Sturdy-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$131

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

1,371

Trades

1,694

lifetime

Volume

$29.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 99% -$37

Other

26% 86% -$7

Politics

22% 25% -$57

Sports

8% 25% -$25

Tech

4% 0% -$6

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+0	$0	18¢	$0	+$0	05-31 15:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	11	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-01 07:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	44	$1.5K	1,317	1,317	+0	No	+$3	06-25 12:00
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	17	$1.0K	1,202	1,202	+0	Yes	-$10	06-13 06:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$968	806	806	+0	No	+$22	07-05 01:02
Fed rate hike in 2026?	12	$860	800	800	+0	Yes	$0	06-20 22:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	7	$760	600	600	+0	open	—	07-07 13:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$754	600	600	+0	No	-$14	05-30 22:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	6	$680	600	600	+0	Yes	+$0	05-27 02:23
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	5	$492	400	400	+0	Yes	$0	06-09 15:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	9	$488	400	400	+0	No	+$0	06-26 08:26
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$320	400	400	+0	No	+$0	05-29 18:39
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 07:46
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$296	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-17 01:12
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$288	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-27 08:34
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	13	$284	280	280	+0	No	+$0	05-28 22:05
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	2	$284	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	05-20 15:02
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$284	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 09:52
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$268	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-02 18:08
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	13	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	5	$252	200	200	+0	Yes	$0	06-12 19:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$248	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-28 12:05
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$248	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-04 20:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$241	201	201	+0	Yes	+$0	06-05 12:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$240	200	200	+0	Yes	$0	06-08 07:16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	13	$230	200	200	+0	open	—	06-16 17:27
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	2	$212	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-08 15:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-02 15:38
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	200	200	+0	No	-$54	07-13 18:13
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	2	$204	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-12 13:25
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	9	$195	404	404	+0	Yes	-$7	05-25 15:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:13:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x2db729…
07-13 18:12:53	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x49b84b…
07-12 12:29:04	Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	74	74¢	$55	0xe32c83…
07-12 07:56:29	Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	74	74¢	$55	0x3f47d1…
07-11 10:50:04	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	48¢	$96	0x8abf7f…
07-10 20:49:37	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x9467ae…
07-10 08:11:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	57	83¢	$47	0xc65102…
07-10 07:42:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	57	83¢	$47	0xb9b0cd…
07-09 09:57:41	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xacacc7…
07-08 17:41:56	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x9e0dd5…
07-08 17:30:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x4af1fe…
07-08 15:26:56	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa31f40…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 14:51:55	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xed6c15…
07-07 13:40:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xa798bc…
07-07 13:40:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x4a5733…
07-06 15:10:37	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	SELL	107	49¢	$52	0x36f421…
07-06 14:43:58	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x258cfe…
07-06 14:40:11	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	SELL	45	48¢	$22	0x0bdb56…
07-06 14:40:05	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	BUY	45	48¢	$22	0xef1d37…
07-06 01:56:25	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	71¢	$34	0xfb07da…
07-06 01:15:56	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	71¢	$12	0x14c60e…
07-06 00:49:40	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	71¢	$45	0x42cb26…
07-05 12:01:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	SELL	61	87¢	$53	0x35e860…
07-05 12:01:20	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	61	87¢	$53	0x6a7190…
07-05 02:17:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x8a8f1d…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x0da0dc…
07-05 01:02:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0xbb9f4a…
07-04 20:12:13	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x08f7b2…
07-04 20:07:31	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xf55d34…
07-02 19:01:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	96	26¢	$25	0x1a0100…
07-02 14:24:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xf3e728…
07-02 14:00:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	104	27¢	$28	0xdc37ca…
07-02 13:26:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xe142db…
07-02 01:34:47	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	65	74¢	$48	0x99e23e…
07-02 01:02:01	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	65	74¢	$48	0xca9421…
07-01 10:26:26	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	75	65¢	$49	0x3a6d5f…
07-01 07:14:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xaa9911…
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9a6525…
07-01 06:20:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	75	65¢	$49	0xf1f651…
06-30 02:52:34	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	151	25¢	$38	0x5e3827…
06-30 02:38:16	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	151	25¢	$38	0x5929b5…
06-29 22:40:22	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xa34746…
06-29 22:03:49	Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	77	38¢	$29	0x6e5785…
06-29 22:03:04	Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	No	BUY	77	38¢	$29	0x5c0dd1…
06-29 20:26:47	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x6ef48c…
06-29 14:50:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xa3b358…
06-29 14:49:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0xfd4aa1…
06-29 12:36:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x74aecd…
06-29 12:35:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xe0fa03…
06-28 21:49:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	27	59¢	$16	0x2f56b7…
06-28 21:45:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	173	59¢	$102	0x18a740…
06-28 20:46:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xa59393…
06-27 08:34:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xc90c07…
06-27 08:34:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xb7eb04…
06-27 08:34:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	16	72¢	$11	0xb328cc…
06-27 08:34:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x98a846…
06-27 08:34:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	104	72¢	$75	0x8b2dc6…
06-27 08:34:01	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x6f1b30…
06-27 08:33:35	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x185964…
06-26 13:07:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x69347b…
06-26 12:00:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xc3f62a…
06-26 09:22:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x5af8ae…
06-26 09:18:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x4c6420…
06-26 08:26:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	85	47¢	$40	0xbd0176…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0xf73f2f…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0xf20a1d…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	52	47¢	$24	0x6d97e9…
06-26 07:53:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x0c24d0…
06-26 06:08:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	88¢	$132	0xedd525…
06-26 06:08:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xbb89dc…
06-26 06:08:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe90fa4…
06-26 05:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	206	51¢	$105	0x767cd3…
06-26 04:34:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	110	39¢	$43	0xea117a…
06-26 04:34:43	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x376916…
06-26 04:34:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0x78a9bf…
06-26 04:24:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	130	39¢	$51	0x1dbbf1…
06-26 04:24:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x19e821…
06-25 21:06:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	206	51¢	$105	0x271594…
06-25 12:00:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	81	90¢	$73	0xda0a6f…
06-25 11:56:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x774c9a…
06-25 11:55:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	119	90¢	$108	0x0c7869…
06-25 11:44:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xd726ae…
06-24 15:16:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	65	75¢	$49	0x7bd92a…
06-24 15:07:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x40345e…
06-24 15:07:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	130	75¢	$97	0x26079b…
06-24 13:27:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x234d47…
06-20 22:24:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	160	38¢	$61	0xeb54c8…
06-20 21:32:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x1e9f78…
06-19 07:03:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x991cf5…
06-19 02:12:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x0a635e…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-18 07:46:52	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x31c3ed…
06-17 21:15:02	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xdffdac…
06-17 13:26:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0x0612ad…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-17 01:12:13	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	159	74¢	$118	0x26504b…
06-17 00:08:50	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0x3b06ce…
06-16 23:53:14	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	36	74¢	$27	0x0b6fbe…
06-16 17:27:14	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	70¢	$38	0x188abd…