Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

38.3%

Resolved

Trades

837

lifetime

Volume

$829

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-10-10

last 10-21 23:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

48% 43% +$4

Politics

47% 25% -$6

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 293 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	No		+0	$0	80¢	$0	$0	10-19 22:22
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes		+0	$0	29¢	$0	$0	10-21 23:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	16	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	10-20 15:37
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	9	$10	20	20	+0	open	—	10-21 23:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$10	20	20	+0	open	—	10-21 23:28
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?	8	$8	7	7	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	8	$8	7	7	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	8	$7	18	18	+0	No	-$1	10-20 15:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	8	$7	24	24	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?	8	$7	9	9	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	2	$7	7	7	+0	Yes	+$5	10-15 13:32
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$7	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	10-20 15:19
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	6	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	10-21 23:26
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	6	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	10-20 15:18
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	5	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	6	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	10-20 15:18
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	6	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	10-21 23:25
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	6	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	10-20 15:36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	6	$6	11	11	+0	open	—	10-20 15:19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	6	$6	15	15	+0	No	$0	10-20 15:19
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	+$4	10-15 13:32
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	6	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	10-19 22:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	6	$6	14	14	+0	open	—	10-20 15:19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	6	$6	13	13	+0	Yes	$0	10-20 15:19
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	4	$5	28	28	+0	open	—	10-19 22:35
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	4	$5	14	14	+0	open	—	10-20 15:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	4	$5	8	8	+0	open	—	10-21 23:26
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$5	8	8	+0	No	+$1	10-20 15:18
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?	2	$4	5	5	+0	Yes	+$2	10-15 13:33
Will the median home value in NYC be between $497,000 and $510,000 on December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	10-16 13:10
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	4	$4	5	5	+0	No	+$0	10-20 15:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 23:28:53	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x508997…
10-21 23:28:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x2bb962…
10-21 23:28:35	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xadbcc9…
10-21 23:27:18	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0xd48791…
10-21 23:27:17	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x3cde77…
10-21 23:27:15	Will "Chains of Love" from Wuthering Heights be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2e9c00…
10-21 23:27:14	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x841ad0…
10-21 23:27:12	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x5a1a7f…
10-21 23:27:11	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x3dce70…
10-21 23:27:11	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x118254…
10-21 23:27:09	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x1a17b7…
10-21 23:27:05	Will "Ink" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xf60b09…
10-21 23:27:03	Will "32B" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x353948…
10-21 23:27:02	Will "The Man That I Wave At" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x73c7b2…
10-21 23:27:00	Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x68c110…
10-21 23:26:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x0fb78e…
10-21 23:26:56	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0xf9ae97…
10-21 23:26:54	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x48d111…
10-21 23:26:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x5f62c1…
10-21 23:26:51	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x607c07…
10-21 23:26:50	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0xc662c3…
10-21 23:26:50	Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xa44bb6…
10-21 23:26:48	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x2cb2d8…
10-21 23:26:45	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x112c76…
10-21 23:26:44	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x56a34f…
10-21 23:26:42	Will Please win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc0878a…
10-21 23:26:41	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x4fc95c…
10-21 23:26:39	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x6e3b2a…
10-21 23:26:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x6c034a…
10-21 23:26:36	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x5cc0bc…
10-21 23:26:36	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x1a7ff1…
10-21 23:26:33	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x7dd3c3…
10-21 23:26:32	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x69ad75…
10-21 23:26:30	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x3a0eb3…
10-21 23:26:29	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x9abb80…
10-21 23:26:27	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x5b07b4…
10-21 23:26:26	House favorite on November 2 wins the election?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x07e1cf…
10-21 23:26:24	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x76b4ef…
10-21 23:26:23	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xf223d6…
10-21 23:26:23	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0xee5be5…
10-21 23:26:21	Will Neil Morton win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x70a565…
10-21 23:26:20	Will Trevor Giertuga win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$1	0x92a9c9…
10-21 23:26:18	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x77cd38…
10-21 23:26:17	Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?	Yes	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0xee14a5…
10-21 23:26:15	Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xe40ea4…
10-21 23:26:14	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?	No	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x53f96f…
10-21 23:26:12	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x6a677b…
10-21 23:26:11	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0xfe876b…
10-21 23:26:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x996b0d…
10-21 23:26:06	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x65bf58…
10-21 23:26:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x7e8123…
10-21 23:26:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x42e427…
10-21 23:26:00	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x85e0c9…
10-21 23:26:00	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x7e8520…
10-21 23:25:59	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x790a0f…
10-21 23:25:57	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xa7a917…
10-21 23:25:56	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x505d30…
10-21 23:25:27	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xeede97…
10-21 23:06:08	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf92300…
10-21 23:06:08	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x52228a…
10-21 22:49:48	Will "Chains of Love" from Wuthering Heights be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc197d0…
10-21 22:44:33	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x139a75…
10-21 22:39:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2adb6a…
10-21 22:33:59	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc24bc6…
10-21 22:28:48	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xebcf9a…
10-21 21:37:03	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x594a9e…
10-21 21:26:51	Will "Ink" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x1cc5e2…
10-21 20:50:02	Will "32B" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x007923…
10-21 20:44:50	Will "The Man That I Wave At" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x0760fa…
10-21 19:33:02	Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1737ba…
10-21 19:27:48	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xda7b4e…
10-21 18:57:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4f2d38…
10-21 18:51:57	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x96e2d0…
10-21 18:40:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xfdf749…
10-21 18:14:12	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa27c17…
10-21 14:57:32	Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb44855…
10-21 13:18:44	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3facb1…
10-21 12:47:33	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x41db99…
10-21 12:42:30	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xd05202…
10-21 12:42:30	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc8d9f3…
10-21 12:42:30	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x885722…
10-21 12:27:14	Will Please win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xcd61c1…
10-21 12:22:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x6950ab…
10-21 12:11:54	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x40570f…
10-21 11:14:14	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x74be91…
10-21 11:08:50	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2f52dd…
10-21 10:56:26	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfc7db1…
10-21 10:51:17	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc0ee3c…
10-21 10:08:48	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe9386e…
10-21 10:08:48	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x768b4f…
10-21 07:42:42	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xaf636c…
10-21 07:37:29	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x2c7bc9…
10-21 07:32:18	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdf9a54…
10-21 07:10:02	House favorite on November 2 wins the election?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7065b5…
10-21 06:47:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8e4893…
10-21 06:32:17	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x020fa0…
10-21 03:41:27	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x230961…
10-21 03:14:45	Will Neil Morton win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x08bda0…
10-21 03:09:50	Will Trevor Giertuga win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x7cb4e3…
10-21 03:09:42	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x15641e…