Frightening-Rainmaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$39

Unrealized P&L

-$53

Hit rate

2.0%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

14,489 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$338.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-22 00:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 168 days

Categories

Other

56% 32% -$5,031

Politics

27% 31% -$1,429

Sports

12% 52% -$300

Tech

5% 34% -$449

Pop-Culture

0% 30% +$25

Crypto

0% 20% -$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 388 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?	No	+0	$4	100¢	$0	-$4	10-12 19:29
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election?	No	+0	$2	99¢	$0	-$2	10-02 17:12
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Yes	+0	$7	99¢	$0	-$7	10-09 10:08
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	+0	$1	99¢	$0	-$1	10-09 00:33
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	+0	$1	94¢	$0	-$1	10-04 13:17
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+0	$1	88¢	$0	-$1	10-10 16:34
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+0	$9	41¢	$0	-$9	10-07 18:25
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	29¢	$0	$0	10-10 09:15
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$3	44¢	$0	-$3	10-03 14:07
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+0	$22	16¢	$0	-$22	10-10 13:21
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	+0	$0	12¢	$0	$0	10-04 02:36
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	+0	$3	10¢	$0	-$3	10-07 12:33
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	+0	$0	2¢	$0	$0	10-10 15:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	45	$4.7K	4,180	4,180	+0	Yes	+$24	07-29 17:48
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	139	$3.9K	3,841	3,841	+0	Yes	+$22	06-14 03:12
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	137	$3.8K	4,067	4,067	+0	No	+$22	06-14 03:29
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	57	$2.9K	2,063	2,063	+0	No	+$3	08-05 06:51
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	57	$2.6K	1,675	1,675	+0	open	—	09-04 12:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	19	$2.3K	1,620	1,620	+0	No	-$14	07-29 12:02
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	89	$2.2K	2,318	2,318	+0	Yes	-$9	10-11 14:20
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	35	$2.2K	2,005	2,005	+0	Yes	-$17	09-16 06:50
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	30	$2.2K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$19	06-11 04:23
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	24	$1.7K	952	952	+0	open	—	09-16 18:02
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	8	$1.7K	850	850	+0	No	+$1	06-11 00:00
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	51	$1.6K	1,520	1,520	+0	No	-$24	10-10 16:40
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	12	$1.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	09-18 08:11
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	10	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$2	08-06 18:51
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	56	$1.5K	1,871	1,871	+0	open	—	09-12 00:51
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	32	$1.5K	1,310	1,310	+0	No	-$3	09-06 14:34
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	14	$1.3K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$14	07-30 17:57
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	28	$1.3K	903	903	+0	Yes	-$4	08-02 21:47
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	40	$1.3K	1,111	1,111	+0	No	+$6	09-21 06:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	8	$1.2K	800	800	+0	No	+$5	08-06 18:51
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	7	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	08-01 18:50
Fed rate hike in 2026?	16	$1.1K	900	900	+0	Yes	-$2	09-04 10:11
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	27	$926	733	733	+0	open	—	10-12 08:48
nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	21	$925	675	675	+0	Yes	+$3	06-08 15:39
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	17	$904	850	850	+0	open	—	10-11 17:42
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	25	$874	950	950	+0	Yes	+$14	10-03 21:01
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	29	$870	760	760	+0	No	+$11	06-03 23:20
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	16	$820	516	516	+0	open	—	08-25 18:50
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	20	$819	570	570	+0	No	+$4	09-18 10:05
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	18	$817	835	835	+0	No	+$1	09-13 11:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 00:10:23	Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x3ae614…
10-14 23:10:25	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x6c4224…
10-13 22:37:42	Will Colorado State have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x0b4e60…
10-13 22:29:07	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x6e7ee3…
10-13 22:25:03	Will Colorado State have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x30e2db…
10-13 22:20:33	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xff331f…
10-13 22:20:24	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xec0208…
10-13 15:10:41	Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$43	0x48506d…
10-13 13:10:38	Will Frances Tiafoe Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	Yes	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0xb18d2c…
10-13 11:11:02	Will Frances Tiafoe Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x50d6a8…
10-13 08:10:40	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 45m?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x138511…
10-13 03:10:44	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 12% or more?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x0f2d4a…
10-12 20:28:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	90	69¢	$62	0xc65124…
10-12 20:26:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0xaa478e…
10-12 20:21:20	ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x53eec7…
10-12 20:13:21	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x6c5106…
10-12 20:13:18	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xb3b56e…
10-12 20:08:15	Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x82a89c…
10-12 20:08:08	Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0x302fa1…
10-12 19:59:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x7d84ca…
10-12 19:55:18	ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026	No	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x5db74e…
10-12 19:51:50	Will Lille finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x6da898…
