Unnatural-Instrumentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$88

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

868

lifetime

Volume

$100.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$116

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-08 19:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

69% 100% +$9

Other

31% 100% +$80

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	29	$5.3K	2,727	2,799	-72	open	—	03-20 10:17
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?	9	$2.3K	1,272	1,452	-180	open	—	02-08 14:55
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	13	$2.1K	1,095	1,095	+0	open	—	04-20 17:08
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	3	$2.0K	1,050	1,050	+0	open	—	07-26 14:34
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	8	$1.9K	1,949	0	+1,949	open	—	06-28 02:38
Iran leadership change by April 30?	17	$1.7K	947	947	+0	open	—	04-29 19:54
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	7	$1.7K	892	892	+0	open	—	04-22 07:52
will mrbeast hit 470 million subscribers by january 31 634 222 492 335	5	$1.6K	798	798	+0	open	—	01-30 07:46
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	8	$1.6K	802	802	+0	open	—	02-28 08:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	9	$1.5K	820	820	+0	open	—	02-07 03:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	10	$1.5K	1,512	0	+1,512	open	—	06-16 13:25
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	8	$1.3K	763	763	+0	open	—	06-19 13:16
will democrat party dp finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	19	$1.3K	671	671	+0	open	—	02-08 12:33
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	2	$1.3K	663	663	+0	open	—	02-28 07:33
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	5	$1.3K	1,297	0	+1,297	open	—	04-05 15:53
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	4	$1.2K	1,008	200	+808	open	—	02-28 09:12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	14	$1.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-26 15:42
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	10	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	04-03 00:40
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	07-26 14:39
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	4	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-16 13:20
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	5	$1.0K	639	639	+0	open	—	06-26 16:55
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	17	$1.0K	851	353	+498	open	—	05-15 09:47
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$964	499	499	+0	open	—	04-27 09:11
will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	7	$955	500	500	+0	open	—	06-25 15:18
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	3	$931	997	0	+997	open	—	07-14 01:55
will israel strike 3 or more countries in december 2025	1	$904	905	0	+905	open	—	01-01 07:30
will the us invade iran by march 31	7	$903	530	530	+0	open	—	03-25 16:18
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	6	$876	465	465	+0	open	—	03-14 20:41
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	9	$865	527	527	+0	open	—	07-09 21:33
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	2	$864	450	450	+0	open	—	07-26 07:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 19:29:45	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0xecdd6f…
08-08 17:07:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	241	89¢	$214	0x11c045…
08-08 13:10:15	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	259	89¢	$231	0xe348fd…
08-07 17:55:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	500	90¢	$452	0x38a38a…
08-07 08:44:45	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	241	94¢	$226	0xd14e61…
07-30 08:04:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	139	93¢	$130	0xbb215c…
07-30 06:06:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x33622f…
07-30 06:06:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x74c04a…
07-30 06:06:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x774e9a…
07-30 06:06:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa93c03…
07-30 06:06:27	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb9d3bb…
07-30 06:06:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb216ad…
07-30 06:06:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x75feb6…
07-30 06:06:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9c2259…
07-30 06:06:15	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8cbd74…
07-30 06:06:09	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x739742…
07-30 04:56:38	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x3e19ff…
07-30 04:13:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	450	96¢	$434	0x6815f2…
07-26 14:39:16	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	600	91¢	$546	0x90b5e0…
07-26 14:34:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	1,050	98¢	$1,031	0x2eef7e…
07-26 07:18:57	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	450	99¢	$446	0x1d6895…
07-20 15:54:58	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	428	39¢	$167	0x1c7350…
07-20 15:47:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	174	96¢	$167	0x5e2607…
07-20 15:42:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	175	36¢	$63	0x418f23…
07-20 15:29:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	65	96¢	$63	0x3211c0…
07-16 16:51:50	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	450	93¢	$418	0x8976cb…
07-16 16:01:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	450	90¢	$405	0xa2950d…
07-16 16:01:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	195	97¢	$189	0x47148a…
07-16 15:59:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0xa06c4f…
07-16 10:21:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	450	89¢	$400	0xbd5946…
07-14 14:17:05	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	400	99¢	$397	0x802f89…
