Itchy-Cradle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$10.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$158

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

318

1,530 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$195.1K

$979.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$640

Open exposure

$251

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-27 09:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

74% 73% +$5,725

Politics

25% 76% -$3,355

Sports

0% 50% +$75

Tech

0% 100% +$379

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$10

Crypto

0% 43% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+160	$122	98¢	$157	+$35	10-06 15:18
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	-184	-$97	41¢	$-75	+$22	05-10 15:04
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-179	-$18	11¢	$-19	-$1	08-10 07:09
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$213	84¢	$0	-$213	09-01 17:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	93	$117.9K	77,883	68,719	+9,164	No	+$1,097	09-16 17:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	60	$65.2K	38,782	36,407	+2,375	Yes	+$1,480	07-29 12:45
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	77	$52.3K	26,655	26,655	+0	No	+$287	06-06 10:02
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	27	$51.5K	39,601	13,500	+26,101	Yes	+$1,075	01-22 12:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	54	$43.1K	35,837	8,473	+27,364	No	+$1,113	02-26 13:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$41.9K	21,290	21,290	+0	No	+$190	04-23 18:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	11	$41.2K	20,848	20,848	+0	No	+$368	06-29 08:07
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	53	$36.3K	20,418	17,419	+2,998	Yes	+$1,209	01-23 06:30
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	15	$29.5K	22,242	7,937	+14,305	No	+$373	06-14 21:50
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	25	$28.0K	19,035	19,035	+0	No	-$6,736	08-20 15:32
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	69	$26.8K	27,525	3,028	+24,498	No	+$2,675	03-23 11:10
will khamenei leave iran by friday	25	$25.7K	18,011	7,944	+10,067	No	+$187	01-09 14:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	55	$23.3K	12,736	12,736	+0	Yes	+$171	02-24 21:07
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	19	$23.1K	22,551	800	+21,752	Yes	+$276	02-05 16:04
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	13	$21.4K	10,968	10,968	+0	No	+$212	02-03 22:20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	19	$21.3K	21,331	0	+21,331	No	+$64	04-13 07:04
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	10	$19.3K	19,414	0	+19,414	No	+$153	04-13 09:01
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	25	$19.2K	10,385	10,385	+0	Yes	+$1,117	07-08 14:30
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	25	$17.4K	9,198	9,548	-350	No	+$424	03-25 10:03
will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q4 2025	1	$13.0K	13,036	0	+13,036	No	+$16	01-02 14:02
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	12	$12.2K	8,118	8,118	+0	open	—	09-01 09:36
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	18	$11.7K	6,341	5,698	+643	Yes	+$181	07-15 12:36
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	29	$10.9K	9,419	3,788	+5,631	Yes	+$806	04-29 06:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$10.6K	5,372	5,372	+0	No	+$65	05-19 11:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$10.4K	5,608	4,925	+684	Yes	+$48	04-28 14:48
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	14	$8.9K	9,054	9,054	+0	No	-$4,772	09-28 11:41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	12	$8.7K	9,810	9,810	+0	Yes	+$533	08-10 13:19
Fed rate hike in 2026?	15	$8.3K	5,239	5,239	+0	Yes	-$424	05-12 19:28
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	3	$7.6K	7,638	0	+7,638	No	+$12	04-30 12:47
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	35	$7.6K	4,058	3,833	+225	No	+$82	02-18 19:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:10:33	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	159	16¢	$26	0xa3f4c3…
10-26 10:46:29	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x609b8c…
10-26 10:29:32	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x531a68…
10-26 09:28:11	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	472	85¢	$401	0xf79d56…
10-26 09:27:59	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	540	26¢	$140	0x184a3f…
10-25 13:16:47	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	470	85¢	$399	0x9b1de7…
10-24 20:49:03	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	541	6¢	$32	0x2c43ff…
10-24 20:48:35	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x55e06e…
10-24 16:45:12	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x7cd44e…
10-23 17:28:45	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	169	1¢	$3	0x355926…
10-23 17:01:03	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xe2fa61…
10-23 13:48:14	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x18b549…
10-21 19:56:56	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xf852fd…
10-21 09:34:36	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xbc14f7…
10-19 19:52:17	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	400	79¢	$315	0x8a720d…
10-19 19:15:56	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	289	83¢	$240	0x35a918…
10-19 19:13:35	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x10c681…
10-19 11:30:12	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	0	83¢	$0	0x676bf5…
10-18 22:23:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,153	87¢	$1,003	0x4fbb47…
10-17 19:44:51	will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5pt5 or above magnitude worldwide oct19 25	No	BUY	180	88¢	$158	0xa1fbef…
10-15 12:30:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,106	63¢	$697	0xaa5569…
10-15 12:30:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47	63¢	$30	0xe4e3e6…
10-14 14:20:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	708	61¢	$432	0x93a034…
10-14 14:11:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0xe04cc6…
10-14 12:30:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	955	72¢	$688	0x087731…
10-13 19:29:00	Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9adaeb…
10-13 19:29:00	Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x61a915…
