Deadly-Cofactor — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$22

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

96 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$882 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$60

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-22

last 09-06 21:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Politics

75% 41% +$85

Other

19% 12% -$66

Sports

6% 0% -$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	+400	$32	6¢	$26	-$6	09-01 17:51
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+451	$18	4¢	$16	-$2	09-02 17:43
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	+91	$14	8¢	$7	-$7	09-06 21:27
US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	+194	$10	3¢	$6	-$4	08-26 18:13
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	+116	$5	4¢	$5	+$0	08-21 15:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	5	$134	104	104	+0	Yes	+$46	08-31 21:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$91	83	83	+0	No	+$71	05-23 07:23
iran closes its airspace by june 15	2	$74	59	59	+0	Yes	+$34	06-07 21:20
Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?	2	$37	33	33	+0	Yes	+$27	08-30 22:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	1	$32	400	0	+400	open	—	09-01 17:51
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	13	$32	7,812	0	+7,812	Yes	-$32	05-30 06:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	-$1	05-26 21:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$27	24	24	+0	Yes	+$7	06-11 14:57
us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	2	$26	19	19	+0	No	+$10	08-21 14:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	4	$25	533	0	+533	Yes	-$25	05-23 21:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$22	327	148	+179	No	+$2	05-26 09:16
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$20	15	15	+0	No	+$0	06-10 21:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	74	0	+74	Yes	-$20	05-22 18:01
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$20	91	0	+91	No	-$20	05-22 18:11
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$18	167	42	+125	No	-$2	07-06 02:06
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	4	$18	451	0	+451	open	—	09-02 17:43
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	2	$17	376	0	+376	No	-$17	09-02 17:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	2	$15	650	0	+650	No	-$15	09-02 17:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	2	$14	23	23	+0	open	—	08-30 22:58
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	2	$14	91	0	+91	open	—	09-06 21:27
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	3	$13	454	0	+454	No	-$13	06-11 14:58
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$12	24	24	+0	No	+$2	05-27 09:31
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$11	2,214	0	+2,214	No	-$11	05-24 06:30
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	1	$10	100	0	+100	No	-$10	09-02 17:48
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	1	$10	221	0	+221	open	—	08-26 18:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	1	$10	76	0	+76	No	-$10	06-07 21:29
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	1	$10	265	0	+265	No	-$10	06-07 21:35
US x China Military clash before 2027?	2	$10	194	0	+194	open	—	08-26 18:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$9	295	0	+295	No	-$9	05-23 19:01
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	1	$8	200	0	+200	Yes	-$8	09-01 17:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-06 21:27:19	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0xfd0a23…
09-02 17:48:19	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x598dae…
09-02 17:45:22	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	158	4¢	$7	0x17282f…
09-02 17:43:27	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0xf67aca…
09-02 17:42:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x2769e0…
09-01 17:53:33	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x883af3…
09-01 17:52:37	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	218	5¢	$10	0x342be5…
09-01 17:51:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x5ae5df…
09-01 17:51:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0xe10538…
09-01 17:47:27	Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0xb550d0…
08-31 21:20:06	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	87¢	$90	0xe9de95…
08-30 22:58:25	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0xae8166…
08-30 22:58:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	40¢	$9	0x04ab06…
08-30 22:50:03	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xa98fac…
08-30 22:48:48	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xdfcb35…
08-30 22:48:28	Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xcf178e…
08-27 21:15:24	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	3¢	$3	0x6faff7…
08-27 21:14:12	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7520ae…
08-27 21:05:09	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026 21	Yes	SELL	12	30¢	$4	0xabdb63…
08-26 18:41:04	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	221	5¢	$10	0x5459d8…
08-26 18:37:48	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0x2d0aaa…
08-26 18:37:16	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026 21	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xf62fba…
08-26 18:33:21	will somalia join the mecca agreement by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x0c816e…
08-26 18:30:34	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0xc1b872…
08-26 18:29:48	Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x5c5839…
08-26 18:17:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8c74e5…
08-26 18:17:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x59b0ea…
08-26 18:13:27	US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	4¢	$5	0x8a723a…
08-21 15:09:06	will there be houthi military action against israel by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$4	0xe4d1d5…
08-21 15:07:58	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0xde9902…
08-21 15:07:33	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	Yes	BUY	117	4¢	$5	0x466210…
08-21 15:03:03	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xf32565…
08-21 14:39:15	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0xa91947…
08-04 13:14:53	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0x132b0a…
07-06 02:06:11	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	42	20¢	$8	0x75783b…
06-11 17:25:34	Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	65	11¢	$7	0x791d8a…
06-11 17:23:00	Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0x45bdc4…
06-11 14:58:15	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	Yes	BUY	180	3¢	$5	0x451923…
06-11 14:57:51	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	Yes	BUY	182	3¢	$5	0x91d447…
06-11 14:57:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	24	71¢	$17	0x4a29f4…
06-10 21:31:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	15	69¢	$10	0x995f89…
06-10 17:36:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	Yes	BUY	93	3¢	$3	0xd9ae6d…
06-08 06:17:40	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x029883…
06-07 21:35:09	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	BUY	265	4¢	$10	0x97ecbd…
06-07 21:34:46	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x08b219…
06-07 21:31:30	will jd vance attend nato summit	Yes	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0x00fb62…
06-07 21:31:25	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0xd16472…
06-07 21:29:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0x15c981…
06-07 21:29:21	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	154	3¢	$5	0x5eea42…
06-07 21:25:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x9aa8ff…
06-07 21:20:21	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	59	92¢	$54	0xde9fc2…
05-30 06:29:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfba088…
05-28 18:51:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x7bdd52…
05-28 18:50:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x8bf6d7…
05-28 18:50:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x157c34…
05-28 18:50:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$6	0xbc7925…
05-28 18:49:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xb564e7…
05-27 20:27:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x1822bf…
05-27 20:27:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xe0f351…
05-27 20:26:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x0a2d4b…
05-27 20:26:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xd73ce8…
05-27 09:31:27	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	30¢	$7	0xce4fa2…
05-26 21:27:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xc6355a…
05-26 21:24:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x7b2b64…
05-26 21:23:29	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf9f98a…
05-26 09:16:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0x1476b2…
05-26 09:12:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0x855ee9…
05-25 22:20:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0x5b73cc…
05-24 20:09:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x45963d…
05-24 06:59:10	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May?	Yes	BUY	121	2¢	$3	0xa81232…
05-24 06:38:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x513190…
05-24 06:30:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x308514…
05-23 21:03:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0xac7c5b…
05-23 19:35:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	148	8¢	$12	0x2476c0…
05-23 19:01:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x9e88c2…
05-23 18:52:41	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x115537…
05-23 18:48:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0x6250b9…
05-23 18:44:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa29865…
05-23 18:43:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6d1d59…
05-23 18:42:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	227	2¢	$5	0x4c59b7…
05-23 11:47:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$5	0x4b01ca…
05-23 11:47:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xe18df1…
05-23 11:45:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$5	0x13234f…
05-23 11:17:50	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x5ecd6d…
05-23 09:33:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xcbdb2d…
05-23 07:23:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	83	97¢	$81	0xb304a0…
05-23 06:43:31	US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xc619f8…
05-22 18:36:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xefeb7e…
05-22 18:24:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x7fb439…
05-22 18:24:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0xd59cd3…
05-22 18:19:14	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x6daf31…
05-22 18:11:22	Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x5e8138…
05-22 18:08:36	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xad596d…
05-22 18:07:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x709e05…
05-22 18:01:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xb4abe6…
05-22 18:01:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x9ac810…