10-12 19:44:08	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0x7acb37…
10-12 19:44:05	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x287ec0…
10-12 19:33:14	Will Olympiacos finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x774134…
10-12 19:30:18	Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?	Messi	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x16f591…
10-12 19:29:18	Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x1172f1…
10-12 19:29:12	Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8d6342…
10-12 19:26:08	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x82ccac…
10-12 19:26:03	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x29313a…
10-12 19:09:29	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-02 House election by 45%-50%?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xbfc695…
10-12 19:09:02	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-02 House election by 45%-50%?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xf78c2b…
10-12 18:54:56	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xbfd726…
10-12 18:54:44	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xf2af4f…
10-12 18:47:08	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	50	35¢	$17	0x210456…
10-12 18:43:05	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x7a0ff2…
10-12 18:42:47	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x15b4e3…
10-12 18:41:56	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xf0dde7…
10-12 18:32:51	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xc5e5a5…
10-12 18:21:27	Will Alabama have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x1a404b…
10-12 18:21:24	Will Alabama have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x8a3ad9…
10-12 18:20:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x2bf95b…
10-12 18:19:32	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	61¢	$49	0x325a31…
10-12 18:16:42	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x57d99c…
10-12 18:16:41	Will BYU have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0xf4c725…
10-12 18:16:15	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x83b3c7…
10-12 18:15:29	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	62	45¢	$28	0x905268…
10-12 18:14:05	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x90919b…
10-12 18:13:59	Will BYU have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x4fd78d…
10-12 18:13:47	Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?	Messi	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x7e76a5…
10-12 18:09:29	Will Lille finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x70811d…
10-12 18:09:29	Will Lille finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x2d86d2…
10-12 17:44:12	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x622a5c…
10-12 17:31:38	ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x9fa683…
10-12 17:31:27	ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xfa8a8e…
10-12 17:24:41	Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?	Yes	SELL	51	3¢	$1	0xbd6aae…
10-12 17:23:59	Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0xa8a6c6…
10-12 17:23:42	Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x197c85…
10-12 17:19:20	Will Indiana have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x86a55c…
10-12 17:18:35	Will Indiana have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x89ba29…
10-12 16:59:20	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x1c6160…
10-12 16:59:17	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xeca528…
10-12 16:38:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xb4d98d…
10-12 16:38:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x733f14…
10-12 16:30:50	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x742a0a…
10-12 16:30:39	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xaa3c43…
10-12 16:29:29	Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?	No	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xe0fff4…
10-12 16:29:26	Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?	No	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0x514586…
10-12 16:24:12	Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x3ff2e1…
10-12 16:23:54	Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?	No	BUY	80	3¢	$3	0x7e407c…
10-12 16:15:18	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xc72d2b…
10-12 16:15:06	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$3	0x355f2c…
10-12 15:38:21	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x8db2d9…
10-12 15:38:17	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x249ed8…
10-12 15:21:06	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	100	48¢	$48	0x84f480…
10-12 15:19:51	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	80	55¢	$44	0xbf7d43…
10-12 15:17:24	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x266b97…
10-12 15:17:18	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0xdc51af…
10-12 15:08:29	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x43ddbd…
10-12 15:05:06	Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x1f1e93…
10-12 14:57:14	Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x3623d7…
10-12 14:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xc97320…
10-12 14:38:23	Will Olympiacos finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x0673c5…
10-12 14:38:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0xb1f4c5…
10-12 14:38:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x5dfe36…
10-12 14:37:30	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0xda0693…
10-12 14:37:23	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x28946e…
10-12 14:31:30	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x91caab…
10-12 14:31:24	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x328b01…
10-12 14:21:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x96c3fe…
10-12 14:16:57	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x4280a0…
10-12 14:15:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xd8fd21…
10-12 14:15:41	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x83fcdf…
10-12 14:15:30	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x29308a…
10-12 14:12:59	Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x86bb99…
10-12 14:05:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	SELL	45	10¢	$4	0x5a0f94…
10-12 14:05:26	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x7dd499…
10-12 14:05:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x84182c…
10-12 14:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xfc9a82…
10-12 13:58:09	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	25¢	$8	0xc919aa…