Pessimistic-Religion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$79

Unrealized P&L

+$30

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

306

lifetime

Volume

$46.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$151

Open exposure

$2.16K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-08 22:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$79

Other

36% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+3,200	$2,130	68¢	$2.2K	+$30	06-08 22:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	32	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-23 12:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	5	$5.5K	2,000	3,561	-1,561	open	—	04-30 10:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	20	$4.3K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	04-24 12:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$4.1K	6,400	0	+6,400	open	—	06-08 22:37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	27	$2.3K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	04-29 15:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	15	$2.2K	2,690	2,690	+0	Yes	+$54	04-26 15:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$25	04-24 14:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	04-23 17:12
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	10	$1.3K	1,370	835	+535	open	—	04-07 19:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$1.2K	1,280	0	+1,280	open	—	03-19 22:43
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	7	$1.1K	568	568	+0	open	—	03-24 15:39
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	9	$1.1K	600	553	+47	open	—	04-30 02:51
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	2	$970	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-26 11:44
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$962	500	500	+0	open	—	03-16 10:47
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	13	$797	600	600	+0	open	—	03-31 12:40
Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	5	$783	410	410	+0	open	—	04-29 13:13
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$775	500	500	+0	open	—	04-20 14:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$720	800	800	+0	open	—	04-15 14:26
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$657	900	0	+900	open	—	03-23 12:49
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$622	600	600	+0	open	—	04-30 07:54
ukraine hits moscow by march 31 2026	2	$560	300	300	+0	open	—	03-28 22:13
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	8	$557	650	650	+0	open	—	03-26 02:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	9	$549	600	600	+0	open	—	05-10 16:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$525	320	320	+0	open	—	04-23 18:07
nba mia was 2026 04 10	2	$488	530	0	+530	open	—	04-10 22:00
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	10	$393	300	300	+0	open	—	04-16 02:36
will trump visit china by march 31	8	$387	300	300	+0	open	—	03-16 22:04
ukraine election called by march 31 2026	4	$386	200	200	+0	open	—	03-31 10:22
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	4	$381	300	300	+0	open	—	03-24 13:55
Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	11	$366	200	200	+0	open	—	04-29 18:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 22:37:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,800	60¢	$1,080	0xddde1e…
05-29 15:02:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,400	75¢	$1,050	0x7e891f…
05-13 14:19:36	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Ducks	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x1d6b0b…
05-13 14:17:27	Golden Knights vs. Ducks	Golden Knights	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xad7863…
05-10 16:02:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x61a05f…
04-30 11:45:30	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	520	1¢	$7	0x967e31…
04-30 11:45:24	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	SELL	300	35¢	$105	0x1f7cda…
04-30 11:40:12	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	SELL	300	4¢	$12	0xcdbbc3…
04-30 11:39:16	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	300	1¢	$2	0x086732…
04-30 10:34:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,400	100¢	$3,389	0x3733fa…
04-30 10:32:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xc03676…
04-30 10:27:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	121	100¢	$121	0x70bb9a…
04-30 09:20:22	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	BUY	300	5¢	$16	0x7d1dfb…
04-30 09:20:06	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0x7c1435…
04-30 09:19:28	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	300	2¢	$5	0xba92fc…
04-30 09:19:00	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	520	2¢	$11	0xb9b8c6…
04-30 07:54:48	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	SELL	600	6¢	$34	0xaf12d2…
04-30 02:51:28	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	117	92¢	$108	0x452106…
04-30 02:47:38	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	105	92¢	$97	0x6c2e14…
04-30 02:47:34	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa8f178…
04-30 02:47:28	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0x9ff6d0…
04-30 02:45:18	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	223	92¢	$205	0xa2ae88…
04-30 02:43:42	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	SELL	89	92¢	$82	0x688377…
04-29 18:18:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0xc6b073…
04-29 18:02:36	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	146	92¢	$135	0x137d5b…
04-29 18:01:40	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	32	92¢	$30	0x4e668e…
04-29 17:49:46	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3ba2df…
04-29 17:49:08	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x730b79…
04-29 16:59:12	Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	SELL	53	89¢	$47	0x42e8f3…
04-29 15:34:22	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	140	91¢	$128	0x5df769…
04-29 15:31:46	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x0e8458…
04-29 15:29:36	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x62de63…