10-13 12:37:29	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	400	69¢	$276	0x87d06b…
10-13 09:33:49	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xecf1ff…
10-13 06:11:19	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	400	83¢	$332	0xbe51b1…
10-12 23:36:20	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	385	89¢	$343	0xa0e8a8…
10-12 23:35:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	105	89¢	$93	0x053886…
10-12 23:28:39	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x53835f…
10-12 14:23:50	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xf43b78…
10-12 11:48:23	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xa73551…
10-12 11:48:20	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	178	86¢	$153	0x2dbaa5…
10-12 06:02:14	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$11	0x214e64…
10-12 04:40:39	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	104	86¢	$90	0x60cbee…
10-12 04:40:32	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	104	86¢	$90	0xb2bfb6…
10-12 01:37:18	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	177	95¢	$168	0xefddb3…
10-12 01:32:05	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xda8470…
10-12 01:17:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x3d7d19…
10-12 01:07:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	95	95¢	$90	0x4551c8…
10-10 19:31:28	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0x45ec78…
10-10 18:25:34	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0xbe6355…
10-10 16:48:57	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	145	81¢	$117	0xf784b0…
10-10 03:57:07	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0x2bb73d…
10-10 03:52:07	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x99ef06…
10-10 03:47:09	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0x36e3c5…
10-10 03:47:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x58c78d…
10-10 03:07:27	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	171	53¢	$90	0x4936dd…
10-09 18:40:28	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	113	66¢	$74	0x04ffc0…
10-09 18:38:10	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x97e30b…
10-09 18:37:29	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x2f31b9…
10-09 18:31:53	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xc8266c…
10-09 18:24:50	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0x88008c…
10-09 18:23:50	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	233	78¢	$182	0x77fd13…
10-09 07:07:13	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	145	95¢	$137	0x263ce7…
10-09 02:17:03	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	245	18¢	$44	0xdc8e1b…
10-08 23:47:20	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x9e731e…
10-08 15:38:41	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	145	94¢	$136	0x8da167…
10-08 09:15:29	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	197	10¢	$20	0xb0a756…
10-08 09:14:12	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	101	10¢	$10	0x20e2b5…
10-08 08:25:17	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	161	30¢	$48	0x717b49…
10-08 08:21:14	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	110	29¢	$32	0x7d74b4…
10-06 15:18:02	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	480	96¢	$462	0xb0fd26…
10-06 15:13:56	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	520	96¢	$500	0xa51d4e…
10-06 12:41:21	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x3ca2ef…
10-06 08:19:37	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0xab60a2…
10-06 07:05:58	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0x032b1e…
10-05 21:16:20	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	671	93¢	$624	0x998a44…
10-05 21:14:32	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x020c7a…
10-05 21:06:17	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x9b9463…
10-05 21:06:16	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	89	93¢	$83	0xbd08ad…
10-05 21:06:16	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x239042…
10-05 20:16:43	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	168	96¢	$161	0xad61e9…
10-05 14:05:50	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	324	38¢	$123	0xaf5b8b…
10-02 20:52:45	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	41	51¢	$21	0x3c5c33…
10-02 13:02:14	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	530	100¢	$528	0x16208a…
10-02 13:01:54	Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xc701d6…
10-02 13:01:45	Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	BUY	1,848	100¢	$1,842	0xc0cde9…
10-02 13:01:36	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	399	98¢	$392	0xc1a508…
10-02 12:40:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	144	84¢	$121	0x54421e…
09-29 10:01:11	Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	45	66¢	$29	0x138656…
09-28 11:42:29	UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	No	SELL	242	96¢	$232	0x68ebbd…
09-28 11:41:44	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	240	23¢	$55	0xb4f5e0…
09-28 11:41:44	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	652	23¢	$150	0x16f822…
09-28 11:40:48	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	3,050	21¢	$638	0xe2d5d6…
09-28 11:39:17	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	4,892	23¢	$1,128	0x1a365a…
09-28 11:38:48	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	Yes	SELL	292	54¢	$157	0x1d9065…
09-28 11:36:56	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x279f7b…
09-28 11:36:51	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0x32597c…
09-28 11:20:27	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	195	23¢	$45	0xc9d68f…
09-28 11:19:06	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	3,716	88¢	$3,281	0xbbc011…
09-28 11:18:45	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	2,731	80¢	$2,182	0x2f3ecd…
09-28 11:18:23	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	Yes	BUY	292	76¢	$222	0xa03fae…
09-28 11:18:18	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	36	58¢	$21	0xe6a4d7…
09-28 11:18:18	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	75	58¢	$43	0xcb319a…
09-28 11:18:18	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	415	58¢	$240	0x66129a…
09-28 11:17:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	1,882	53¢	$1,000	0x01b0cd…