Nautical-Hair — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$85

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

65.5%

Resolved

301

Trades

513

lifetime

Volume

$1.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-02

last 10-28 17:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

79% 63% -$43

Crypto

18% 69% -$3

Sports

3% 0% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes		+857	$5	0¢	$3	-$2	10-28 17:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	7	$53	38	38	+0	open	—	10-18 15:34
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	8	$49	49	49	+0	cancelled	-$1	06-10 14:55
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	10	$40	63	20	+43	Yes	-$36	07-11 09:21
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	1	$40	111	0	+111	Cavaliers	-$40	10-26 17:06
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15?	11	$33	32	32	+0	Yes	-$3	06-15 10:33
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	2	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	10-18 15:34
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?	4	$30	19	19	+0	No	+$2	06-20 05:41
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22?	4	$27	16	16	+0	Yes	-$1	06-22 10:10
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27?	4	$23	13	13	+0	No	+$1	06-27 16:05
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	10-18 15:36
New pandemic in 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	06-26 14:49
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	06-14 11:14
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13?	2	$17	12	12	+0	Yes	+$7	06-13 11:37
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02?	2	$15	9	9	+0	Yes	+$3	06-02 19:12
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17?	4	$13	17	17	+0	No	-$2	06-17 05:33
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15?	4	$13	22	22	+0	No	-$3	06-15 07:02
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	06-18 04:02
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	06-26 18:02
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19?	2	$12	18	18	+0	No	+$2	06-19 04:05
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	06-20 04:02
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12?	2	$12	15	15	+0	No	+$2	06-11 18:06
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16?	2	$12	11	11	+0	No	+$2	06-16 05:22
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21?	2	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$2	06-21 17:09
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev	2	$11	6	6	+0	Alexander Zverev	+$1	06-02 16:44
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13?	2	$11	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-13 04:37
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	06-21 03:52
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 7?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	06-07 10:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:35 UTC	3	$11	10	7	+3	Up	-$1	06-09 08:37
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	06-19 07:22
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16?	2	$11	13	13	+0	No	+$1	06-16 03:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 17:58:01	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	857	1¢	$5	0x1fa3f6…
10-28 17:57:46	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	24	22¢	$5	0x916fe0…
10-26 17:06:59	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0x0dc104…
10-26 16:51:15	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xccb5f9…
10-18 15:36:02	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0x6f3452…
10-18 15:34:18	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x9e5cae…
10-18 15:34:12	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$16	0x474702…
07-11 09:21:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$1	0xce46b5…
06-27 17:08:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xbf71ab…
06-27 16:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe07e04…
06-27 15:31:40	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xb08586…
06-27 15:16:50	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc338fd…
06-27 14:11:38	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 27?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x07fcd2…
06-27 14:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27?	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0xbb0289…
06-27 14:09:13	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27?	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x3e80f4…
06-27 13:14:26	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xc682bc…
06-26 18:02:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26?	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xb9401a…
06-26 18:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x473fe2…
06-26 16:34:53	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xca6ce0…
06-26 16:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$0	0xe84320…
06-26 16:19:05	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7c0cfb…
06-26 16:18:32	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x4ef0d1…
06-26 15:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xed9130…
06-26 14:57:44	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x606ac1…
06-26 14:49:29	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xcd61c9…
06-25 16:25:35	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xfe7e64…
06-25 16:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0x5e928b…
06-25 15:48:31	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x28bbbd…
06-25 03:42:58	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x82afdf…
06-24 16:49:10	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xadbb57…
06-24 16:48:46	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24?	No	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x9d5a5a…
06-24 09:13:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x8a1e91…
06-24 08:29:16	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 24?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3029aa…
06-24 07:52:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x885232…
06-24 07:11:31	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xbdf465…
06-24 06:39:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0x74edcb…
06-24 06:38:37	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x6d5a67…
06-24 06:38:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8808f4…
06-24 06:36:46	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x0dbfc4…
06-23 08:28:49	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe73590…
06-23 06:31:29	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xf78f77…
06-23 06:31:20	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xe2b950…
06-23 06:30:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x4015e3…
06-23 06:13:35	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd85392…
06-23 06:13:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x96a0a8…
06-22 17:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x783947…
06-22 16:37:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0xcdf59e…
06-22 16:37:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$2	0x53e615…
06-22 14:04:56	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xf1e9eb…
06-22 10:19:13	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 23?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3b398f…
06-22 10:10:35	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x097606…
06-22 09:28:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x2f993c…
06-22 07:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x511e51…
06-22 07:32:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9d85f1…
06-22 05:15:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x74741f…
06-21 19:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x7d457f…
06-21 18:25:31	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x64bc35…
06-21 18:15:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21?	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xe56f4c…
06-21 18:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbded5d…
06-21 17:47:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xb61141…
06-21 17:09:44	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x578433…
06-21 09:14:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2921a9…
06-21 09:12:20	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xc31a99…
06-21 09:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5c8879…
06-21 08:53:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xba802c…
06-21 03:52:08	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x07e683…
06-20 18:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x2e6179…
06-20 18:09:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x72e927…
06-20 18:06:07	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xe593f0…
06-20 16:50:44	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20?	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x2802aa…
06-20 09:12:40	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x898945…
06-20 09:03:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xdc106b…
06-20 07:29:14	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xf48ea2…
06-20 05:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x5532b6…
06-20 05:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x2ced03…
06-20 04:02:47	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x52747d…
06-20 04:02:28	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5a37a4…
06-19 16:25:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc28f6e…
06-19 14:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x87adcb…
06-19 14:34:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0xd6f1f1…
06-19 08:02:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xd7c7b7…
06-19 08:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?	No	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x91ccf5…
06-19 07:48:29	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xd7bd03…
06-19 07:39:50	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xb4ebe5…
06-19 07:29:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x52b843…
06-19 07:28:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xf406c9…
06-19 07:22:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x40afce…
06-19 05:14:02	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xc391e8…
06-19 04:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19?	Yes	SELL	18	42¢	$7	0x761ad0…
06-18 18:09:25	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xac8e91…
06-18 18:09:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xa9839e…
06-18 06:07:32	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18?	No	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xf033e4…
06-18 04:15:58	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd406a1…
06-18 04:15:32	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xbb2489…
06-18 04:13:58	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x088e9e…
06-18 04:08:58	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x7f7378…
06-18 04:02:28	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x586327…
06-18 03:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xaba79f…
06-18 03:32:41	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7c0b37…
06-17 08:45:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8fc37a…