Pleasant-Complexity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.01K

Hit rate

55.6%

Resolved

Trades

158

lifetime

Volume

$166.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.05K

Open exposure

$12.1K

6 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 10-25 10:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

42% 67% -$6,659

Other

31% 84% -$3,213

Crypto

15% 67% -$4,767

Tech

11% 100% +$1,208

Sports

1% 100% +$100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+3,354	$3,000	97¢	$3.3K	+$254	10-25 10:16
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+3,199	$2,850	98¢	$3.1K	+$269	10-05 13:53
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	+2,181	$2,000	99¢	$2.2K	+$163	09-13 09:24
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,051	$1,600	84¢	$1.7K	+$133	09-02 11:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,136	$1,000	98¢	$1.1K	+$108	10-19 15:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+741	$600	92¢	$678	+$78	10-13 11:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	5	$14.8K	11,229	11,229	+0	No	-$3,116	06-15 11:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	2	$13.7K	7,275	7,275	+0	open	—	10-25 10:15
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	20	$12.2K	7,943	7,943	+0	open	—	06-14 10:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$11.9K	12,912	12,910	+2	No	-$3,143	06-01 14:19
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	2	$5.7K	3,614	3,614	+0	Yes	-$289	07-25 09:12
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$5.0K	5,053	0	+5,053	No	+$53	07-12 12:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$5.0K	2,717	2,717	+0	open	—	06-24 16:07
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	5	$4.9K	2,743	2,742	+1	No	-$257	07-25 09:10
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	1	$4.0K	4,788	0	+4,788	No	+$788	08-10 13:49
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	2	$3.3K	3,497	0	+3,497	Yes	-$3,262	05-16 21:49
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$3.2K	3,278	0	+3,278	Yes	+$78	07-17 21:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	1	$3.0K	3,181	0	+3,181	Yes	+$181	10-10 03:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	1	$3.0K	3,354	0	+3,354	open	—	10-25 10:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.0K	3,297	0	+3,297	Yes	-$3,000	05-02 07:35
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$3.0K	1,562	1,562	+0	open	—	06-23 23:22
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	3	$2.8K	3,199	0	+3,199	open	—	10-05 13:53
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	2	$2.5K	2,639	0	+2,639	Yes	+$139	10-13 11:43
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	2	$2.4K	1,429	1,429	+0	open	—	06-14 10:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.2K	2,522	0	+2,522	No	+$353	05-27 12:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	2	$2.1K	1,094	1,094	+0	Yes	+$91	10-25 10:15
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	2	$2.1K	1,053	1,053	+0	No	+$52	07-12 11:37
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$2.0K	2,018	0	+2,018	Yes	+$18	06-26 11:58
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$2.0K	2,178	0	+2,178	Yes	+$178	08-26 12:17
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	2	$2.0K	2,181	0	+2,181	open	—	09-13 09:24
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,105	0	+2,105	No	-$2,000	05-16 21:00
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	3	$1.9K	2,263	2,263	+0	Yes	+$98	07-12 11:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$1.8K	1,190	1,190	+0	Yes	-$202	06-14 10:34
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	2	$1.8K	2,008	0	+2,008	No	+$228	06-24 16:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.7K	10,733	0	+10,733	Yes	-$1,680	05-17 18:58
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.6K	2,051	0	+2,051	open	—	09-02 11:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 10:16:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	3,354	89¢	$3,000	0x318c8c…
10-25 10:15:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	7,275	99¢	$7,209	0x8af3ea…
10-25 10:15:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	1,094	100¢	$1,091	0x567d4c…
10-19 15:22:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0xa5c424…
10-16 11:10:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	1,094	91¢	$1,000	0x32a0e6…
10-16 11:10:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	7,275	89¢	$6,500	0x9ba9e5…
10-15 16:54:19	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	BUY	1,015	99¢	$1,000	0x335043…
10-15 16:53:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	1,274	94¢	$1,200	0xb7a376…
10-14 13:27:32	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	605	91¢	$550	0x84cca0…
10-13 11:44:13	ChatGPT Full Outage by November 30?	No	BUY	177	57¢	$100	0x1599fc…
10-13 11:43:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	741	81¢	$600	0xee0bb6…
10-13 11:43:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	1,540	97¢	$1,500	0xb31d91…
10-10 03:46:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0xee283b…
10-10 03:22:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	3,181	94¢	$3,000	0x519fcd…
10-09 19:19:05	ChatGPT Full Outage by November 30?	No	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0xedeb46…
10-09 18:07:23	ChatGPT Full Outage by November 30?	No	BUY	753	66¢	$500	0xcea607…
10-05 14:01:40	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0xdc82de…
10-05 13:53:14	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0xaf76db…
10-03 06:42:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x95fa3d…
10-02 22:20:29	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	BUY	1,487	67¢	$1,000	0xf21bf7…
09-30 13:29:45	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	436	34¢	$150	0x3313bb…
09-30 12:44:06	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xedfd2c…
09-30 12:43:56	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x4b29ff…
09-25 17:06:17	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1,394	72¢	$1,000	0x576c14…
09-25 17:00:39	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x72814b…
09-25 15:50:29	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xceb424…
09-25 10:49:02	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	795	63¢	$500	0x884301…
09-24 17:34:32	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0x05b158…
09-23 21:04:37	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xd0bf0f…
