Light-Turn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$322

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

Trades

151

lifetime

Volume

$151.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.01K

Open exposure

$47

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 09-08 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

99% 93% -$324

Crypto

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+28	$28	100¢	$28	+$0	06-06 00:05
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No		-20	-$18	94¢	$-19	-$1	06-09 00:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$35.3K	35,434	0	+35,434	No	+$177	03-22 06:59
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$35.0K	35,434	0	+35,434	No	+$425	03-22 06:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$29.9K	31,084	0	+31,084	No	+$1,166	03-22 06:58
cbb cabap kan 2026 03 20	5	$16.0K	31,711	0	+31,711	Kansas Jayhawks	-$153	03-20 04:52
cbb hofst ala 2026 03 20	3	$15.0K	30,032	0	+30,032	Alabama Crimson Tide	+$4	03-20 02:35
cbb missr mia 2026 03 20	5	$15.0K	30,000	0	+30,000	Miami Hurricanes	+$0	03-19 04:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	40	$4.0K	39,466	0	+39,466	Yes	-$1,946	03-22 06:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$53	28	28	+0	No	+$0	04-13 21:47
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 18?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	08-16 11:52
highest temperature in seoul on april 4 2026 8c	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	04-03 09:41
bitcoin above 88k on april 24	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	04-21 02:13
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C or below on July 3?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	07-01 14:53
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	06-06 00:05
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on July 29?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	07-28 06:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 10?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	09-08 14:06
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 7?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	05-07 04:21
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on July 30?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	07-28 06:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 9?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	09-08 14:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$1	04-03 09:40
will the price of solana be less than 50 on march 30	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	03-28 03:47
highest temperature in san francisco on april 19 2026 52 53f	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	04-18 08:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on September 10?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	09-08 14:07
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 29?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-28 03:57
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on July 2?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-01 14:53
bitcoin above 62k on april 19	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	04-17 02:00
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 27?	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	04-26 03:21
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on July 30?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-28 06:41
solana above 40 on march 31	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	03-28 03:46
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-16 11:50
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-16 11:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-08 14:07:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on September 10?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa4150e…
09-08 14:06:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 8?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x364287…
09-08 14:06:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 10?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1e70c2…
09-08 14:05:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 9?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8fe4bb…
08-16 11:52:33	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 18?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x9ddcbe…
08-16 11:51:04	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x189ec0…
08-16 11:50:31	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x53b6e9…
08-16 11:50:16	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x0a3bba…
08-02 05:54:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 2?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf01018…
08-02 05:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C or below on August 3?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6865dd…
08-02 05:53:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on August 4?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x963685…
08-02 05:53:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc87dcf…
08-02 05:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 2?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x04b1c7…
07-28 06:41:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on July 30?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x6e19dc…
07-28 06:40:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x6e9191…
07-28 06:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on July 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2e34a7…
07-28 06:40:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on July 29?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xc238dd…
07-01 14:54:25	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on July 3?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb4a31e…
07-01 14:54:01	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 2?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd597e6…
07-01 14:53:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C or below on July 3?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x0fba49…
07-01 14:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on July 2?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x138d77…
06-09 00:38:19	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x86af30…
06-06 00:05:51	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xc494ef…
06-06 00:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 6?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2c1f83…
06-06 00:03:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 6?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x5b01d2…
06-06 00:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 6?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xab5650…
06-06 00:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 6?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9d546e…
06-06 00:00:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 6?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6c5243…
05-07 04:23:31	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 7?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x1811ea…
05-07 04:23:05	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 8?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x45ca6c…
