Phony-Bottling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$882

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$12.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$439

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-18

last 10-26 19:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Politics

80% 14% +$2,822

Other

8% 44% -$84

Sports

8% 40% -$190

Crypto

2% 0% -$242

Tech

1% 0% -$91

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+5,453	$713	5¢	$273	-$440	10-22 23:08
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,727	$155	4¢	$69	-$86	10-22 14:47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	+2,927	$96	2¢	$59	-$37	10-26 19:18
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	+1,827	$258	1¢	$21	-$237	10-21 21:59
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	+2,718	$100	1¢	$18	-$82	10-21 22:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	4	$2.0K	2,678	2,019	+660	No	+$1,847	05-25 23:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	3	$1.9K	2,728	2,728	+0	No	+$1,754	05-23 12:02
iran closes its airspace by june 8	6	$1.8K	18,201	1,962	+16,239	Yes	+$1,386	06-11 22:36
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	4	$713	5,453	0	+5,453	open	—	10-22 23:08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	4	$620	6,454	6,454	+0	Yes	-$180	10-12 08:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	3	$399	5,083	0	+5,083	Yes	-$399	08-01 16:40
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	3	$388	3,312	3,312	+0	No	-$249	07-15 04:51
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	5	$367	7,279	0	+7,279	Yes	-$367	10-12 18:00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$298	1,772	1,772	+0	No	-$2	06-10 20:24
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	2	$287	1,184	1,184	+0	No	+$7	06-11 09:27
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	1	$258	1,827	0	+1,827	open	—	10-21 21:59
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$227	398	335	+63	No	+$46	07-19 21:37
israel closes its airspace by june 11	4	$223	4,226	0	+4,226	No	-$223	06-11 22:34
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$223	3,138	0	+3,138	No	-$223	07-19 21:21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	11	$222	9,869	9,869	+0	No	+$0	06-11 22:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	2	$219	5,225	5,225	+0	Yes	-$185	10-18 18:05
israel closes its airspace by june 10	6	$184	5,884	5,884	+0	No	-$173	06-11 05:18
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	1	$155	1,727	0	+1,727	open	—	10-22 14:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	2	$138	6,011	6,011	+0	Yes	-$114	07-26 03:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$126	15,433	15,433	+0	No	-$34	05-26 13:39
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$111	515	515	+0	No	+$11	06-09 16:32
Iran leadership change by October 31?	1	$100	2,718	0	+2,718	open	—	10-21 22:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	1	$96	2,927	0	+2,927	open	—	10-26 19:18
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	2	$94	1,998	260	+1,739	Yes	-$79	06-11 22:36
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	7	$94	22,374	12,368	+10,005	No	-$37	06-06 20:32
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	4	$84	5,986	0	+5,986	No	-$84	05-27 21:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$82	584	584	+0	No	-$12	06-09 16:32
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$71	2,395	2,395	+0	No	-$12	05-19 10:13
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$58	909	909	+0	No	-$22	05-22 23:30
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	2	$58	1,002	1,002	+0	No	-$2	05-19 05:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:18:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	2,927	3¢	$96	0x6f1893…
10-22 23:08:41	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,313	12¢	$154	0xff5329…
10-22 14:47:14	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,727	9¢	$155	0xe61d66…
10-22 05:53:13	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,595	9¢	$144	0x6e4302…
10-21 22:13:21	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,581	16¢	$258	0x22a921…
10-21 22:05:00	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	964	16¢	$158	0x950ac3…
10-21 22:03:12	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,718	4¢	$100	0x2b8a11…
10-21 21:59:17	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	1,827	14¢	$258	0xd5997e…
10-18 20:17:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	560	3¢	$17	0x6888f7…
10-18 18:05:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	SELL	5,225	0¢	$17	0x761395…
10-16 10:46:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	5,225	4¢	$202	0x253943…
10-12 18:00:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,331	3¢	$46	0xee9838…
10-12 08:09:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,697	4¢	$70	0xa35ed2…
10-12 08:09:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	3,509	2¢	$70	0x62e93e…
10-10 22:43:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	265	7¢	$19	0x56cbc1…
10-10 22:43:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	3,509	6¢	$200	0x1fca23…
10-10 22:39:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	2,334	6¢	$150	0xf0bcdf…
10-10 22:39:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	2,946	5¢	$150	0xd3897b…
10-09 22:17:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,651	5¢	$83	0xce2537…
10-09 22:15:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,946	7¢	$200	0x52522a…
10-09 22:14:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	5,143	1¢	$30	0x597a8e…
08-01 16:40:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	2,410	4¢	$100	0x06fbc4…
08-01 15:33:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	1,119	9¢	$100	0xe12e48…
08-01 14:13:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	1,555	13¢	$200	0xb3acd5…
07-26 04:41:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	389	3¢	$12	0x79496c…
07-26 03:55:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	6,011	0¢	$12	0xb25f1f…
07-25 10:42:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	6,011	2¢	$126	0x649a91…
07-19 21:37:37	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	63	38¢	$24	0x8693f6…
07-19 21:21:10	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x57c46c…
