Orderly-Fennel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$709

Unrealized P&L

-$3.74K

Hit rate

89.3%

Resolved

219

Trades

1,824

lifetime

Volume

$1.45M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$795

Open exposure

$6.00K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-27 07:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 122 days

Categories

Other

80% 99% +$3,273

Politics

18% 78% -$4,050

Crypto

1% 100% +$62

Sports

1% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14,192	$6,047	27¢	$3.8K	-$2,215	09-28 10:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,242	$1,207	99¢	$1.2K	+$18	10-17 04:38
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,363	$824	20¢	$279	-$545	08-26 13:35
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,600	$678	11¢	$273	-$405	09-28 06:55
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,000	$589	8¢	$255	-$334	09-28 08:07
will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	+500	$395	26¢	$132	-$262	08-22 07:46
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$8	12¢	$0	+$8	07-07 19:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	166	$144.9K	61,054	86,235	-25,181	No	-$97	04-26 08:20
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	223	$70.6K	39,152	35,455	+3,697	Yes	+$125	08-18 19:11
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	140	$50.8K	26,917	24,589	+2,328	No	+$98	03-22 22:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	52	$23.3K	17,993	6,000	+11,993	No	+$343	06-29 06:05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	66	$23.0K	15,462	10,769	+4,692	Yes	+$590	08-18 18:22
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 160 179	1	$20.3K	20,339	0	+20,339	No	+$20	03-18 06:31
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 120 139	4	$20.3K	20,315	0	+20,315	No	+$20	03-16 18:09
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 200 219	11	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$50	03-18 18:43
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	2	$19.6K	19,590	0	+19,590	No	+$39	04-18 08:45
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 240 259	1	$19.5K	19,476	0	+19,476	No	+$19	03-21 10:44
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 160 179	12	$19.3K	19,387	0	+19,387	No	+$39	04-07 23:15
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 340 359	1	$19.3K	19,349	0	+19,349	No	+$19	04-07 03:44
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 220 239	5	$19.3K	19,330	0	+19,330	No	+$19	04-06 10:16
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 160 179	3	$19.2K	19,250	0	+19,250	No	+$19	04-04 02:54
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	1	$19.2K	19,243	0	+19,243	No	+$19	04-03 06:05
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	7	$19.1K	19,147	0	+19,147	No	+$37	04-01 11:47
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	1	$17.8K	17,835	0	+17,835	No	+$36	03-26 10:48
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 0 39	18	$17.8K	17,774	0	+17,774	No	+$18	04-17 10:15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	8	$17.7K	17,748	0	+17,748	No	+$18	04-26 19:50
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	28	$16.2K	16,214	0	+16,214	No	+$63	04-02 06:19
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 280 299	8	$15.9K	16,054	0	+16,054	No	+$165	03-11 19:49
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 360 379	8	$15.6K	15,620	0	+15,620	No	+$16	03-26 22:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	10	$15.5K	15,576	0	+15,576	No	+$72	05-29 21:09
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$15.4K	15,395	0	+15,395	No	+$31	05-21 19:21
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	5	$15.3K	15,355	0	+15,355	No	+$23	05-21 07:15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	4	$15.3K	15,300	0	+15,300	No	+$22	05-17 13:21
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$15.2K	15,180	0	+15,180	No	+$15	05-14 20:04
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$15.2K	15,179	0	+15,179	No	+$15	05-13 06:50
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$15.1K	15,160	0	+15,160	No	+$15	05-13 00:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$15.1K	15,150	0	+15,150	No	+$30	05-12 00:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:45:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	787	100¢	$786	0xf34063…
10-26 10:58:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	3,322	100¢	$3,319	0xdc5537…
10-25 18:32:44	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	791	100¢	$791	0xca8591…
10-25 18:32:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x3e3f65…
10-25 18:32:00	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	527	100¢	$526	0x16dfbd…
10-24 08:51:57	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	3,315	100¢	$3,312	0xe13d7c…
10-23 16:34:51	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1,235	100¢	$1,234	0x14e3df…
10-23 16:19:29	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x72bc6e…
10-23 16:19:27	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	240	100¢	$240	0xa58104…
10-22 14:00:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,338	100¢	$1,334	0xbaf752…
10-21 06:23:42	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3,306	100¢	$3,303	0x88e528…
10-19 13:46:17	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	2,036	100¢	$2,034	0xa97a1c…
10-19 06:35:23	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1,266	100¢	$1,264	0xd80c93…
10-18 16:33:21	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3,299	100¢	$3,296	0x3c3b30…
10-17 11:40:17	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3,296	100¢	$3,293	0xc1986c…
10-17 04:38:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xd51180…
10-17 04:38:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0x43cf1f…
10-17 04:38:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$972	0x2f7916…
10-15 17:58:17	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,036	100¢	$1,034	0xecaf72…
10-15 12:43:11	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x601d56…
10-15 12:11:28	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xf8af48…
10-15 10:59:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on October 15?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xed8327…
10-15 10:14:53	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xeae5e0…
10-15 09:53:25	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x7cc562…
10-14 18:39:49	will bitcoin reach 88k on october 14 2026	No	BUY	771	100¢	$770	0xb6de6e…