07-14 06:04:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	165	87¢	$143	0xe1b95a…
07-14 01:55:01	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0xc1b9d2…
07-14 01:44:23	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	102	96¢	$98	0x9fdf0e…
07-13 03:11:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	445	3¢	$14	0x0794f1…
07-12 00:52:49	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	450	95¢	$429	0x49431c…
07-09 21:33:29	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	517	83¢	$429	0x62a3a2…
07-09 13:29:38	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	695	92¢	$640	0x053d3b…
07-09 09:55:41	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xa3c77f…
07-09 09:55:13	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x51b93d…
07-09 09:25:14	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xd18cc3…
07-08 08:19:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	600	85¢	$510	0xa6942f…
07-07 18:33:47	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x65b3c2…
07-07 17:42:46	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	SELL	26	90¢	$23	0xb13713…
07-07 00:06:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	450	93¢	$418	0x8d1579…
07-06 23:35:26	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x7a57e9…
07-06 23:26:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	BUY	446	92¢	$410	0x92b1c0…
07-06 23:16:55	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	No	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0x9ee222…
07-05 12:19:20	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	150	82¢	$123	0x16c242…
07-04 07:27:49	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	46	95¢	$44	0xec14c4…
07-04 07:11:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	204	95¢	$193	0x9f6b0a…
07-03 21:19:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x58d39a…
07-03 15:09:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	450	4¢	$18	0x6c5b55…
07-03 09:10:59	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	450	5¢	$22	0xa5506b…
07-02 16:58:26	iran successfully targets shipping on july 3 20260625225210244	No	BUY	450	95¢	$429	0xa39c3f…
07-02 15:31:38	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	450	88¢	$396	0x5e2fb5…
07-02 14:36:44	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x5c94d0…
07-02 14:36:40	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x41c820…
07-02 14:36:32	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xf22713…
07-02 14:36:29	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x1fe8ba…
07-02 14:35:29	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	SELL	793	5¢	$40	0x21d62c…
07-02 12:53:58	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0xf766da…
07-02 12:53:46	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	28	34¢	$10	0x627c10…
07-02 12:53:44	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	61	34¢	$21	0x73cacb…
07-02 12:53:44	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	286	34¢	$97	0x3e8e90…
07-01 15:28:46	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	93	61¢	$57	0x89246f…
07-01 15:10:55	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xc32f88…
07-01 15:03:08	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xb8be26…
07-01 09:00:28	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	400	82¢	$328	0x6e9c98…
06-29 18:40:22	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x90d2c9…
06-29 16:53:38	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	95	79¢	$75	0x081b7a…
06-29 08:03:14	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x333ac8…
06-29 07:28:52	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xf60b29…
06-29 02:42:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x8acbf4…
06-28 02:38:20	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	237	96¢	$227	0xe23ac2…
06-27 20:13:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	229	99¢	$227	0xbdd86b…
06-27 16:17:50	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	83	86¢	$71	0x802fe8…
06-27 13:17:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	71	99¢	$71	0xa50759…
06-26 20:31:23	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	137	94¢	$129	0xd18099…
06-26 20:31:17	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x868fd4…
06-26 20:31:16	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x38ae8a…
06-26 20:31:16	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	92	94¢	$87	0x166622…
06-26 20:31:10	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	137	94¢	$129	0xc09fdf…
06-26 20:31:08	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x97f873…
06-26 20:31:07	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0xff4b16…
06-26 17:13:38	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0x816947…
06-26 16:55:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	639	81¢	$517	0x0b669b…
06-26 15:42:43	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	285	99¢	$283	0xff24b8…
06-26 14:55:43	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0xa17baa…
06-26 14:55:31	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x35ce93…
06-26 14:53:44	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	84	96¢	$81	0x62be1b…
06-26 14:53:34	iran full airspace closure by june 30 20260625195254148	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x500585…
06-26 14:52:22	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x0e74d5…
06-26 14:30:13	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	29	88¢	$25	0xa1e6fe…
06-26 14:28:25	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa02bf1…
06-25 16:44:56	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x189a35…
06-25 15:56:07	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x42e3a4…
06-25 15:42:58	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xbfbb33…
06-25 15:22:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	445	56¢	$249	0x3e2eb6…
06-25 15:21:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	27	89¢	$24	0xb7d5b2…