05-07 04:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 7?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x78f10b…
05-07 04:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1fc93a…
05-07 04:22:09	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 23°F or below on May 8?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x87b00c…
05-07 04:21:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 7?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x903a13…
04-28 03:57:30	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 29?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x4efed5…
04-26 03:22:20	Will the price of Solana be above $140 on April 29?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x537090…
04-26 03:22:00	Will the price of Solana be above $140 on April 28?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xbacde3…
04-26 03:21:32	Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x09780e…
04-26 03:20:46	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8f1dc3…
04-23 01:43:34	highest temperature in seoul on april 24 2026 12c	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa7b49a…
04-23 01:43:24	highest temperature in seoul on april 23 2026 16c	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x686af0…
04-21 02:13:16	bitcoin above 88k on april 24	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x561c8d…
04-21 02:13:04	bitcoin above 64k on april 23	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x47218e…
04-21 02:12:44	bitcoin above 66k on april 22	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2e44be…
04-19 10:54:52	bitcoin above 86k on april 21	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x791ae8…
04-19 10:54:36	bitcoin above 82k on april 20	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6cc095…
04-18 08:16:08	highest temperature in los angeles on april 19 2026 56 57f	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfe464f…
04-18 08:15:36	highest temperature in san francisco on april 19 2026 52 53f	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x2dc815…
04-17 02:00:26	bitcoin above 62k on april 19	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x177d7a…
04-17 02:00:12	bitcoin above 82k on april 18	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0167d0…
04-15 02:58:48	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on april 16	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa18226…
04-15 02:58:12	bitcoin above 62k on april 17	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc5d864…
04-15 02:57:32	bitcoin above 66k on april 16	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x998513…
04-13 21:47:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	28	95¢	$27	0xf9d201…
04-13 04:11:49	bitcoin above 82k on april 15	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfe49ab…
04-12 01:56:21	will bitcoin reach 80k april 6 12	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe2f8cc…
04-12 01:55:57	bitcoin above 58k on april 14	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0134fb…
04-12 01:55:39	bitcoin above 62k on april 13	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd01fbc…
04-12 01:55:17	bitcoin above 78k on april 12	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x614149…
04-07 04:13:27	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on april 8	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1bd4ab…
04-07 04:12:37	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2600 on april 8	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x083890…
04-05 01:44:11	bitcoin above 72k on april 5	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x71c25d…
04-05 01:43:51	bitcoin above 76k on april 6	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x70ecb6…
04-03 09:41:53	highest temperature in seoul on april 4 2026 8c	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4b0c67…
04-03 09:41:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xa3a92b…
04-03 09:40:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x9023c1…
03-28 03:48:29	will solana reach 140 march 23 29	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xeeba35…
03-28 03:47:55	will the price of solana be greater than 130 on march 31	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xc63649…
03-28 03:47:33	will the price of solana be less than 50 on march 30	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x2e699e…
03-28 03:47:19	will the price of solana be between 40 50 on march 29	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x10175b…
03-28 03:47:01	will the price of solana be between 60 70 on march 28	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4ababf…
03-28 03:46:29	solana above 40 on march 31	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xaad575…
03-25 03:52:35	ethereum above 2600 on march 27	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xbac8a6…
03-25 03:51:59	ethereum above 2600 on march 26	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x98ec8f…
03-25 03:51:49	ethereum above 1900 on march 25	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9f47ba…
03-25 03:51:17	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 26	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6ee598…
03-25 03:50:39	bitcoin above 80k on march 26	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x012d44…
03-25 03:50:27	bitcoin above 64k on march 25	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x778312…
03-23 03:21:23	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on march 24	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x826901…
03-23 03:21:03	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on march 23	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x104393…
03-23 03:20:17	will bitcoin reach 70k on march 22	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd4e646…
03-23 03:19:09	bitcoin above 82k on march 25	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0f0676…
03-23 03:18:59	bitcoin above 80k on march 24	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdd40cb…
03-23 03:18:47	bitcoin above 74k on march 23	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x4ba9ef…
03-22 06:59:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15,434	100¢	$15,357	0x530742…
03-22 06:59:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15,434	99¢	$15,249	0x431a5b…
03-22 06:58:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	434	96¢	$418	0x896eb7…
03-22 06:52:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0xd6252f…
03-22 06:52:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0xce9d12…
03-22 06:52:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15,000	96¢	$14,460	0xbefa7f…
03-22 06:52:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x807ad1…
03-22 06:52:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x5d9528…
03-22 06:52:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x1cbf77…
03-22 06:47:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0xd895f3…
03-22 06:47:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa9b295…
03-22 06:47:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x7ea380…
03-22 06:47:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x72f105…
03-22 06:47:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x66ad9b…
03-22 06:41:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0xbe9330…
03-22 06:39:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0x4f18e7…