Actual-Arthur — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$84

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

35.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$44

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 06-30 13:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

86% 33% +$84

Politics

14% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+100	$43	44¢	$44	+$1	06-30 13:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$197	200	200	+0	Down	$-3	05-06 05:28
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	3	$129	100	200	-100	Down	+$59	05-04 07:06
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$100	100	100	+0	Up	$-0	05-06 07:14
odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794	2	$98	20	80	-60	open	—	03-05 15:20
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	3	$89	102	100	+2	Up	+$1	05-04 07:49
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	3	$66	50	50	+0	Down	$-0	05-06 08:19
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	6	$62	50	100	-50	Down	+$29	05-04 07:23
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	2	$57	50	50	+0	Up	$-0	05-06 07:28
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	2	$54	50	50	+0	open	—	05-04 10:25
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	3	$48	50	50	+0	Up	$-3	05-06 08:43
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$47	109	109	+0	Up	$-1	05-06 04:59
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	2	$44	50	50	+0	open	—	05-06 03:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	1	$43	100	0	+100	open	—	06-30 13:53
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	2	$32	50	50	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 08:16
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$27	60	60	+0	Up	$-0	05-06 05:02
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	3	$23	50	50	+0	Up	$-5	05-06 05:02
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	4	$20	140	140	+0	No	+$0	05-06 05:22
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$18	27	27	+0	open	—	03-09 07:15
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$18	52	52	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 08:19
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$17	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-04 08:15
Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$13	0	20	-20	open	—	05-04 09:54
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 6?	2	$11	50	50	+0	Up	$-3	05-06 05:31
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	2	$9	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 06:53
Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$8	0	15	-15	No	+$8	05-04 08:39
Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	05-04 03:16
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 320 339	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-27 13:41
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-06 06:46
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$3	20	20	+0	open	—	05-06 08:20
Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?	4	$2	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 07:49
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	3	$2	21	20	+1	open	—	05-04 09:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 13:53:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x9cc264…
05-06 08:43:48	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x491f60…
05-06 08:39:12	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xab5bda…
05-06 08:39:02	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x0d1598…
05-06 08:20:20	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x116fbf…
05-06 08:20:10	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x0fc350…
05-06 08:19:58	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x056b00…
05-06 08:19:46	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0xdfac45…
05-06 08:19:34	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xb25a6e…
05-06 08:13:16	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xdec538…
05-06 08:08:50	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x28d44f…
05-06 08:08:28	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x80ab27…
05-06 08:05:28	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xde8e40…
05-06 08:01:16	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf18b33…
05-06 08:00:06	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x359cac…
05-06 07:28:14	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x7e5579…
05-06 07:26:26	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xf9c122…
05-06 07:14:02	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x49370d…
05-06 07:13:24	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xfee44e…
05-06 07:01:48	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x94cddb…
05-06 06:56:42	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x3443fb…
05-06 06:46:50	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x2c565c…
05-06 06:37:12	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x7a0b79…
05-06 05:31:10	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xbccb81…
05-06 05:28:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x3766f5…
05-06 05:28:00	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xdd718c…
05-06 05:22:22	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	SELL	120	7¢	$8	0xf54542…
05-06 05:21:22	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	120	7¢	$8	0x200dcd…
05-06 05:20:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x10fd38…
05-06 05:15:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xc7c312…
05-06 05:02:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	19¢	$9	0x31243c…
05-06 05:02:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xca4b25…
05-06 05:01:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x2c6d4d…
05-06 05:00:40	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x5b866d…
05-06 04:59:22	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x82209f…
05-06 04:58:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x2f8661…
05-06 04:55:46	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x4c5061…
05-06 04:46:26	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xc7d1cb…
05-06 04:12:58	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x2e18e5…
05-06 04:09:04	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x0230ef…
05-06 04:05:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0xc5473e…
05-06 03:57:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0xca777d…
05-06 03:35:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	44	28¢	$12	0x66fc9f…
05-06 03:32:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x4a6ed4…
05-06 03:19:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x5793af…
05-06 03:18:54	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x8b30af…
05-06 03:09:00	Will Marco Rubio say "Interview" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x8df032…
05-06 03:06:18	Will Marco Rubio say "Baby" or "Wedding" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x5881f5…
05-06 02:51:58	Will Marco Rubio say "Pentagon" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc60e58…
05-06 02:43:16	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x35ea0f…
05-06 02:32:58	Will Marco Rubio say "Pentagon" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x8f91b4…
05-04 10:25:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0x535be2…
05-04 10:06:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x4dd936…
05-04 10:04:22	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x8af881…
05-04 09:54:16	Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x877acf…
05-04 09:24:20	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xf7664e…
05-04 09:10:28	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x972ddd…
05-04 08:39:16	Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	15	57¢	$8	0x2e6507…
05-04 08:16:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x9355d7…
05-04 08:15:52	Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x61039d…
05-04 08:12:12	Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x6a0cde…
05-04 07:49:20	Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x7d3e69…
05-04 07:49:04	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0xa7941e…
05-04 07:43:34	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x28d123…
05-04 07:41:48	Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xb60d41…
05-04 07:41:42	Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x46a370…
05-04 07:35:12	Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0xb5f8e6…
05-04 07:23:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x1799db…
05-04 07:22:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x06daff…
05-04 07:21:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0xd17676…
05-04 07:21:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	39	32¢	$12	0x2169c4…
05-04 07:21:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0xa848b3…
05-04 07:18:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xe16549…
05-04 07:06:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x3cf9a8…
05-04 06:53:02	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x386c58…
05-04 06:52:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x0052f1…
05-04 06:40:08	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x06fff2…
05-04 06:33:46	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x42c201…
05-04 06:07:22	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x0409d2…
05-04 06:05:16	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x2b86e5…
05-04 05:58:06	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd06a1b…
05-04 05:36:54	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x3ccd1e…
05-04 03:51:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x2bc349…
05-04 03:46:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x29f749…
05-04 03:16:12	Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x61724b…
05-04 03:15:44	Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x0d2ff2…
03-09 07:15:27	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	27	35¢	$10	0xcffe6f…
03-09 07:03:53	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	27	32¢	$9	0x3b1eb2…
03-05 15:20:07	odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x5d2b32…
02-27 13:41:01	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 320 339	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x38cf49…
01-11 07:32:32	odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x51098d…