢	$1,122	0xfbde11…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0xc4edc7…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xbadcc2…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x532952…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$21	0x3faf45…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$21	0x3de76e…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x301bc5…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$34	0x0d970d…
04-29 13:03:52	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0x0a6893…
04-29 13:02:02	Pharos FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	177	99¢	$175	0xbb686d…
04-29 13:01:02	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	69¢	$9	0xe548a0…
04-29 13:00:06	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	317	79¢	$250	0x7c9a5c…
04-29 13:00:06	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0x310548…
04-29 12:57:20	Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,581	91¢	$1,445	0x8e303a…
04-29 12:56:26	Pharos FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	210	100¢	$209	0x31d953…
04-29 12:56:02	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,025	100¢	$1,022	0xc392de…
04-29 12:27:40	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xfcf15f…
04-29 12:27:08	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xef0687…
04-29 12:26:56	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xeb4536…
04-29 12:26:36	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x773c89…
04-29 12:26:14	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x6feb0e…
04-29 12:26:02	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x4d4e97…
04-29 12:25:44	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x2a2a96…
04-29 12:25:28	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xaa56ab…
04-29 12:24:50	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x10d73d…
04-29 12:24:38	Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa94a3f…
04-29 07:36:58	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	3,915	78¢	$3,054	0xda8f57…