Annual-Commercial — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$206

Unrealized P&L

-$103

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$9.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

$1.31K

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 10-14 02:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

85% 65% +$200

Politics

15% 75% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes		+1,851	$1,183	56¢	$1.0K	-$137	10-14 02:25
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes		-278	-$298	95¢	$-264	+$34	08-23 22:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	16	$1.2K	1,851	0	+1,851	open	—	10-14 02:25
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	6	$1.1K	733	1,011	-278	open	—	08-23 22:02
Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?	3	$1.0K	551	551	+0	Yes	+$59	09-02 20:45
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?	4	$979	529	529	+0	Yes	-$21	08-25 19:48
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	3	$710	660	106	+554	Yes	+$45	08-08 22:37
Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	3	$482	270	270	+0	Yes	+$12	08-28 19:22
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?	4	$465	252	252	+0	No	+$12	08-28 19:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	3	$378	411	0	+411	No	+$33	06-15 01:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$372	256	256	+0	No	+$1	06-15 01:47
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$337	238	238	+0	No	+$137	06-02 20:07
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$303	177	177	+0	No	+$48	04-30 17:46
will tropical storm karina strengthen to a hurricane	2	$273	144	144	+0	Yes	+$12	08-29 22:48
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	10	$261	1,227	308	+919	No	-$39	10-06 05:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$259	161	161	+0	No	+$34	04-23 13:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$245	264	264	+0	No	-$55	06-15 01:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$227	137	137	+0	No	+$27	04-22 18:25
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	3	$202	105	105	+0	No	+$8	07-27 03:33
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	2	$197	123	123	+0	open	—	08-25 19:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$143	286	286	+0	open	—	08-08 22:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$117	79	79	+0	No	+$17	05-04 18:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$116	84	84	+0	No	+$23	05-04 18:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$112	62	62	+0	No	+$12	04-22 18:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$112	83	83	+0	No	+$12	04-24 00:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$62	103	0	+103	Yes	-$62	04-24 00:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$51	69	69	+0	Yes	-$49	06-15 19:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1	$50	172	0	+172	No	-$50	04-30 17:48
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	1	$36	49	0	+49	No	+$13	05-04 18:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$28	291	291	+0	No	-$18	05-17 05:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	2	$6	30	30	+0	No	-$4	06-15 19:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 02:25:59	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	22	73¢	$16	0x12d5d2…
10-06 05:47:15	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x7d0ab7…
10-06 05:40:24	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xeb83cc…
10-06 05:40:19	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xdae174…
10-06 05:40:10	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xb36e12…
10-06 05:40:06	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x94c82a…
10-06 05:15:01	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	33	73¢	$24	0x5ee6e6…
10-06 01:56:14	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	30¢	$9	0xa54a63…
10-06 01:55:46	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	93	73¢	$68	0x7ebf0f…
10-06 01:52:49	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x88ffc2…
10-06 01:52:49	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	SELL	202	39¢	$79	0x38dae4…
09-02 20:46:39	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	624	70¢	$439	0xfee9b4…
09-02 20:46:13	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	782	13¢	$100	0x869596…
09-02 20:45:34	Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?	Yes	SELL	551	100¢	$549	0x8ff0d7…
08-29 22:50:06	will tropical storm lowell strengthen to a hurricane	Yes	BUY	149	94¢	$140	0xb37783…
08-29 22:48:55	will tropical storm karina strengthen to a hurricane	Yes	SELL	144	99¢	$142	0x0753ed…
08-28 19:22:51	will tropical storm karina strengthen to a hurricane	Yes	BUY	144	91¢	$131	0xe09080…
08-28 19:22:36	will tropical storm lowell strengthen to a hurricane	Yes	BUY	402	87¢	$350	0xc21277…
08-28 19:22:18	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	270	91¢	$247	0xe987e6…
08-28 19:22:15	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	252	95¢	$239	0x7e166c…
08-25 19:49:22	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	90¢	$128	0xa121d4…
08-25 19:48:55	Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?	Yes	SELL	143	90¢	$129	0xf1cafa…
08-25 19:48:10	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	147	64¢	$94	0x36c8d7…
08-25 19:47:36	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	SELL	123	78¢	$97	0xfcbedf…
08-25 03:37:36	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	214	64¢	$137	0xef3c62…
08-24 13:56:30	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0x49658b…
08-24 13:56:18	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	1	61¢	$0	0x14eb21…
08-24 12:51:03	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0x532bdb…