04-29 15:20:36	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa3fe63…
04-29 15:10:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	75	59¢	$44	0x00c9b4…
04-29 15:10:20	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	200	59¢	$118	0x286090…
04-29 15:05:28	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	312	90¢	$282	0x374c5b…
04-29 14:57:28	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	47	90¢	$42	0xae17f6…
04-29 14:56:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xfb52da…
04-29 14:53:44	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xec0074…
04-29 14:48:28	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x80cde7…
04-29 14:35:52	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	241	90¢	$218	0x8b8747…
04-29 14:34:18	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xc8db33…
04-29 14:31:24	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x29caf9…
04-29 14:29:50	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	13	59¢	$8	0xf8001e…
04-29 13:55:50	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	109	59¢	$64	0xf375a3…
04-29 13:13:10	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x5df963…
04-29 13:08:22	Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	53	88¢	$47	0xa0e163…
04-29 13:05:06	Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	58	88¢	$51	0xb13a44…
04-29 13:00:48	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3e4962…
04-29 13:00:46	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	199	95¢	$189	0x14ff6f…
04-29 12:55:56	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	BUY	600	98¢	$588	0xc8fcec…
04-29 12:54:06	Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x5b8d96…
04-29 12:51:42	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	210	96¢	$202	0x409c93…
04-29 12:36:54	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0xe6e982…
04-29 02:55:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	68	60¢	$41	0x4418c8…
04-29 02:50:46	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x6a68f9…
04-29 02:48:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x8a209e…
04-29 02:45:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x697606…
04-29 02:37:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xb9803b…
04-29 02:26:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x106058…
04-29 02:25:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xc16334…
04-29 02:17:18	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x6a44f3…
04-29 02:13:52	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xeb87c6…
04-29 02:08:48	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0x8fdd62…
04-29 02:01:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0xc10b5e…
04-29 02:00:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2809db…
04-29 01:30:40	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x66a72a…
04-26 21:52:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	47¢	$10	0x849091…
04-26 21:47:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	47¢	$15	0x96d890…
04-26 21:44:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xe0e035…
04-26 21:00:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	47¢	$48	0x6f45bb…
04-26 21:00:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	243	47¢	$114	0xd7ada4…
04-26 21:00:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	47¢	$70	0x195499…
04-26 20:46:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0x1b467c…
04-26 20:21:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	45¢	$270	0x1dab96…
04-26 15:24:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,690	42¢	$1,130	0x61ae8a…
04-25 10:31:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	436	40¢	$175	0xc220bf…
04-24 21:00:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7cd264…
04-24 20:45:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xae249f…
04-24 16:32:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0x547f62…
04-24 14:23:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,100	96¢	$1,059	0x1c72ce…
04-24 12:28:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	800	96¢	$768	0x39427c…
04-24 12:09:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	435	95¢	$413	0x25013a…
04-24 12:09:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcccd0f…
04-24 12:09:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x7ef011…
04-24 12:08:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0xb0900a…
04-24 12:08:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x071457…
04-24 12:07:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$27	0x994679…
04-24 11:27:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	346	96¢	$332	0xb1ff26…
04-24 11:25:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x9058dc…
04-24 11:25:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0xa26165…
04-24 11:25:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x24003c…
04-24 11:25:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	334	96¢	$320	0xd214cc…
04-24 11:22:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	800	95¢	$760	0xa80485…
04-24 06:09:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$985	0x5388f2…
04-24 01:10:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	40¢	$7	0x1b053c…
04-23 18:07:00	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	320	85¢	$272	0xbcb5e0…
04-23 17:29:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7cf5eb…
04-23 17:12:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	800	99¢	$794	0xc8a346…
04-23 16:22:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x20a2fe…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	43	$118.9K	819	06-07 06:20
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	42	$539.7K	9,030	06-09 00:19
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	42	$315.8K	1,024	06-08 08:07
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	38	$16.2M	24,322	06-09 22:58
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	38	$151.5K	13,321	05-31 20:57
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	35	$60.9K	6,213	03-28 06:37
Active-Hypothermia 0xc3cd…816c	34	$266.6K	4,627	05-29 17:08
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	33	$18.6K	1,544	05-29 22:06