09-23 18:30:23	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	71	71¢	$50	0x51c2c1…
09-23 18:22:32	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x74b183…
09-23 17:24:11	ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x4454e3…
09-21 12:22:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	556	99¢	$552	0x5fda94…
09-21 12:21:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	244	90¢	$220	0x5738bd…
09-18 16:09:40	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	851	94¢	$800	0x5a3e65…
09-14 20:17:16	ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	No	BUY	564	89¢	$500	0xc112f7…
09-13 09:24:43	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	BUY	1,089	92¢	$1,000	0x20afcd…
09-13 07:39:12	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	BUY	1,092	92¢	$1,000	0x86b161…
09-11 14:36:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	556	90¢	$500	0x0dbf2b…
09-11 14:35:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	476	18¢	$86	0xbd9753…
09-11 12:46:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0xd0df69…
09-11 09:27:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x95cfa7…
09-08 15:26:19	ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	No	BUY	462	76¢	$350	0x0368e6…
09-07 11:27:06	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	851	94¢	$800	0xf01e2e…
09-04 15:23:04	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	179	84¢	$150	0x04882d…
09-03 17:05:15	ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	No	BUY	195	51¢	$100	0x6ee9e7…
09-02 11:51:45	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,051	78¢	$1,600	0x3d727b…
09-01 17:22:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	575	93¢	$535	0x346a0c…
09-01 10:31:40	ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	No	BUY	457	79¢	$360	0x2adfa6…
08-28 17:13:18	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,001	85¢	$850	0x4a9f97…
08-28 17:13:06	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,024	98¢	$1,000	0x4846a8…
08-28 10:30:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,042	96¢	$1,000	0x14fe47…
08-27 18:38:34	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0x4f98fe…
08-26 12:17:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,178	92¢	$2,000	0x370383…
08-22 21:08:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	1,033	97¢	$1,000	0xac7e43…
08-21 16:54:18	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,085	92¢	$1,000	0xb4ab95…
08-21 16:52:21	will iran target egypt by september 15 2026	No	BUY	1,018	98¢	$1,000	0xa048c6…
08-21 14:51:13	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	1,152	95¢	$1,100	0x94a0a7…
08-19 16:14:49	chatgpt full outage by august 31 20260715010037673	No	BUY	865	92¢	$800	0x918cad…
08-17 19:22:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	1,474	95¢	$1,400	0x9400cb…
08-10 13:49:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	4,788	84¢	$4,000	0x6c88e5…
08-10 08:17:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	1,138	88¢	$1,000	0x45a56a…
08-05 08:32:41	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	No	BUY	115	43¢	$50	0xce3789…
08-03 20:32:12	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x88d933…
08-03 11:07:54	another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	No	BUY	556	30¢	$165	0x11bfab…
08-03 11:07:27	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	No	BUY	771	78¢	$600	0xfe95b3…
08-02 20:28:27	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	No	BUY	710	70¢	$500	0x9f93e2…
07-25 09:12:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	3,614	75¢	$2,711	0x90355c…
07-25 09:10:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	2,742	85¢	$2,333	0xba5791…
07-22 19:17:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	1,242	97¢	$1,200	0xc2614e…
07-22 19:16:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3,614	83¢	$3,000	0x2c2db3…
07-21 21:24:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0x199b90…
07-21 17:27:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	366	93¢	$340	0xc037e8…
07-21 07:22:48	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x7c1ea5…
07-21 07:22:12	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x9a0cfb…
07-20 09:34:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x52b0b8…
07-19 20:20:57	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x67d2c2…
07-19 16:58:39	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	546	97¢	$530	0x6553a5…
07-17 21:04:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,278	98¢	$3,200	0xe7724d…
07-16 14:06:47	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	428	97¢	$417	0x3af547…
07-16 13:54:11	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	No	BUY	145	38¢	$55	0x42784b…
07-16 13:52:07	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	512	98¢	$500	0x352b43…
07-16 11:03:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	221	98¢	$217	0xa1840e…
07-13 18:59:59	megaquake by july 31 20260617190926646	No	BUY	632	95¢	$600	0x3ceb36…
07-13 18:50:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	533	94¢	$500	0x4ec183…
07-12 12:02:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	5,053	99¢	$5,000	0xa86411…
07-12 11:59:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	489	100¢	$486	0x8f3cd0…
07-12 11:58:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	246	89¢	$220	0xe00ad7…
07-12 11:37:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	1,053	100¢	$1,052	0xafc846…
07-12 11:37:05	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	2,263	45¢	$1,018	0x02fcff…
07-10 10:24:17	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	423	90¢	$380	0x041736…
07-10 10:21:50	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1,250	96¢	$1,200	0x1db6f7…
07-09 08:46:23	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	1,721	41¢	$700	0xcc13f0…
07-09 08:43:52	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	542	41¢	$220	0xcb6db2…
07-06 04:23:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1,013	99¢	$1,000	0xffb982…
07-02 09:36:07	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	221	90¢	$200	0xae0187…
07-02 08:50:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	489	90¢	$440	0x82a1bf…
06-30 07:06:02	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	No	BUY	1,012	99¢	$1,000	0xa20053…
06-30 07:01:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0xdb5107…
06-28 06:40:01	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	No	BUY	1,152	96¢	$1,100	0x392ab4…