Inferior-Assessment — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

208 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$228

$8.63K lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$234

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-09 05:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Politics

43% 88% +$41

Other

31% 100% +$22

Crypto

18% 97% -$9

Sports

5% 100% +$2

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+254	$228	92¢	$234	+$6	11-09 05:02
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-200	$0	0¢	$-0	$0	09-10 01:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$942	487	487	+0	No	+$10	10-28 11:44
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$494	252	252	+0	Yes	+$1	10-29 15:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$337	175	175	+0	No	+$0	08-25 14:11
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$322	164	164	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 19:45
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$247	221	221	+0	Yes	-$19	09-10 00:09
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$228	254	0	+254	open	—	11-09 05:02
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$223	237	0	+237	Yes	+$14	10-25 23:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$220	221	0	+221	No	+$1	09-05 15:11
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	2	$214	112	112	+0	No	+$1	09-01 17:46
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$212	212	0	+212	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:09
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	1	$203	204	0	+204	Yes	+$1	06-27 23:39
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$202	203	0	+203	Yes	+$1	06-26 06:23
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	08-06 12:58
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$0	08-05 06:34
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$196	197	0	+197	Yes	+$1	09-17 23:15
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$196	196	0	+196	No	+$0	09-15 22:50
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$191	194	0	+194	Yes	+$3	09-10 14:06
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	8	$189	99	99	+0	No	+$8	10-01 00:33
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$186	187	0	+187	No	+$1	08-09 17:40
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$179	180	0	+180	No	+$0	08-22 01:50
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$178	179	0	+179	Yes	+$2	08-18 18:22
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$173	179	0	+179	No	+$6	08-13 17:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$171	173	0	+173	No	+$2	08-11 16:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$170	171	0	+171	No	+$1	08-10 19:43
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$167	169	0	+169	Yes	+$2	05-04 08:40
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$153	154	0	+154	Yes	+$1	05-09 19:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$143	145	0	+145	No	+$2	05-15 15:11
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	2	$131	66	66	+0	No	+$0	09-29 08:27
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$121	241	58	+184	No	-$3	10-23 06:07
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$119	121	0	+121	Yes	+$2	07-29 17:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 05:02:24	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	254	90¢	$228	0x2771c7…
10-29 15:16:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	252	98¢	$248	0xd78f63…
10-29 09:30:13	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	252	98¢	$246	0x311081…
10-28 11:44:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	250	98¢	$245	0x29f48b…
10-28 07:22:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0xc767db…
10-28 06:16:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	237	98¢	$231	0xdbaf3c…
10-28 02:18:24	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6adc6e…
10-27 20:55:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	237	95¢	$224	0xc89cdc…
10-25 23:31:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	237	94¢	$223	0xf9a11b…
10-23 06:07:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	58	23¢	$13	0xbd3461…
10-20 22:07:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	150	21¢	$31	0x2269f0…
10-20 04:48:15	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x412deb…
10-15 20:47:56	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0xfb9378…
10-14 23:44:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	92	83¢	$76	0xd5e250…
10-13 06:55:08	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd60fb8…
10-12 18:31:56	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4c536b…
10-12 10:53:18	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $60M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0x9f7b90…
10-08 13:28:41	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x6c54c5…
10-06 02:25:03	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x03cb81…
10-05 00:09:23	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	212	100¢	$212	0x140869…
10-04 20:42:07	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x0d26d9…
10-04 19:45:22	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	164	98¢	$161	0x12bdad…
10-04 02:57:08	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xc55644…
10-02 03:32:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	164	98¢	$161	0x0b267c…
10-01 02:00:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xe400ed…
10-01 00:33:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x42a5fa…
10-01 00:13:14	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x25b8e0…
10-01 00:12:18	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x53f90c…
09-30 23:58:02	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xeb2ec4…
09-30 23:49:18	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x169770…
09-30 23:25:56	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x058e1e…
09-30 22:53:18	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x5f636c…
09-30 18:56:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0xe067b3…
09-29 08:27:41	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x12328b…
09-27 15:46:27	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x90f7b2…
09-26 15:30:02	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd71900…
09-25 00:23:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	99	92¢	$91	0xe3353d…
09-24 19:40:21	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x171c95…
09-23 14:52:46	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb0c65d…
09-22 12:00:42	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x39cee4…
09-17 23:15:19	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0xa3ecae…
09-15 22:50:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	196	100¢	$196	0xf86017…
09-10 14:06:15	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	194	99¢	$191	0x8b805b…
09-10 04:09:55	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf6d78d…
09-10 01:00:31	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x3994a3…
09-10 00:09:49	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	221	51¢	$114	0xf195bd…
09-09 18:15:57	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	221	60¢	$133	0x5d7449…
09-05 15:11:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	221	99¢	$220	0x490292…
09-01 17:46:51	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	SELL	112	96¢	$107	0xf8e026…
08-28 20:59:57	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	112	95¢	$107	0x30c32b…
08-27 11:11:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x12149e…
08-25 14:11:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	175	96¢	$168	0xe790cd…
08-25 08:36:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	96¢	$168	0x334a60…
08-24 15:09:51	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x05a047…
08-22 01:50:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	180	100¢	$179	0xa7b16c…
08-18 18:22:37	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	179	99¢	$178	0x617bce…
08-15 04:35:37	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x53de4d…
08-13 17:24:58	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	179	97¢	$173	0x735a77…
08-11 16:31:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	173	99¢	$171	0x839a0b…
08-10 19:43:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0x8d45a1…
08-10 17:09:55	will wti dip to 55 in august 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe2a2b4…
08-10 08:04:01	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xdf46fc…
08-09 17:40:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	187	100¢	$186	0xe0bcb8…
08-09 15:42:31	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4d56d0…
08-09 01:16:58	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x2751f2…
08-06 15:37:08	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7821d1…
08-06 12:58:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x328d42…
08-05 06:34:23	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x9182c1…
08-04 21:56:32	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x23651d…
07-30 07:50:12	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7902e4…
07-30 01:27:33	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x05cf57…
07-29 17:06:39	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	121	98¢	$119	0x558b17…
07-29 14:39:20	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5679fe…
07-29 12:50:48	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xfeaafb…
07-25 09:24:07	will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fae90…
07-24 21:53:22	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd68fb…
07-21 19:32:18	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb76beb…
07-20 20:41:49	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xf1514d…
07-19 15:29:18	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x223eb9…
07-17 21:26:43	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3b65f9…
07-17 06:31:43	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xf3dd5f…
07-16 21:24:49	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x8b950d…
07-11 06:35:20	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb8e4fe…
07-06 02:57:13	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x0b9457…
06-29 20:14:38	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xad188d…
06-29 14:54:50	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4e1fd4…
06-29 14:22:16	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x38fde7…
06-29 13:37:01	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x66a079…
06-29 04:30:14	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4f8e95…
06-29 00:18:23	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x59c9f3…
06-28 17:34:59	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8f0fb8…
06-28 13:46:52	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	38	100¢	$37	0x2ba081…
06-28 13:20:46	will openais valuation hit low 700b by june 30	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x0685c4…
06-27 23:39:34	Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	204	99¢	$203	0xbe65e1…
06-26 09:21:01	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x057567…
06-26 06:23:37	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$202	0x3aff5d…
05-30 12:14:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x92e4d2…
05-29 07:57:37	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0xfd86b2…
05-28 21:07:40	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0xdded80…
05-28 13:35:32	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x90d6ca…