Sturdy-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

137

Trades

1,507

lifetime

Volume

$22.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 100% +$12

Other

23% 100% +$2

Politics

21% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+15	$10	40¢	$6	$-4	06-20 22:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+0	$0	29¢	$0	+$0	05-31 15:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	11	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-01 07:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$968	806	806	+0	open	—	07-05 01:02
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$850	800	785	+15	open	—	06-20 22:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	7	$760	600	600	+0	open	—	07-07 13:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	11	$623	600	802	-202	open	—	06-13 06:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$611	400	400	+0	open	—	06-25 12:00
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	5	$492	400	400	+0	open	—	06-09 15:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	9	$488	400	400	+0	open	—	06-26 08:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$416	400	400	+0	open	—	05-22 23:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$320	400	400	+0	open	—	05-29 18:39
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	13	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	5	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 19:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$248	200	200	+0	open	—	05-28 12:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$241	201	201	+0	open	—	06-05 12:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:16
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	2	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 15:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 15:38
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	200	200	+0	open	—	07-13 18:13
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	2	$204	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 13:25
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	2	$192	200	200	+0	open	—	07-11 10:50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	8	$172	150	150	+0	open	—	06-10 11:04
will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	5	$151	155	155	+0	open	—	07-06 15:10
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$126	129	129	+0	open	—	05-30 04:45
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$124	100	100	+0	open	—	07-13 18:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	2	$118	200	200	+0	open	—	06-29 14:50
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$114	146	146	+0	open	—	06-26 04:34
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	2	$106	61	61	+0	open	—	07-05 12:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$105	82	82	+0	open	—	06-02 14:03
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	2	$98	75	75	+0	open	—	07-01 10:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:13:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x2db729…
07-13 18:12:53	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x49b84b…
07-11 10:50:04	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	48¢	$96	0x8abf7f…
07-10 20:49:37	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x9467ae…
07-09 09:57:41	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xacacc7…
07-08 15:26:56	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa31f40…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 14:51:55	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xed6c15…
07-07 13:40:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xa798bc…
07-07 13:40:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x4a5733…
07-06 15:10:37	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	SELL	107	49¢	$52	0x36f421…
07-06 14:43:58	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x258cfe…
07-06 14:40:11	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	SELL	45	48¢	$22	0x0bdb56…
07-06 14:40:05	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	BUY	45	48¢	$22	0xef1d37…
07-06 01:56:25	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	71¢	$34	0xfb07da…
07-06 01:15:56	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	71¢	$12	0x14c60e…
07-06 00:49:40	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	64	71¢	$45	0x42cb26…
07-05 12:01:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	SELL	61	87¢	$53	0x35e860…
07-05 12:01:20	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	61	87¢	$53	0x6a7190…
07-05 02:17:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x8a8f1d…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x0da0dc…
07-05 01:02:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0xbb9f4a…
07-02 14:24:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xf3e728…
07-01 10:26:26	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	75	65¢	$49	0x3a6d5f…
07-01 07:14:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xaa9911…
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9a6525…
07-01 06:20:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	75	65¢	$49	0xf1f651…
06-29 14:50:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xa3b358…
06-29 14:49:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0xfd4aa1…
06-29 12:36:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x74aecd…
06-29 12:35:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xe0fa03…
06-28 21:49:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	27	59¢	$16	0x2f56b7…
06-28 21:45:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	173	59¢	$102	0x18a740…
06-28 20:46:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xa59393…
06-26 13:07:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x69347b…
06-26 12:00:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xc3f62a…
06-26 09:22:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x5af8ae…
06-26 09:18:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x4c6420…
06-26 08:26:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	85	47¢	$40	0xbd0176…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0xf73f2f…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0xf20a1d…
06-26 08:02:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	52	47¢	$24	0x6d97e9…
06-26 07:53:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x0c24d0…
06-26 06:08:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	88¢	$132	0xedd525…
06-26 06:08:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xbb89dc…
06-26 06:08:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xe90fa4…
06-26 05:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	206	51¢	$105	0x767cd3…
06-26 04:34:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	110	39¢	$43	0xea117a…
06-26 04:34:43	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x376916…
06-26 04:34:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0x78a9bf…
06-26 04:24:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	130	39¢	$51	0x1dbbf1…
06-26 04:24:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x19e821…
06-25 21:06:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	206	51¢	$105	0x271594…
06-25 12:00:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	81	90¢	$73	0xda0a6f…
06-25 11:56:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x774c9a…
06-25 11:55:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	119	90¢	$108	0x0c7869…
06-25 11:44:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xd726ae…
06-24 15:16:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	65	75¢	$49	0x7bd92a…
06-24 15:07:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x40345e…
06-24 15:07:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	130	75¢	$97	0x26079b…
06-24 13:27:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x234d47…
06-20 22:24:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	160	38¢	$61	0xeb54c8…
06-20 21:32:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x1e9f78…
06-19 07:03:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0x991cf5…
06-19 02:12:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x0a635e…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-17 13:26:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0x0612ad…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-16 02:38:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	73	65¢	$47	0x0e35e4…
06-16 02:32:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	30	65¢	$20	0xdfe229…
06-16 02:32:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	82	65¢	$53	0xd8c7d5…
06-15 21:53:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xa56f41…
06-15 19:48:45	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	SELL	82	28¢	$23	0x327f51…
06-15 05:27:37	will spirit reach the grand final at iem cologne major 2026	Yes	BUY	82	43¢	$35	0x807b2a…
06-13 06:05:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	202	42¢	$85	0x7acf55…
06-12 19:03:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	60	63¢	$38	0xd43d38…
06-12 19:02:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xfe4972…
06-12 19:02:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	75	63¢	$47	0x2e35a8…
06-12 19:02:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	60	63¢	$38	0xd0d138…
06-12 19:02:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x038923…
06-12 17:05:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0x4c3721…
06-12 16:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x52e979…
06-12 14:55:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0x9a5763…
06-12 14:54:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	182	44¢	$80	0x0c7b22…
06-12 13:43:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	182	44¢	$80	0xecf15d…
06-12 13:43:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x1081f4…
06-12 13:25:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x5414f7…
06-12 05:42:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xb2d53b…
06-10 11:04:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	22	62¢	$14	0x67974f…
06-10 11:04:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x5a1dce…
06-10 11:04:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	11	62¢	$7	0x2590ec…
06-10 11:04:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0x229044…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x99246a…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	62¢	$27	0x51eb7a…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x516827…
06-09 15:14:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xbab4bd…
06-09 15:14:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	197	62¢	$122	0xf1b866…
06-09 13:59:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x669c8f…
06-09 13:35:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	57	29¢	$17	0x377bdc…
06-08 08:24:42	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	57	54¢	$31	0x7ec59e…