Remorseful-Island — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$100

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved

121

Trades

2,658

lifetime

Volume

$9.96M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.75K

Open exposure

$228.5K

15 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-26 15:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Politics

58% 100% +$13,478

Other

32% 98% +$14,071

Sports

5% 100% +$800

Crypto

5% 100% +$2,157

Tech

1% 100% +$61

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+51,824	$49,301	96¢	$49.8K	+$450	10-23 13:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+38,699	$38,544	100¢	$38.7K	+$116	10-21 19:35
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+30,000	$29,185	96¢	$28.8K	-$430	10-24 11:49
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+25,000	$23,963	96¢	$23.9K	-$26	10-23 07:39
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	+23,940	$23,764	100¢	$23.8K	+$68	10-23 20:13
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+18,049	$17,598	98¢	$17.6K	-$1	10-24 15:35
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	+16,037	$15,549	97¢	$15.5K	-$17	10-22 01:58
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	+8,453	$8,421	100¢	$8.4K	+$19	10-24 13:30
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	+8,000	$7,907	98¢	$7.8K	-$91	10-23 19:33
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+8,500	$7,210	84¢	$7.2K	-$28	10-23 14:14
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+5,000	$4,935	99¢	$4.9K	+$2	10-20 20:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+932	$860	96¢	$895	+$34	10-26 15:38
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?	No	+491	$486	99¢	$487	+$0	10-19 19:08
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	+416	$406	98¢	$408	+$2	10-24 13:27
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	+260	$247	95¢	$248	+$1	10-24 00:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	76	$499.2K	500,000	0	+500,000	Yes	+$800	07-08 02:37
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	21	$493.1K	494,087	0	+494,087	Yes	+$944	03-12 05:11
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	26	$490.6K	491,354	0	+491,354	Yes	+$791	04-19 15:22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	14	$488.4K	490,345	0	+490,345	Yes	+$1,949	04-07 21:43
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$469.8K	470,710	0	+470,710	No	+$865	05-21 16:16
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	53	$457.0K	459,147	0	+459,147	No	+$2,157	06-03 13:08
will iran strike israel on march 10	68	$419.1K	420,000	0	+420,000	Yes	+$920	03-17 01:47
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	11	$393.8K	394,662	0	+394,662	No	+$856	04-30 20:38
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	11	$368.6K	369,706	0	+369,706	No	+$1,090	05-11 04:01
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	25	$306.8K	307,767	0	+307,767	Yes	+$991	03-24 19:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	33	$305.6K	306,283	0	+306,283	Yes	+$707	06-17 08:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$299.7K	300,000	0	+300,000	Yes	+$300	04-09 20:32
will iran strike israel on march 4	28	$299.7K	300,000	0	+300,000	Yes	+$300	03-09 07:32
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	45	$233.7K	234,034	0	+234,034	No	+$369	04-01 21:34
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	14	$224.2K	224,457	0	+224,457	Yes	+$224	04-23 12:32
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	32	$206.9K	207,312	0	+207,312	Yes	+$415	03-24 02:14
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	129	$201.8K	202,814	0	+202,814	Yes	+$1,028	05-28 16:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	6	$200.0K	200,657	0	+200,657	No	+$642	07-14 04:49
will trump say jesus this week march 8	42	$199.6K	200,000	0	+200,000	Yes	+$400	03-11 15:42
us strikes iraq by february 28	35	$190.9K	191,098	0	+191,098	Yes	+$191	03-05 17:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$169.5K	169,971	0	+169,971	No	+$510	07-29 02:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	4	$155.0K	155,332	0	+155,332	No	+$331	08-28 20:47
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	55	$149.9K	150,000	0	+150,000	Yes	+$150	04-22 13:32
will iran strike israel on march 6	22	$143.6K	143,743	0	+143,743	No	+$144	03-11 21:02
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	20	$124.7K	125,000	0	+125,000	Yes	+$275	06-16 19:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	26	$120.9K	121,916	0	+121,916	No	+$1,005	05-26 08:09
Trump out as President by April 30?	44	$108.1K	53,734	54,734	-1,000	No	+$151	04-30 20:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	31	$102.1K	102,418	0	+102,418	No	+$357	03-31 15:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	193	$101.5K	104,193	0	+104,193	No	+$2,702	07-01 20:51
will trump say waste this week march 1	15	$100.9K	101,000	0	+101,000	Yes	+$101	03-05 11:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 15:38:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	932	92¢	$860	0x4bbf26…
10-24 15:35:29	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	4,000	97¢	$3,892	0x49ebc9…
10-24 13:30:24	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x942a19…
10-24 13:27:42	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	400	98¢	$390	0xe2f087…
10-24 13:22:15	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x91091b…
10-24 11:49:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	97¢	$4,860	0x9d3393…
10-24 10:30:26	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa1e2d1…
10-24 09:40:20	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xacd576…
10-24 09:40:20	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x00ebdc…
10-24 08:05:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	937	97¢	$912	0x89ac33…
10-24 08:00:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x06d632…
10-24 07:30:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x2a7709…
10-24 06:11:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	282	97¢	$274	0xcf0a13…
10-24 05:48:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	365	97¢	$355	0x258b56…
10-24 05:31:44	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4c7bf5…
10-24 05:17:32	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x8ab8ce…
10-24 05:11:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	358	97¢	$348	0x4ef5eb…
10-24 04:46:15	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x3e1859…
10-24 04:25:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x6b0f38…
10-24 03:29:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x8429b1…
10-24 03:21:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xd2e19c…
