Tricky-Garden — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$54

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

Trades

131

lifetime

Volume

$566

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-20

last 06-07 11:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

50% 0% $-55

Other

49% 100% +$1

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No		+4	$4	96¢	$4	+$0	06-07 11:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	3	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	05-04 04:13
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	4	$75	39	39	+0	Yes	+$1	05-01 23:28
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	3	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	04-30 12:34
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$35	25	25	+0	open	—	04-27 18:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$34	47	2	+45	Yes	$-31	05-08 18:00
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	2	$25	60	0	+60	Yes	$-25	05-08 18:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	+$0	05-01 16:28
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	2	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	05-01 18:23
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-12 19:35
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$16	14	14	+0	open	—	04-02 19:00
cs2 vit navi 2026 04 17	3	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-17 18:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	5	$8	2,858	0	+2,858	open	—	04-23 08:32
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	3	$8	7	7	+0	open	—	04-07 19:25
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-27 17:26
lal esp get 2026 03 21 total 1pt5	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-21 17:04
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	4	$6	10	10	+0	open	—	04-11 22:10
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-09 10:17
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?	4	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-28 13:07
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	2	$6	9	9	+0	open	—	03-23 14:42
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$6	12	12	+0	open	—	04-07 20:56
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-29 09:26
sea com pis 2026 03 22 total 2pt5	2	$5	4	3	+0	open	—	03-22 13:21
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	3	$5	9	4	+5	open	—	03-29 17:11
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-05 20:25
cs2 prv vit 2026 03 23	4	$5	12	12	+0	open	—	03-23 18:28
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	3	$5	6	6	+0	open	—	03-28 10:16
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	1	$5	300	0	+300	open	—	05-11 14:51
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-28 08:32
efl ars mnc 2026 03 22 mnc win	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	03-22 19:14
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	2	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	04-08 19:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 11:26:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xe3ded6…
05-11 14:51:02	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$5	0xdcdde6…
05-08 18:38:12	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x792087…
05-08 18:00:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x16459f…
05-07 18:28:10	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xb046a9…
05-04 04:13:28	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x76730f…
05-03 18:31:16	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xec9da3…
05-03 18:20:52	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x76d833…
05-01 23:28:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x5bbaa7…
05-01 18:23:34	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x6e38a6…
05-01 16:35:30	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x9dd5fa…
05-01 16:28:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0xbcd7e6…
05-01 14:23:30	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x67068b…
05-01 14:10:12	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x1dd783…
04-30 16:40:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x44e057…
04-30 15:53:56	Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x8e7d14…
04-30 14:49:52	Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x4c0053…
04-30 13:37:32	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x204892…
04-30 12:34:46	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0x386529…
04-29 07:32:30	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	90¢	$12	0x3800e9…
04-28 18:33:00	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x0e7fff…
04-28 08:32:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xbdb811…
04-27 18:15:06	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x24e24d…
04-27 13:50:22	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x263804…
04-26 15:26:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x6c8847…
04-26 12:33:54	Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?	Yes	BUY	888	0¢	$1	0xdd8d8a…
04-26 12:33:54	Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?	Yes	BUY	112	0¢	$0	0x007870…
04-25 16:33:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x3fc493…
04-25 10:30:44	Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x513c05…
04-23 12:40:16	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x965d89…
04-23 08:32:16	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd05c8e…
04-22 13:54:52	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,800	0¢	$4	0x39fc43…
04-21 07:33:02	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x9d4b33…
04-20 17:23:16	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x08085a…
04-20 17:19:46	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x911b47…
04-19 23:59:14	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x1d6f1e…
04-19 09:44:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xf3afe3…
04-19 09:44:46	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x2778a3…
04-18 08:46:54	cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 04 18	Team Falcons	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xbb696d…
04-18 08:45:02	cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 04 18	Team Falcons	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x12293d…
04-17 21:30:58	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x7cb968…
04-17 18:37:42	cs2 vit navi 2026 04 17	Vitality	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0xd60249…
04-17 17:41:20	btc updown 5m 1776447300	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x16abdc…
04-17 17:40:02	btc updown 5m 1776447300	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x29467f…
04-17 17:33:06	cs2 vit navi 2026 04 17	Vitality	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8778d9…
04-17 17:31:44	cs2 vit navi 2026 04 17	Vitality	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf665c0…
04-17 16:13:14	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x5829b6…
04-15 18:06:20	Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xbe22bc…
04-14 10:19:19	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x507953…
04-13 21:30:39	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa5aa15…
04-13 15:17:09	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe767c7…
04-12 19:35:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x5bf160…
04-12 17:39:53	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xacd14c…
04-12 17:03:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x64d62f…
04-12 12:30:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x38062d…
04-11 22:10:09	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	No	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xc5fdd6…
04-11 18:15:27	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xfc3c79…
04-11 15:26:25	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xe68939…
04-09 10:17:57	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x8fa400…
04-09 07:03:55	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x8d983b…
04-08 20:57:47	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x8e5642…
04-08 19:38:21	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe461e7…
04-08 19:36:49	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xcc9eb8…
04-07 20:56:29	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0xaf6e51…
04-07 19:25:13	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0x4c6f00…
04-07 08:55:33	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x001f6e…
04-07 08:54:23	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd57a56…
04-05 20:25:17	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x3195e7…
04-05 20:04:27	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9a69a0…
04-05 20:02:23	Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdf83f1…
04-02 19:00:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x4ffb1c…
04-02 16:28:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xbf7f1f…
04-01 20:15:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xc686b7…
03-31 18:05:43	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x364042…
03-31 17:59:39	will russia enter novyi donbas by march 31	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x1ec865…
03-31 17:59:31	will russia enter rai oleksandrivka by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x5b0697…
03-30 17:39:11	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x5c3377…
03-30 11:53:16	will russia enter rai oleksandrivka by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x0fe5dd…
03-30 11:51:04	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x853d30…
03-29 17:22:20	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf390c4…
03-29 17:11:16	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x368aef…
03-29 14:41:06	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x462608…
03-29 12:57:12	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8b0a5c…
03-29 09:26:34	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x46f956…
03-28 20:31:10	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x56682d…
03-28 16:02:41	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdcef3a…
03-28 13:19:03	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x8b24aa…
03-28 13:07:27	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x856317…
03-28 10:19:49	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xb66bb7…
03-28 10:16:03	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	No	SELL	6	41¢	$3	0x965d30…
03-28 09:43:19	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	No	BUY	4	39¢	$1	0xbe85f7…
03-28 09:42:51	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6e8214…
03-27 22:37:19	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0x06cb73…
03-27 17:26:05	us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xc99c72…
03-27 15:03:03	will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x9545f2…
03-27 15:02:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$0	0x0e163f…
03-27 13:22:51	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0xc1f67b…
03-27 13:22:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x3ac73b…
03-26 16:19:05	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3f9b65…
03-26 16:12:35	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	69¢	$2	0x7b3665…