10-14 16:42:12	will bitcoin reach 88k on october 14 2026	No	BUY	229	100¢	$229	0xa68e82…
10-14 16:42:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,940	100¢	$1,937	0x82cbe8…
10-14 16:41:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$59	0xe1b5c6…
10-14 11:46:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on October 14?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3c2041…
10-14 11:46:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on October 14?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x6b64d0…
10-14 11:44:58	ethereum above 2900 on october 16 2026	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x0250f7…
10-14 11:44:34	ethereum above 2800 on october 15 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcab4e5…
10-14 11:43:05	ethereum above 2700 on october 14 2026	No	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x47da0a…
10-14 11:42:50	ethereum above 2700 on october 14 2026	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x6d85b2…
10-14 11:42:13	ethereum above 2700 on october 14 2026	No	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0x19f9dc…
10-13 01:48:14	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	4,480	100¢	$4,476	0xe75fa7…
10-12 07:34:58	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	4,476	100¢	$4,472	0xa01097…
10-11 17:55:18	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	4,472	100¢	$4,468	0x19e293…
10-09 13:56:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6260b2…
10-08 21:19:14	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	4,463	100¢	$4,454	0x1b3968…
10-08 09:06:57	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	371	100¢	$370	0x25a155…
10-08 09:02:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x100aaf…
10-08 08:18:14	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x032f6f…
10-08 08:17:11	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x046026…
10-08 08:04:27	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2,057	100¢	$2,055	0xcf63cc…
10-08 03:28:25	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	344	100¢	$343	0x955e4e…
10-08 02:36:07	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x5389cc…
10-08 00:53:22	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0x1daf98…
10-08 00:00:50	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xa3fa8e…
10-07 22:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	386	100¢	$385	0x3561e1…
10-07 21:23:12	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x5d6607…
10-07 20:57:32	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xe27c7d…
10-07 19:10:00	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,497	0xfd9be5…
10-07 09:13:00	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	600	100¢	$599	0x29920d…
10-07 09:12:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	265	100¢	$264	0xc4cf9d…
10-07 09:07:32	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd62aaa…
10-07 09:04:48	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x708384…
10-07 09:04:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1a429a…
10-07 09:02:12	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe4f483…
10-07 09:01:08	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0a319a…
10-07 08:55:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x398df0…
10-07 08:53:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	3,400	100¢	$3,393	0x77357a…
10-05 21:21:34	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	4,437	100¢	$4,433	0xc55509…
10-05 15:08:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	4,436	100¢	$4,432	0x6b1669…
09-28 10:39:53	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	36¢	$180	0xfe5683…
09-28 09:03:54	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	37¢	$77	0xf1302e…
09-28 08:07:35	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	13¢	$47	0x161e93…
09-28 07:03:35	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?	No	BUY	310	99¢	$308	0x41a4ae…
09-28 07:02:14	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xa58232…
09-28 07:02:09	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0xd03a3d…
09-28 07:01:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x5aebc9…
09-28 07:01:48	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x22747d…
09-28 07:01:38	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x86ae7e…
09-28 07:01:09	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x60743a…
09-28 07:01:03	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xb459eb…
09-28 07:00:56	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x07c371…
09-28 06:58:39	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	186	99¢	$185	0x6255bf…
09-28 06:57:42	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,340	99¢	$3,323	0xcbebb5…
09-28 06:56:42	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x5180a9…
09-28 06:55:38	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x469298…
09-28 06:55:29	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa4869a…
09-28 06:55:11	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	19¢	$95	0x10c74c…
09-28 06:55:02	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	13¢	$17	0x76147e…
09-28 06:54:47	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	39¢	$21	0x3bebaa…
09-28 06:54:36	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	305	38¢	$116	0xa0a7ae…
09-28 06:54:24	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc63d7b…
09-28 06:54:24	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x137555…
09-24 16:49:26	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	18¢	$42	0x9ed2e9…
09-24 13:42:51	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	18¢	$8	0x305098…
09-24 09:24:42	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	13¢	$23	0x7b195e…
09-24 07:24:20	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x6047b4…
09-23 22:32:16	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x1bb822…
09-23 15:03:08	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	13¢	$4	0x735952…
09-23 12:29:19	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x346129…
09-23 09:05:10	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	293	41¢	$120	0x1c0b57…
09-23 08:40:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x8450c9…
09-23 07:57:58	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	13¢	$9	0x63cdbb…
09-23 00:48:34	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	12¢	$9	0x9e50cd…
09-22 12:21:42	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x9c37ea…
09-22 12:21:22	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0xa119a4…