Sturdy-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

137

Trades

1,412

lifetime

Volume

$15.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-09 18:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 100% +$12

Politics

12% — —

Other

10% 100% +$2

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes		-50	$-14	26¢	$-13	+$1	06-02 13:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+0	$0	18¢	$0	+$0	05-31 15:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	5	$492	400	400	+0	open	—	06-09 15:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$416	400	400	+0	open	—	05-22 23:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$362	400	400	+0	open	—	06-03 20:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$320	400	400	+0	open	—	05-29 18:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$308	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 17:21
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	13	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	05-29 15:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$248	200	200	+0	open	—	05-28 12:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$241	201	201	+0	open	—	06-05 12:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 15:38
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$126	129	129	+0	open	—	05-30 04:45
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$105	82	82	+0	open	—	06-02 14:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$76	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 15:10
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$73	61	61	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	2	$67	64	64	+0	open	—	05-30 21:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 22:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	30	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-31 15:16
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	1	$50	200	0	+200	open	—	06-05 07:14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$47	57	57	+0	open	—	06-09 13:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$24	100	100	+0	open	—	05-21 04:22
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	2	$20	17	17	+0	open	—	05-14 19:59
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-14 19:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-17 07:57
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-14 19:37
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-17 07:19
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-14 19:43
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-15 14:42
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-16 03:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x516827…
06-09 15:14:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0xbab4bd…
06-09 15:14:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	197	62¢	$122	0xf1b866…
06-09 13:59:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x669c8f…
06-09 13:35:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	57	29¢	$17	0x377bdc…
06-08 08:24:42	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	57	54¢	$31	0x7ec59e…
06-08 07:16:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	3	59¢	$1	0x91720a…
06-08 07:16:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	197	60¢	$118	0x7920d3…
06-08 07:16:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x755f88…
06-06 15:23:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xb07a0f…
06-06 14:37:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xfae4c3…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	201	60¢	$121	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	201	60¢	$121	0x8e4fd2…
06-05 07:14:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x1844fe…
06-04 22:27:39	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x4cfd17…
06-04 22:27:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0xc478e7…
06-04 22:27:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xcfc551…
06-04 22:27:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x8bbb4a…
06-04 22:27:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x3906f1…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xeb0696…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	32	65¢	$21	0xe3938d…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0xb6243c…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0xaba72d…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0x972991…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	42	65¢	$27	0x7de43a…
06-04 22:27:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	22	65¢	$15	0x5ea52f…
06-04 22:27:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x601b99…
06-03 20:13:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x18c875…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	60¢	$37	0xd9512a…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0xbfbb16…
06-02 15:38:47	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xb3e710…
06-02 14:03:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	SELL	82	64¢	$52	0x848387…
06-02 13:45:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	BUY	82	64¢	$52	0x230f74…
06-02 13:27:20	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x2145e0…
06-01 17:21:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	89	77¢	$68	0x07fe9e…
06-01 16:59:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	111	77¢	$86	0x7343d4…
06-01 15:57:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x19f126…
06-01 12:25:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xbb8566…
05-31 22:52:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	52	62¢	$32	0x660a4e…
05-31 22:52:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x31b25f…
05-31 22:47:14	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	146	62¢	$91	0x8b67a2…
05-31 22:14:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x7cbdb4…
05-31 15:16:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0xfa157e…
05-31 15:04:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xf1590b…
05-31 15:04:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x59fb0b…
05-31 15:04:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x49f6a6…
05-31 15:04:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xfd9d25…
05-31 15:04:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xd8997c…
05-31 15:04:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xd77c19…
05-31 15:04:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xbc8b68…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xce03eb…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xc703a3…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xae0333…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xa77508…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xa10d58…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x9333b0…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x7a21a3…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x7996e7…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x7840fe…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x537c97…
05-31 15:04:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x35e226…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xf530cd…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xf13011…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xc7b95f…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xadb4e0…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x90e6c5…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x7c0577…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x7979e4…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x5bad40…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x2f0f6a…
05-31 15:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x20601e…
05-31 15:03:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x91212f…
05-30 22:57:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	85¢	$51	0x89c5e6…
05-30 22:40:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	85¢	$119	0xd4f2a4…
05-30 21:41:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2145e0…
05-30 21:33:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	64	52¢	$33	0x46942c…
05-30 18:09:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	64	52¢	$33	0x4fb8a4…
05-30 04:45:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	129	49¢	$63	0x646679…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	129	49¢	$63	0x05b826…
05-29 18:39:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0xa2c4ff…
05-29 18:39:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0x8c0d59…
05-29 15:28:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0x4d356c…
05-29 14:33:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x15627f…
05-28 12:05:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x13c4dc…
05-28 12:05:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x6507a8…
05-26 14:18:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xfee00b…
05-26 13:55:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xed1626…
05-25 15:10:14	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x53916d…
05-25 15:05:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0x026627…
05-22 23:57:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa711af…
05-22 22:07:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xbf39af…
05-22 22:02:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x2889a3…
05-22 20:24:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x8c649f…
05-21 21:12:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x452a8c…
05-21 15:53:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x25ee9c…
05-21 04:22:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x80d16e…
05-21 04:16:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x202b24…
05-18 06:28:54	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x028f4d…
05-18 01:57:45	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x7d0e8c…
05-18 01:19:08	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xcae4ec…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Greedy-Inhabitant 0x58bc…5d8f	961	$6.36K	981	06-09 18:05
Likely-Civilisation 0xca85…0f4a	955	$7.43K	982	06-09 18:05
Distinct-Drug 0x218f…91f7	953	$7.21K	984	06-10 00:03
Double-Modernity-Atrium 0xbb09…fd18	942	$7.44K	979	06-06 18:35
Unruly-Raisin 0x4070…cedf	901	$6.43K	930	06-09 18:05
Ethical-Kitty 0x77bf…5b94	897	$15.0K	926	06-09 18:05
Ironclad-Midnight 0x8c4e…fdd8	897	$11.0K	921	06-06 18:36
Blaring-Depression 0xf628…7ff9	895	$11.8K	922	06-09 18:05