Sturdy-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

137

Trades

1,479

lifetime

Volume

$20.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-29 14:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 100% +$12

Other

20% 100% +$2

Politics

19% — —

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+15	$10	48¢	$7	$-3	06-20 22:24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	-50	$-14	0¢	$-0	+$14	06-02 13:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	14¢	$0	$-0	05-31 15:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	9	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	06-29 12:36
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$850	800	785	+15	open	—	06-20 22:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$658	606	606	+0	open	—	06-28 21:49
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	11	$623	600	802	-202	open	—	06-13 06:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$611	400	400	+0	open	—	06-25 12:00
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	5	$492	400	400	+0	open	—	06-09 15:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	9	$488	400	400	+0	open	—	06-26 08:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$416	400	400	+0	open	—	05-22 23:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$320	400	400	+0	open	—	05-29 18:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$308	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 17:21
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	13	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	5	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 19:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$248	200	200	+0	open	—	05-28 12:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$241	201	201	+0	open	—	06-05 12:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 15:38
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	2	$204	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 13:25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	8	$172	150	150	+0	open	—	06-10 11:04
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$126	129	129	+0	open	—	05-30 04:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	2	$118	200	200	+0	open	—	06-29 14:50
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$114	146	146	+0	open	—	06-26 04:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$105	82	82	+0	open	—	06-02 14:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$76	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 15:10
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$73	61	61	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 22:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	30	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-31 15:16
will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	2	$59	82	82	+0	open	—	06-15 19:48
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	1	$50	200	0	+200	open	—	06-05 07:14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$47	57	57	+0	open	—	06-09 13:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 14:50:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xa3b358…
06-29 14:49:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0xfd4aa1…
06-29 12:36:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x74aecd…
06-29 12:35:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xe0fa03…
06-28 21:49:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	27	59¢	$16	0x2f56b7…
06-28 21:45:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	173	59¢	$102	0x18a740…
06-28 20:46:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xa59393…
06-26 13:07:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x69347b…
06-26 12:00:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xc3f62a…
06-26 09:22:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x5af8ae…
06-26 09:18:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x4c6420…
06-26 08:26:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	85	47¢	$40	0xbd0176…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0xf73f2f…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0xf20a1d…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	52	47¢	$24	0x6d97e9…
06-26 07:53:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x0c24d0…
06-26 06:08:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	88¢	$132	0xedd525…
06-26 06:08:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xbb89dc…
06-26 06:08:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe90fa4…
06-26 05:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	206	51¢	$105	0x767cd3…
06-26 04:34:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	110	39¢	$43	0xea117a…
06-26 04:34:43	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x376916…
06-26 04:34:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0x78a9bf…
06-26 04:24:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	130	39¢	$51	0x1dbbf1…
06-26 04:24:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x19e821…
06-25 21:06:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	206	51¢	$105	0x271594…
06-25 12:00:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	81	90¢	$73	0xda0a6f…
06-25 11:56:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x774c9a…
06-25 11:55:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	119	90¢	$108	0x0c7869…
06-25 11:44:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xd726ae…
06-24 15:16:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	65	75¢	$49	0x7bd92a…
06-24 15:07:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x40345e…
06-24 15:07:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	130	75¢	$97	0x26079b…
06-24 13:27:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x234d47…
06-20 22:24:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	160	38¢	$61	0xeb54c8…
06-20 21:32:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x1e9f78…
06-19 07:03:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x991cf5…
06-19 02:12:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x0a635e…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-17 13:26:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0x0612ad…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-16 02:38:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	73	65¢	$47	0x0e35e4…
06-16 02:32:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	30	65¢	$20	0xdfe229…
06-16 02:32:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	82	65¢	$53	0xd8c7d5…
06-15 21:53:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xa56f41…
06-15 19:48:45	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	SELL	82	28¢	$23	0x327f51…
06-15 05:27:37	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	BUY	82	43¢	$35	0x807b2a…
06-13 06:05:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	202	42¢	$85	0x7acf55…
06-12 19:03:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	60	63¢	$38	0xd43d38…
06-12 19:02:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xfe4972…
06-12 19:02:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	75	63¢	$47	0x2e35a8…
06-12 19:02:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	60	63¢	$38	0xd0d138…
06-12 19:02:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x038923…
06-12 17:05:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0x4c3721…
06-12 16:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x52e979…
06-12 14:55:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0x9a5763…
06-12 14:54:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	182	44¢	$80	0x0c7b22…
06-12 13:43:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	182	44¢	$80	0xecf15d…
06-12 13:43:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x1081f4…
06-12 13:25:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x5414f7…
06-12 05:42:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xb2d53b…
06-10 11:04:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	22	62¢	$14	0x67974f…
06-10 11:04:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x5a1dce…
06-10 11:04:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	11	62¢	$7	0x2590ec…
06-10 11:04:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0x229044…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x99246a…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	62¢	$27	0x51eb7a…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x516827…
06-09 15:14:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xbab4bd…
06-09 15:14:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	197	62¢	$122	0xf1b866…
06-09 13:59:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x669c8f…
06-09 13:35:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	57	29¢	$17	0x377bdc…
06-08 08:24:42	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	57	54¢	$31	0x7ec59e…
06-08 07:16:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	3	59¢	$1	0x91720a…
06-08 07:16:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	197	60¢	$118	0x7920d3…
06-08 07:16:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x755f88…
06-06 15:23:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xb07a0f…
06-06 14:37:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xfae4c3…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	201	60¢	$121	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	201	60¢	$121	0x8e4fd2…
06-05 07:14:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x1844fe…
06-04 22:27:39	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x4cfd17…
06-04 22:27:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0xc478e7…
06-04 22:27:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xcfc551…
06-04 22:27:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x8bbb4a…
06-04 22:27:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x3906f1…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xeb0696…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	32	65¢	$21	0xe3938d…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0xb6243c…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0xaba72d…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0x972991…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	42	65¢	$27	0x7de43a…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	22	65¢	$15	0x5ea52f…
06-04 22:27:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x601b99…
06-03 20:13:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x18c875…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	60¢	$37	0xd9512a…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0xbfbb16…
06-02 15:38:47	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xb3e710…
06-02 14:03:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	SELL	82	64¢	$52	0x848387…
06-02 13:45:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	BUY	82	64¢	$52	0x230f74…