Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$853

Unrealized P&L

-$11.3K

Hit rate

64.5%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$237.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.19K

Open exposure

$39.1K

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 09-16 02:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

66% 45% -$3,211

Other

34% 50% +$2,358

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+35,883	$30,181	94¢	$33.6K	+$3,370	09-16 02:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-25,531	-$8,170	18¢	$-4468	+$3,702	04-29 19:01
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+20,256	$19,482	6¢	$1.1K	-$18,368	07-31 06:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$30.2K	35,883	0	+35,883	open	—	09-16 02:28
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	6	$29.9K	16,234	16,233	+0	No	-$86	08-21 04:03
israel closes its airspace by july 24	2	$29.0K	29,442	0	+29,442	No	+$447	07-25 00:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	82	$20.0K	25,000	0	+25,000	Yes	+$5,022	07-27 04:13
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	2	$19.5K	20,256	0	+20,256	open	—	07-31 06:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$15.2K	15,800	0	+15,800	No	+$632	05-13 16:50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	1	$15.0K	15,144	0	+15,144	No	+$172	08-27 06:12
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	50	$11.0K	11,044	1,737	+9,307	Yes	+$296	05-26 16:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$8.2K	0	25,531	-25,531	open	—	04-29 19:01
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$7.1K	4,094	4,094	+0	Yes	+$1,082	04-30 22:16
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$5.0K	5,200	0	+5,200	No	+$151	05-13 16:49
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	2	$5.0K	0	5,435	-5,435	Yes	-$440	05-01 17:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$4.1K	2,097	2,097	+0	No	+$95	05-01 17:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$4.0K	24,745	0	+24,745	No	-$888	04-24 16:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$4.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$33	05-01 16:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$3.8K	2,667	2,667	+0	Yes	-$187	05-01 17:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$3.6K	25,949	23,900	+2,049	No	-$330	05-01 17:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	3	$3.0K	74,795	0	+74,795	No	-$992	04-24 02:48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$2.6K	2,633	2,633	+0	No	+$554	05-01 17:01
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	2	$2.0K	1,019	1,019	+0	No	+$18	05-01 17:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,186	0	+2,186	No	+$186	04-24 13:42
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$2.0K	1,717	1,717	+0	No	-$29	05-01 17:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$1.3K	1,320	1,320	+0	No	-$676	05-01 17:21
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.1K	76,434	32,206	+44,227	Yes	-$903	05-01 17:05
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	1	$1.0K	0	1,043	-1,043	No	-$42	05-01 17:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	1	$1.0K	15,449	0	+15,449	No	-$1,000	04-24 17:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$1000	82,081	0	+82,081	No	-$1,000	04-24 06:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	1	$1000	2,743	0	+2,743	No	-$1,000	04-24 16:34
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	1	$1000	9,194	0	+9,194	No	-$1,000	04-24 02:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$1000	8,368	0	+8,368	No	-$1,000	04-24 12:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 02:28:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	17,183	88¢	$15,121	0xc62ddd…
08-27 06:12:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	BUY	15,144	99¢	$14,972	0x7215cc…
08-21 04:03:28	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	7,998	92¢	$7,336	0xdf77ee…
08-21 03:13:00	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	8,235	92¢	$7,560	0x0552f1…
07-31 06:56:24	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	668	94¢	$628	0xe57be0…
07-31 06:55:56	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	19,588	96¢	$18,854	0xae4f04…
07-31 02:19:33	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	5,410	92¢	$4,998	0xad7d92…
07-31 02:09:20	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10,667	92¢	$9,839	0x26bd79…
07-31 02:09:18	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	67	92¢	$62	0xfb93c6…
07-31 02:09:18	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	90	92¢	$83	0x013e29…
07-27 04:13:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	697	80¢	$557	0x0d299a…
07-27 04:12:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xa650db…
07-27 04:12:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xbb0b98…
07-27 04:10:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x646c44…
07-27 04:10:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xde576a…
07-27 04:08:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xfaf4a3…
07-27 04:05:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x87d567…
07-27 04:05:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x24d50b…
07-27 04:05:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xd96b01…
07-27 04:05:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xebf13b…
07-27 04:05:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x1858af…
07-27 04:03:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x2ede1b…
07-27 04:02:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	80¢	$42	0xfc4941…
07-27 04:02:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x4a233d…
07-27 04:02:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x96528e…
