Grizzled-Specification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

49.3%

Resolved

Trades

299

lifetime

Volume

$1.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-04 22:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

52% 67% +$1

Crypto

26% 48% $-12

Other

22% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+50	$10	20¢	$10	$-0	07-04 22:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+36	$10	24¢	$8	$-2	06-19 12:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+28	$5	0¢	$0	$-5	06-01 15:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	9	$205	1,081	400	+681	open	—	02-13 18:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$62	244	244	+0	Yes	$-8	04-29 20:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$47	240	67	+173	open	—	04-22 22:29
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	2	$39	279	279	+0	open	—	06-17 21:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	5	$38	46	43	+3	open	—	05-04 15:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$36	722	268	+455	open	—	04-08 20:38
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	4	$35	350	524	-174	open	—	01-09 10:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$35	1,421	0	+1,421	open	—	05-29 16:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$32	58	58	+0	Yes	+$2	04-29 20:57
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	2	$28	167	167	+0	open	—	01-24 21:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$23	203	143	+60	open	—	04-08 11:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$20	217	0	+217	open	—	04-30 15:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$19	71	71	+0	open	—	04-07 11:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	2	$19	29	29	+1	open	—	04-15 07:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$17	42	40	+1	open	—	04-29 14:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$17	141	141	+0	Yes	+$7	04-09 21:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	1	$15	219	0	+219	open	—	05-06 12:51
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$14	103	103	+0	open	—	04-07 11:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	2	$13	59	57	+2	open	—	04-29 14:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$12	242	152	+91	open	—	04-08 11:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	1	$10	70	0	+70	open	—	04-09 19:48
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$10	50	0	+50	open	—	07-04 22:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	1	$10	53	0	+53	open	—	04-30 15:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	1	$10	111	0	+111	open	—	04-14 00:05
si settle 77 5 80 jan 2026	1	$10	264	0	+264	open	—	01-30 19:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	1	$10	36	0	+36	open	—	06-19 12:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	1	$10	42	0	+42	open	—	04-09 19:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	1	$10	71	0	+71	open	—	04-09 22:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	2	$10	177	0	+177	open	—	06-01 15:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$10	154	154	+0	open	—	04-09 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 22:40:05	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x2c1c83…
06-19 12:40:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x9600de…
06-17 21:45:17	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	279	10¢	$29	0xa47a46…
06-01 15:53:33	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	279	4¢	$10	0x5d4fe9…
06-01 15:53:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x61e2af…
06-01 15:53:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	135	4¢	$5	0x7bd57d…
05-29 16:40:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x391252…
05-29 16:40:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,247	1¢	$10	0xc0093b…
05-21 20:17:26	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0xd14ead…
05-18 21:04:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	87	6¢	$5	0xbe8182…
05-07 09:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x2a1358…
05-07 09:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3e6c29…
05-07 09:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xab9089…
05-07 09:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x15ad93…
05-07 09:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x7ce3f7…
05-07 09:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x9ba999…
05-07 09:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x71e088…
05-07 09:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0xab7da0…
05-07 09:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x63d99b…
05-07 09:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xc0275c…
05-07 09:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x1e172f…
05-07 09:32:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x3c02ac…
05-07 09:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5ad5f6…
05-07 09:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1eb66e…
05-07 09:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x8f30ed…
05-07 09:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x2a2f13…
05-07 09:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xde4649…
05-07 09:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x34ced2…
05-07 09:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x387ca5…
05-07 09:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x84fbdb…
05-07 09:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3b2a6a…
05-07 09:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xbf6234…
05-07 09:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xdaa590…
05-07 09:08:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x6a3239…
05-07 09:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc79331…
05-07 08:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2c72ef…
05-07 08:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x8959e1…
05-07 08:36:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3fa18a…
05-07 08:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0xb3b5ee…
05-07 08:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf8b79b…
05-07 08:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc5df71…
05-07 08:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5f1aad…
05-07 08:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x6c35b6…
05-07 08:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x35d459…
05-07 08:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xe94e45…
05-07 08:22:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x055930…
05-07 08:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1082f1…
05-07 08:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x6357ba…
05-07 08:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xfd51c1…
05-07 07:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xcefa92…
05-06 20:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xcda679…
05-06 20:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xca0f04…
05-06 20:47:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x942c6a…
05-06 20:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x12cfaf…
05-06 20:36:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x1c5ac1…
05-06 20:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc2190f…
05-06 20:34:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5224fd…
05-06 20:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf3de4e…
05-06 20:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xbb3766…
05-06 20:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc7c3eb…
05-06 20:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x53a7cb…
05-06 20:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa5e32d…
05-06 20:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	11	38¢	$4	0x5c8878…
05-06 20:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9524ea…
05-06 20:21:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x776b15…
05-06 18:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x578714…
05-06 18:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x879ca1…
05-06 18:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0xa4b743…
05-06 18:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x545ef9…
05-06 18:31:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xac34d8…
05-06 18:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x074364…
05-06 18:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8a00b7…
05-06 17:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x936253…
05-06 17:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5adbf0…
05-06 17:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xcea3c5…
05-06 17:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xe66297…
05-06 17:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4a2d1a…
05-06 17:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcacf95…
05-06 17:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x42eac1…
05-06 17:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xde0dc8…
05-06 17:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x0530bb…
05-06 17:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xeba930…
05-06 17:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x0fe63e…
05-06 17:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xca56a8…
05-06 17:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x94b522…
05-06 17:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9ef544…
05-06 17:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x0d52be…
05-06 17:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x12898e…
05-06 17:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x08423c…
05-06 17:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf3c1ef…
05-06 17:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x79fdca…
05-06 17:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x19aafa…
05-06 17:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x5bb7b5…
05-06 17:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd8ae1b…
05-06 17:04:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x943d18…
05-06 17:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x54eb0f…
05-06 16:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x0863a6…
05-06 16:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x978c0c…
05-06 16:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1d33ee…
05-06 16:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0x327bb5…