Actual-Arthur — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$95

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

18.6%

Resolved

Trades

192

lifetime

Volume

$2.52K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$66

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 08-30 16:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

76% 17% -$47

Politics

22% 43% +$25

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% 0% -$73

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Yes		+100	$50	52¢	$52	+$2	08-30 16:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+100	$43	14¢	$14	-$30	06-30 13:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	11	$200	223	223	+0	No	$0	05-04 06:20
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$197	200	200	+0	Down	-$3	05-06 05:28
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	5	$192	200	200	+0	Down	-$4	05-04 07:06
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	8	$148	200	200	+0	No	-$3	05-06 07:18
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	6	$136	100	100	+0	Yes	-$7	05-06 08:45
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	7	$117	150	150	+0	Yes	+$1	05-04 06:04
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$100	100	100	+0	Up	$0	05-06 07:14
odds trump acquires greenland before 2027 hit 50 by march 31 794	2	$98	20	80	-60	No	+$1	03-05 15:20
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	7	$93	100	100	+0	Down	-$2	05-04 07:23
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?	4	$89	102	102	+0	Up	$0	05-04 07:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$76	100	0	+100	Yes	+$24	05-06 09:39
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	3	$66	50	50	+0	Down	$0	05-06 08:19
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	2	$57	50	50	+0	Up	$0	05-06 07:28
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	2	$54	50	50	+0	No	-$3	05-04 10:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	1	$50	100	0	+100	open	—	08-30 16:22
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	6	$49	60	60	+0	open	—	05-04 07:41
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	3	$48	50	50	+0	Up	-$3	05-06 08:43
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$47	109	109	+0	Up	-$1	05-06 04:59
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	2	$44	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	05-06 03:19
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	4	$43	40	40	+0	open	—	05-04 06:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	1	$43	100	0	+100	open	—	06-30 13:53
Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 06:27
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	2	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 06:20
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	2	$32	50	50	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 08:16
Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 10:24
Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$31	20	20	+0	Yes	-$4	05-04 09:54
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	4	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 08:33
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	4	$27	60	60	+0	Up	$0	05-06 05:02
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	-$3	05-04 03:17
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6?	2	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	05-06 08:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 16:22:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xf53843…
07-14 15:35:34	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	94	22¢	$20	0x45265e…
06-30 13:53:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x9cc264…
05-06 09:39:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x0ca6a3…
05-06 08:45:46	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	No	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x408f59…
05-06 08:44:58	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x10c294…
05-06 08:43:48	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x491f60…
05-06 08:39:12	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0xab5bda…
05-06 08:39:02	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x0d1598…
05-06 08:37:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xc43ba0…
05-06 08:35:22	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5ef971…
05-06 08:20:20	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x116fbf…
05-06 08:20:10	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x0fc350…
05-06 08:19:58	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x056b00…
05-06 08:19:46	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0xdfac45…
05-06 08:19:34	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xb25a6e…
05-06 08:13:16	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xdec538…
05-06 08:08:50	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x28d44f…
05-06 08:08:28	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x80ab27…
05-06 08:05:28	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xde8e40…
05-06 08:01:16	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf18b33…
05-06 08:00:06	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x359cac…
05-06 07:28:14	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x7e5579…
05-06 07:26:26	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xf9c122…
05-06 07:18:38	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x500743…
05-06 07:17:54	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x39b414…
05-06 07:14:02	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x49370d…
05-06 07:13:24	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xfee44e…
05-06 07:01:58	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xf1c58d…
05-06 07:01:48	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x94cddb…
05-06 07:01:00	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x063c06…
05-06 06:56:42	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x3443fb…
05-06 06:46:50	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x2c565c…
05-06 06:37:12	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x7a0b79…
05-06 06:18:36	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x1963ec…
05-06 06:18:08	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?	No	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x385d7c…
05-06 06:17:48	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x4677f9…
05-06 06:08:08	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xf44944…
05-06 06:05:52	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?	No	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x9badd2…
05-06 06:00:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?	Yes	BUY	41	0¢	$0	0xc0a4cd…
05-06 05:57:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?	Yes	BUY	59	0¢	$0	0x62e8ae…
05-06 05:31:10	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xbccb81…
05-06 05:28:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x3766f5…
05-06 05:28:00	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xdd718c…
05-06 05:25:00	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xd961fb…
05-06 05:22:22	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	SELL	120	7¢	$8	0xf54542…
05-06 05:22:12	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	No	SELL	50	72¢	$36	0x14a480…
05-06 05:21:22	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	120	7¢	$8	0x200dcd…
05-06 05:21:06	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xd10c81…
05-06 05:21:06	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0xc586c4…
05-06 05:21:06	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	No	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x1d0adb…
05-06 05:20:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x10fd38…
05-06 05:15:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xc7c312…
05-06 05:02:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	19¢	$9	0x31243c…
05-06 05:02:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xca4b25…
05-06 05:01:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x2c6d4d…
05-06 05:00:40	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x5b866d…
05-06 04:59:22	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x82209f…
05-06 04:58:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x2f8661…
05-06 04:55:46	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x4c5061…
05-06 04:54:44	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x747122…
05-06 04:46:26	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xc7d1cb…
05-06 04:41:48	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x140fcc…
05-06 04:41:38	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7fdc41…
05-06 04:38:20	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0x443c54…
05-06 04:35:40	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x2b87e2…
05-06 04:28:02	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x92d9c8…
05-06 04:27:32	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x8d8ffc…
05-06 04:12:58	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x2e18e5…
05-06 04:09:04	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x0230ef…
05-06 04:05:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0xc5473e…
05-06 03:57:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0xca777d…
05-06 03:35:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	44	28¢	$12	0x66fc9f…
05-06 03:32:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x4a6ed4…
05-06 03:19:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x5793af…
05-06 03:18:54	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x8b30af…
05-06 03:09:00	Will Marco Rubio say "Interview" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x8df032…
05-06 03:06:18	Will Marco Rubio say "Baby" or "Wedding" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x5881f5…
05-06 02:51:58	Will Marco Rubio say "Pentagon" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc60e58…
05-06 02:43:16	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x35ea0f…
05-06 02:40:30	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x4a3c45…
05-06 02:38:40	Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xd0088b…
05-06 02:32:58	Will Marco Rubio say "Pentagon" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x8f91b4…
05-04 10:25:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0x535be2…
05-04 10:24:42	Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x8d8a81…
05-04 10:06:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x4dd936…
05-04 10:04:22	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x8af881…
05-04 09:54:16	Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x877acf…
05-04 09:24:20	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xf7664e…
05-04 09:10:28	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x972ddd…
05-04 08:46:28	Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xc89cb5…
05-04 08:39:16	Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	15	57¢	$8	0x2e6507…
05-04 08:34:40	Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	57¢	$8	0x4b7f7e…
05-04 08:33:14	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0xf84a97…
05-04 08:20:56	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xf1cc6f…
05-04 08:16:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x9355d7…
05-04 08:15:52	Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x61039d…
05-04 08:12:12	Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x6a0cde…
05-04 08:01:14	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xb53fc0…
05-04 07:59:22	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x575aa2…