07-27 04:02:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x7abf95…
07-27 04:01:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x237e81…
07-27 03:59:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,200	80¢	$1,760	0xe5efb2…
07-27 03:58:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x577bbe…
07-27 03:58:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x3ea7c7…
07-27 03:58:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0d3679…
07-27 03:57:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x920084…
07-27 03:56:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x9726b7…
07-27 03:56:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x1f6d04…
07-27 03:56:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x8a5ae6…
07-27 03:55:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x7c15de…
07-27 03:54:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x8c56ae…
07-27 03:54:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x779abf…
07-27 03:52:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xf17ceb…
07-27 03:51:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x678f14…
07-27 03:49:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xef7f2b…
07-27 03:49:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x5273cc…
07-27 03:49:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xed5fe5…
07-27 03:47:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xb1fab7…
07-27 03:45:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6ef536…
07-27 03:45:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xb11caa…
07-27 03:43:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x0850c4…
07-27 03:40:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x02e536…
07-27 03:39:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	582	80¢	$466	0x92eb37…
07-27 03:38:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x9b87f1…
07-27 03:37:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0xd0e964…
07-27 03:36:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x5148db…
07-27 03:34:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x229a6e…
07-27 03:32:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$4	0x264175…
07-27 03:31:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x39a931…
07-27 03:31:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6a53a7…
07-27 03:29:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x94db67…
07-27 03:29:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x329e67…
07-27 03:29:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x9d8927…
07-27 03:27:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xfcb188…
07-27 03:27:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x877c3a…
07-27 03:24:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xedd605…
07-27 03:24:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe79f0f…
07-27 03:22:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x8ef6c2…
07-27 03:22:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x37807e…
07-27 03:20:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x3c1375…
07-27 03:18:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb527c4…
07-27 03:18:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x0fc80c…
07-27 03:15:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x43b78e…
07-27 03:13:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0x9d2475…
07-27 03:13:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xb286f0…
07-27 03:11:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x1ff870…
07-27 03:10:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	551	80¢	$441	0x983f46…
07-27 03:08:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x4fe179…
07-27 03:06:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x378d66…
07-27 03:06:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xe5afe2…
07-27 03:05:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xf3d5c8…
07-27 03:04:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	134	80¢	$107	0x94b01d…
07-27 03:04:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xf4d4f6…
07-27 03:04:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x55cac5…
07-27 03:03:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x03e5d3…
07-27 02:58:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x14d5f0…
07-27 02:56:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x220f7b…
07-27 02:54:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xd6f02d…
07-27 02:53:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9efc7b…
07-27 02:52:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xc811e8…
07-27 02:49:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x2f6548…
07-27 02:47:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x7c6304…
07-27 02:47:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x3e547f…
07-27 02:46:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,635	80¢	$1,308	0x1a3d5c…
07-27 02:45:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x9ac54e…
07-27 02:43:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13,178	80¢	$10,520	0x8dea7a…
07-25 00:36:15	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	4,061	98¢	$4,000	0x615f42…
07-25 00:35:45	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	25,381	98¢	$24,994	0x2f5dd8…
05-26 16:16:17	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	516	97¢	$499	0xdc7911…
05-26 16:16:15	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x43422e…
05-26 16:14:56	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	73	97¢	$70	0xf5f8e1…
05-26 16:14:35	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x276052…
05-26 16:12:29	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x098d73…
05-26 16:12:28	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xe12301…