Constant-Snowplow 0x3e5630…d335d5
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← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$22
Unrealized P&L
+$23
Hit rate
59.4%
Resolved
1,049
Trades
8,600
lifetime
Volume
$8.23K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$243
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 01:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 231 days
Categories
Politics
61% 57% -$82
Other
35% 52% +$71
Tech
3% 35% -$12
Crypto
0% 33% +$2
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -38 -$32 82¢ $-31 +$1 09-07 11:30
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +32 -$2 80¢ $26 +$28 09-29 17:10
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +31 $16 75¢ $23 +$7 09-18 00:16
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No -29 -$26 81¢ $-23 +$2 08-23 09:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +19 $6 88¢ $17 +$11 06-20 02:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +12 $10 96¢ $11 +$1 06-07 09:38
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +11 $6 94¢ $10 +$4 05-13 10:24
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No -10 -$9 96¢ $-10 $0 06-20 02:34
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31 Yes +119 $35 7¢ $8 -$27 10-15 19:24
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638 No +8 $6 94¢ $8 +$2 08-19 13:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +8 -$4 88¢ $7 +$11 10-09 00:00
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes -12 -$12 58¢ $-7 +$5 10-27 03:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +39 $11 16¢ $7 -$4 09-30 19:55
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes +140 $8 4¢ $6 -$2 10-26 18:05
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -5 -$4 94¢ $-5 $0 07-16 09:15
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? Yes +181 $10 2¢ $4 -$6 10-28 01:44
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? Yes +123 $3 3¢ $4 +$1 10-14 21:21
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31? No +5 $4 93¢ $4 +$0 09-07 11:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes +7 $4 54¢ $4 $0 09-23 12:30
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223 Yes +20 $2 16¢ $3 +$1 10-20 00:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No -6 -$4 50¢ $-3 +$1 05-24 17:29
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +3 $2 90¢ $3 +$1 08-08 07:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +3 $2 97¢ $3 +$1 05-26 02:29
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No -3 -$2 95¢ $-2 $0 06-20 03:08
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637 No +3 $2 87¢ $2 +$0 08-09 15:31
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 Yes +20 $6 12¢ $2 -$4 08-22 00:24
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +6 $2 38¢ $2 +$0 10-07 12:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +18 $5 12¢ $2 -$3 06-19 23:25
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +19 $4 12¢ $2 -$1 10-25 14:52
us imports russian diesel by october 31 Yes +127 $9 2¢ $2 -$7 10-27 16:11