08-24 07:50:09	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x81754b…
08-24 07:49:04	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xfd4eb4…
08-24 00:05:10	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xf1d81f…
08-23 22:17:34	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x8e46e9…
08-23 22:09:04	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x28318b…
08-23 22:03:39	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xcb8447…
08-23 22:02:24	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	566	67¢	$382	0x9fa30a…
08-23 21:59:52	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xe2838d…
08-23 21:58:46	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	101	90¢	$91	0xb830e3…
08-23 21:56:37	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	388	51¢	$200	0x37eee0…
08-23 21:56:21	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	445	69¢	$309	0xc5c552…
08-22 07:10:06	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Yes	BUY	62	70¢	$44	0x9f8ae5…
08-22 07:09:45	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x72494b…
08-22 07:08:48	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	88¢	$150	0x63f661…
08-22 07:08:28	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	444	11¢	$50	0xf2a96f…
08-22 07:07:03	will there be a super el nino this winter 202627 20260721221614682	Yes	SELL	386	91¢	$350	0x5c4497…
08-14 03:00:43	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	77	68¢	$52	0xdf75e0…
08-14 02:57:40	will there be a super el nino this winter 202627 20260721221614682	Yes	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x33b26c…
08-14 02:57:31	will there be a super el nino this winter 202627 20260721221614682	Yes	BUY	320	94¢	$300	0x69292a…
08-08 22:38:51	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	65	65¢	$42	0x051b3b…
08-08 22:38:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	286	15¢	$43	0x920310…
08-08 22:38:09	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	152	65¢	$98	0xefd4ce…
08-08 22:37:43	Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	106	95¢	$100	0xf04aeb…
07-27 03:36:58	Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	323	96¢	$310	0x203707…
07-27 03:36:00	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	439	46¢	$200	0x42613c…
07-27 03:33:33	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	105	99¢	$105	0xe03f84…
06-15 19:21:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x6ccc60…
06-15 19:20:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xb2908e…
06-15 19:20:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	2¢	$1	0x91848f…
06-15 01:49:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	193	97¢	$187	0x0f7812…
06-15 01:47:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	256	73¢	$187	0xaa04d3…
06-15 01:46:01	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	103	92¢	$95	0xe6a667…
06-15 01:45:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	264	36¢	$95	0x1bf0cb…
06-02 20:09:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	47	79¢	$37	0xc83f5f…
06-02 20:08:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xbc853c…
06-02 20:08:05	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x8e8458…
06-02 20:07:35	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	238	100¢	$237	0xad0931…
06-02 20:06:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	62	79¢	$49	0x21b598…
05-30 19:18:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	109	84¢	$92	0x7370b9…
05-30 19:17:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x8fba3f…
05-30 19:16:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xf0862c…
05-30 19:14:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x6a5416…
05-30 19:14:32	Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x6bb7e7…
05-17 05:47:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x1f8568…
05-17 05:46:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	SELL	291	2¢	$5	0x8ec94d…
05-04 18:10:56	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	49	74¢	$36	0xa72c8d…
05-04 18:10:46	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x7e3032…
05-04 18:10:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	79	84¢	$67	0x7690d1…
05-04 18:10:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	84	83¢	$69	0x030940…
04-30 17:49:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	291	8¢	$23	0xc4311b…
04-30 17:48:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x2d91f0…
04-30 17:47:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x82320f…
04-30 17:46:18	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	177	99¢	$176	0x8ca513…
04-24 00:17:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	103	60¢	$62	0xd99c2c…
04-24 00:15:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	83	74¢	$62	0x8a6115…
04-23 13:51:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	84	56¢	$47	0x7a4f5e…
04-23 13:50:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xceb0e5…
04-23 13:50:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xa013d0…
04-23 13:47:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	161	91¢	$147	0x0d9e6b…
04-22 18:26:08	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	177	72¢	$127	0xfbe4ec…
04-22 18:25:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	137	93¢	$127	0x376699…
04-22 18:18:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	80¢	$62	0x9991fd…
04-22 18:16:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x66625b…
04-19 15:26:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x0ffd6a…
04-19 15:25:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xef8220…
04-19 15:24:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x15a6e1…
04-19 15:23:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xdc6fad…