07-19 15:31:10	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,213	8¢	$95	0x37fc11…
07-19 14:47:22	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0xab935b…
07-19 05:57:58	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,823	7¢	$126	0xbd9fd1…
07-19 05:57:07	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	335	41¢	$137	0x648533…
07-15 04:52:31	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	335	20¢	$66	0xf98d97…
07-15 04:51:17	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	3,312	2¢	$70	0x7fdbd6…
07-14 05:21:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	621	5¢	$31	0x44855a…
07-13 22:20:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2,690	11¢	$287	0xf528eb…
06-11 22:36:24	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	7,000	0¢	$7	0x6c3ff7…
06-11 22:36:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	SELL	260	3¢	$7	0x47682b…
06-11 22:34:45	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	508	1¢	$6	0x0e04fb…
06-11 22:34:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,500	0¢	$5	0xfed4a7…
06-11 16:30:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	BUY	1,998	4¢	$87	0xe4e114…
06-11 09:28:07	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	2,933	5¢	$142	0xc62bcc…
06-11 09:27:33	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	1,184	12¢	$147	0x49022c…
06-11 09:27:06	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	133	5¢	$6	0xdabeae…
06-11 05:18:48	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	SELL	5,884	0¢	$6	0x06db4a…
06-10 20:25:01	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	582	4¢	$26	0x713767…
06-10 20:24:52	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	651	11¢	$70	0x9b482e…
06-10 20:24:24	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,176	8¢	$99	0xf3b079…
06-10 06:07:33	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	219	4¢	$10	0xb819db…
06-10 06:06:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x1cf622…
06-10 05:56:13	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	639	3¢	$20	0x618ce4…
06-10 05:54:36	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	437	3¢	$13	0xe6424d…
06-10 05:17:31	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	1,184	12¢	$140	0x6db14c…
06-10 05:04:43	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,176	8¢	$100	0x2c99c3…
06-09 16:35:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	360	1¢	$5	0x331f53…
06-09 16:35:10	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	5,301	0¢	$5	0x16fbcd…
06-09 16:34:46	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$1	0x00baf5…
06-09 16:33:37	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	4,006	3¢	$110	0xa24599…
06-09 16:33:16	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	3,161	1¢	$30	0x7e395c…
06-09 16:32:48	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	595	8¢	$49	0x03ad1c…
06-09 16:32:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	584	6¢	$35	0xd709f5…
06-09 16:32:37	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	515	12¢	$61	0x9e86c1…
06-09 15:46:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	584	8¢	$47	0xc93f2d…
06-08 00:30:24	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	7,500	0¢	$30	0xa77525…
06-07 23:30:13	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	595	8¢	$50	0x43d0ad…
06-07 23:30:06	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	515	10¢	$50	0x11b2c9…
06-07 23:22:03	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	5,301	0¢	$20	0x3cf4af…
06-07 21:37:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	367	6¢	$21	0x4d5198…
06-07 21:36:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,373	5¢	$70	0x7288fc…
06-07 20:45:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1,962	81¢	$1,590	0xa98845…
06-06 22:19:07	Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher?	Yes	SELL	137	0¢	$0	0x21cd42…
06-06 20:33:03	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1,962	4¢	$77	0xc710ca…
06-06 20:32:45	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	BUY	10,005	0¢	$20	0x4b990c…
05-27 21:54:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,408	1¢	$17	0x4be777…
05-27 21:54:25	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	SELL	8,905	0¢	$18	0x220211…
05-27 21:53:06	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,930	1¢	$23	0x0adba6…
05-27 21:52:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,741	1¢	$24	0xf65834…
05-26 21:15:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	599	2¢	$13	0x88e9fa…
05-26 21:15:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	819	2¢	$13	0xfb1755…
05-26 21:12:01	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,049	2¢	$31	0x07dc0e…
05-26 21:11:38	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	SELL	3,463	0¢	$10	0xc79d05…
05-26 21:11:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,378	2¢	$22	0x6877f2…
05-26 13:40:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	615	1¢	$9	0x1f4875…
05-26 13:40:14	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	BUY	1,703	1¢	$10	0xb6e34e…
05-26 13:40:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	667	1¢	$10	0x1a6bb5…
05-26 13:39:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$30	0xadb522…
05-25 23:27:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	660	4¢	$28	0x75c284…
05-25 23:24:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,629	1¢	$21	0xc63532…
05-25 23:24:28	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,229	0¢	$9	0xbdc1fc…
05-25 23:10:26	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x528cc6…
05-25 23:10:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0xdb9298…
05-25 23:09:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7,500	0¢	$30	0x2135b7…
05-25 23:06:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,286	1¢	$60	0xe4f4be…
05-25 22:58:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	2,019	95¢	$1,922	0x1f6fe3…
05-25 22:47:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	304	11¢	$35	0x2382af…
05-25 22:46:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,802	1¢	$25	0x71de44…
05-25 22:45:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	417	3¢	$12	0x3aab09…
05-25 18:49:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	1,714	1¢	$12	0x0e9730…
05-24 20:49:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	229	1¢	$2	0xaa2fdd…