10-24 02:34:45	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xa944d0…
10-24 02:34:45	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$61	0x432045…
10-24 00:48:38	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	251	95¢	$238	0x4ece16…
10-24 00:47:45	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x4e6e8c…
10-24 00:22:27	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	339	97¢	$330	0x6f1d2b…
10-24 00:04:59	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	392	97¢	$382	0xd9dffa…
10-24 00:02:47	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x86438d…
10-23 23:58:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	81	97¢	$79	0x4fd11b…
10-23 23:53:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0xcfe21d…
10-23 23:48:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0x0d72ee…
10-23 23:48:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0x40a423…
10-23 23:48:09	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0xe7d63f…
10-23 23:48:00	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0xcf744a…
10-23 23:47:53	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0x0ad143…
10-23 23:47:47	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0x20894c…
10-23 23:43:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x2b196f…
10-23 23:42:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x0fde79…
10-23 23:42:05	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	305	97¢	$297	0xcbe85f…
10-23 23:41:38	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	305	97¢	$297	0x8a5f77…
10-23 23:41:21	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x31bf7f…
10-23 23:41:02	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	305	97¢	$297	0x514554…
10-23 23:40:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	305	97¢	$297	0x9f4a06…
10-23 23:39:47	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	305	97¢	$297	0x64e5fc…
10-23 23:39:06	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	356	97¢	$346	0xa8b34f…
10-23 23:38:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	356	97¢	$346	0x3cb147…
10-23 23:38:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	356	97¢	$346	0x87a0ee…
10-23 23:37:56	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	356	97¢	$346	0x4908b1…
10-23 23:37:48	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	356	97¢	$346	0xacac60…
10-23 23:37:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0x8b7570…
10-23 23:37:21	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0x582e5b…
10-23 23:37:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	407	97¢	$396	0xb6edf6…
10-23 23:37:05	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	117	97¢	$114	0xe4397c…
10-23 20:13:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x0d8a5a…
10-23 19:33:44	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,940	0x0c1258…
10-23 18:42:18	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0xa1c1b8…
10-23 16:55:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	2,519	99¢	$2,504	0x65eaab…
10-23 16:34:08	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,166	100¢	$3,156	0xa504bf…
10-23 14:58:18	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xaa1c9f…
10-23 14:14:17	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	83¢	$830	0xe347a9…
10-23 13:01:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,894	0xacde5f…
10-23 12:51:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,302	95¢	$1,234	0x8f0d76…
10-23 11:16:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	3,000	95¢	$2,850	0x9409f1…
10-23 08:52:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf199ec…
10-23 07:39:36	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	133	96¢	$127	0x4f2f4d…
10-23 07:39:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,910	0x4f6e55…
10-23 05:52:51	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1,367	96¢	$1,313	0x0d79a8…
10-23 05:52:44	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	959	98¢	$935	0xd03660…
10-23 00:59:05	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	544	96¢	$523	0x499297…
10-22 23:26:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	905	96¢	$867	0x58af74…
10-22 22:18:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,916	0x820c13…
10-22 21:39:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	95	96¢	$91	0x1a911a…
10-22 21:27:00	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	128	96¢	$123	0x7c1fc5…
10-22 21:08:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1,828	96¢	$1,757	0xaf469a…
10-22 18:07:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	278	99¢	$276	0xcb94d9…
10-22 01:58:53	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x86f3d4…
10-22 00:33:47	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	471	97¢	$459	0xd10233…
10-21 20:31:21	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1,529	98¢	$1,491	0xba1a48…
10-21 20:31:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	2,084	98¢	$2,033	0xce4ea2…
10-21 20:03:00	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	346	84¢	$290	0xf51bfd…
10-21 20:02:51	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	84¢	$33	0x973abb…
10-21 20:02:51	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	84¢	$67	0x0827b6…
10-21 20:02:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	84¢	$126	0xf080ae…
10-21 20:02:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xe4630b…
10-21 20:02:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xd50902…
10-21 20:02:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x776e10…
10-21 20:02:50	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	84¢	$120	0x02aa81…
10-21 19:37:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0x15864f…
10-21 19:35:14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xd2ef4b…
10-21 19:09:33	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	812	97¢	$786	0x5385f7…
10-21 18:52:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14,000	100¢	$13,944	0x6f30c8…
10-21 18:51:08	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14,000	100¢	$13,944	0xf4aa20…
10-21 18:42:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	199	100¢	$198	0x5a8e49…
10-21 16:05:00	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1,788	97¢	$1,733	0xfe4060…
10-21 13:01:47	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xb63319…
10-21 12:58:36	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x9ac2de…
10-21 12:58:32	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x606ae8…
10-21 12:37:47	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc82d6d…
10-21 12:09:03	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$43	0xe345fd…
10-21 11:15:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	825	96¢	$788	0xa9ea2c…